The TownvsTacoma Defiance
The Town 1–2 Tacoma Defiance
All 4 AIs backed Tacoma Defiance — and reality agreed.
- AI lean
- Tacoma Defiance 4/4
- Correct calls
- 4/4
- Final
- 1–2
Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.
AI predictions
8 markets · 4 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
16 models × 8 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
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Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
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Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
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Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
1-1 1/4 models |
The Town +0.5 1/4 models |
Tacoma Defiance 2/4 models |
Draw / Tacoma Defiance 2/4 models |
Tacoma Defiance 4/4 models |
over 3/4 models |
yes 3/4 models |
Tacoma Defiance 4/4 models |
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Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
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Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
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Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
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GPT-4o Mini Openai |
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Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
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o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
18%
1-2
W
|
53%
Tacoma Defiance +0.25
W
|
48%
Tacoma Defiance |
29%
Draw / Tacoma Defiance |
55%
Tacoma Defiance
W
|
58%
over
W
|
61%
yes
W
|
42%
Tacoma Defiance
W
|
|
|
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
18%
1-2 Low-scoring home side meets a high-output visitor that already won 1-0 here. 1-2 captures the expected narrow away win with both teams scori...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
53%
Tacoma Defiance +0.25 Asian line near even but Tacoma's H2H win and higher goal output give slight value on the away quarter-ball. Equal rest days remove fatigue...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Tacoma Defiance The -1 spread favors the home side slightly on paper but Tacoma's road scoring and recent result here keep the away spread viable. Home side...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
29%
Draw / Tacoma Defiance Tacoma often trails early yet finishes strong per their form pattern. The Town struggle to hold leads at home so draw at half and away win a...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
55%
Tacoma Defiance Draws occur often in MLS Next Pro but Tacoma's attacking output and prior win here tilt the no-draw edge to the visitors. The Town have draw...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
over Combined goal rates from both teams' last five matches exceed 3.8 per game. Tacoma's high-scoring away form and The Town's open home games s...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
61%
yes Both sides concede regularly and score in most fixtures. The single prior H2H ended 0-1 but recent form for both suggests both will find the...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
42%
Tacoma Defiance Tacoma Defiance arrive with stronger recent scoring output and a 1-0 H2H win at this venue. The Town's home record shows only one win in fiv... |
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Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Gemini 2.5 Flash |
18%
0-1
L
|
58%
The Town +0.5
L
|
40%
The Town +1 |
25%
Draw / Tacoma Defiance |
58%
Tacoma Defiance
W
|
55%
Over
W
|
58%
Yes
W
|
42%
Tacoma Defiance
W
|
|
|
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
18%
0-1 The previous head-to-head match finished 0-1, which aligns with Tacoma's slight advantage and The Town's tighter defensive tendencies at hom...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
58%
The Town +0.5 This market is equivalent to betting on the match winner or draw. The Town +0.5 essentially means The Town to win or draw, reflecting a high...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
The Town +1 While Tacoma Defiance is slightly favored to win, The Town's home advantage and recent H2H result (a narrow 0-1 loss) suggest they can keep...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
25%
Draw / Tacoma Defiance Given The Town's tendency for draws and Tacoma Defiance's ability to finish strong, a draw at halftime followed by an away win is a strong p...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
58%
Tacoma Defiance Removing the draw outcome, Tacoma Defiance remains the favored side given their stronger recent form and the positive head-to-head result. T...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Over Tacoma Defiance's recent games have been high-scoring, with 12 goals scored and 12 conceded in five matches (averaging 4.8 goals per game)....
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
58%
Yes Both teams have shown vulnerability in defense, with Tacoma conceding in all five recent matches and The Town conceding in four. Tacoma also...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
42%
Tacoma Defiance Based on the provided form, Tacoma Defiance has a slightly better record over their last five games (2W-0D-3L) compared to The Town (1W-2D-2... |
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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
20%
1-1
L
|
48%
away_ 0.25 |
50%
Tacoma Defiance |
30%
draw_draw |
48%
Tacoma Defiance
W
|
55%
over
W
|
55%
yes
W
|
45%
Tacoma Defiance
W
|
|
|
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
20%
1-1 Considering the teams' recent scoring and conceding records, a low-scoring draw seems a likely outcome. Both teams have demonstrated the abi...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
48%
away_ 0.25 Tacoma Defiance is marginally favored in this matchup. The +0.25 handicap for the away team offers a good balance between potential reward a...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
50%
Tacoma Defiance Tacoma Defiance is slightly favored to win this match. Given their slight edge and the tendency for close games, picking them with a -1 spre...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
30%
draw_draw Given the relatively even standing of the teams based on their recent form and the single head-to-head result, a draw at halftime seems plau...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
48%
Tacoma Defiance Tacoma Defiance is slightly favored to win, and this market offers a reduced risk by removing the draw option. Their marginally better recen...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have shown a tendency to concede goals, with Tacoma Defiance conceding 12 and The Town conceding 7 in their last 5 matches respec...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
yes Given that Tacoma Defiance has scored 12 and conceded 12 in their last 5 matches, and The Town has scored 5 and conceded 7, there is a good...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Tacoma Defiance Based on training data, Tacoma Defiance has a slight edge over The Town. Although their recent form is mixed, Tacoma Defiance won their only... |
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DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
12%
2-1
L
|
45%
away_ -0.5 |
35%
away_ -1 |
25%
away_away |
55%
Tacoma Defiance
W
|
50%
over
W
|
55%
yes
W
|
45%
Tacoma Defiance
W
|
|
|
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
12%
2-1 Given Tacoma's attacking edge and The Town's ability to score, a 2-1 away win is a plausible scoreline. Other close scorelines like 1-1 and...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
45%
away_ -0.5 Tacoma are the stronger side but the half-goal line makes the bet binary. They are more likely to win outright based on form and h2h. Traini...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
35%
away_ -1 Tacoma are favored but not by a large margin. A -1 spread requires them to win by 2+, which is not a strong likelihood given their inconsist...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
25%
away_away Tacoma are likely to lead at half-time and hold on for a win, given their superior quality. The most probable half-time/full-time outcome is...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
55%
Tacoma Defiance With the draw removed, Tacoma's edge over The Town increases. Their better form and head-to-head win make them the likely winner. Training d...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
50%
over Tacoma's matches average 4.8 goals, and The Town's 2.4 per game. Both defenses leak goals. Training data through 2025-09 suggests high-scori...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
yes Both teams have shown scoring and conceding trends. Tacoma score often but also concede, while The Town has scored in most matches. Training...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Tacoma Defiance Tacoma Defiance have superior recent form and won the only head-to-head. The Town are struggling at home with one win in five. Training data... |
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Correct score
Consensus1-1 1/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
18%
1-2
W
Low-scoring home side meets a high-output visitor that already won 1-0 here. 1-2 captures the expected narrow away win with both teams scori...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
18%
0-1
L
The previous head-to-head match finished 0-1, which aligns with Tacoma's slight advantage and The Town's tighter defensive tendencies at hom...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
20%
1-1
L
Considering the teams' recent scoring and conceding records, a low-scoring draw seems a likely outcome. Both teams have demonstrated the abi...
DeepSeek V3
12%
2-1
L
Given Tacoma's attacking edge and The Town's ability to score, a 2-1 away win is a plausible scoreline. Other close scorelines like 1-1 and...
Asian handicap
ConsensusThe Town +0.5 1/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Tacoma Defiance +0.25
W
Asian line near even but Tacoma's H2H win and higher goal output give slight value on the away quarter-ball. Equal rest days remove fatigue...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
The Town +0.5
L
This market is equivalent to betting on the match winner or draw. The Town +0.5 essentially means The Town to win or draw, reflecting a high...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
48%
away_ 0.25
Tacoma Defiance is marginally favored in this matchup. The +0.25 handicap for the away team offers a good balance between potential reward a...
DeepSeek V3
45%
away_ -0.5
Tacoma are the stronger side but the half-goal line makes the bet binary. They are more likely to win outright based on form and h2h. Traini...
Spread
ConsensusTacoma Defiance 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
48%
Tacoma Defiance
The -1 spread favors the home side slightly on paper but Tacoma's road scoring and recent result here keep the away spread viable. Home side...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
40%
The Town +1
While Tacoma Defiance is slightly favored to win, The Town's home advantage and recent H2H result (a narrow 0-1 loss) suggest they can keep...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
50%
Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma Defiance is slightly favored to win this match. Given their slight edge and the tendency for close games, picking them with a -1 spre...
DeepSeek V3
35%
away_ -1
Tacoma are favored but not by a large margin. A -1 spread requires them to win by 2+, which is not a strong likelihood given their inconsist...
Half-time / Full-time
ConsensusDraw / Tacoma Defiance 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
29%
Draw / Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma often trails early yet finishes strong per their form pattern. The Town struggle to hold leads at home so draw at half and away win a...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
25%
Draw / Tacoma Defiance
Given The Town's tendency for draws and Tacoma Defiance's ability to finish strong, a draw at halftime followed by an away win is a strong p...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
30%
draw_draw
Given the relatively even standing of the teams based on their recent form and the single head-to-head result, a draw at halftime seems plau...
DeepSeek V3
25%
away_away
Tacoma are likely to lead at half-time and hold on for a win, given their superior quality. The most probable half-time/full-time outcome is...
Draw no bet
ConsensusTacoma Defiance 4/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
55%
Tacoma Defiance
W
Draws occur often in MLS Next Pro but Tacoma's attacking output and prior win here tilt the no-draw edge to the visitors. The Town have draw...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
Tacoma Defiance
W
Removing the draw outcome, Tacoma Defiance remains the favored side given their stronger recent form and the positive head-to-head result. T...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
48%
Tacoma Defiance
W
Tacoma Defiance is slightly favored to win, and this market offers a reduced risk by removing the draw option. Their marginally better recen...
DeepSeek V3
55%
Tacoma Defiance
W
With the draw removed, Tacoma's edge over The Town increases. Their better form and head-to-head win make them the likely winner. Training d...
Over / Under
Consensusover 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
58%
over
W
Combined goal rates from both teams' last five matches exceed 3.8 per game. Tacoma's high-scoring away form and The Town's open home games s...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Over
W
Tacoma Defiance's recent games have been high-scoring, with 12 goals scored and 12 conceded in five matches (averaging 4.8 goals per game)....
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
over
W
Both teams have shown a tendency to concede goals, with Tacoma Defiance conceding 12 and The Town conceding 7 in their last 5 matches respec...
DeepSeek V3
50%
over
W
Tacoma's matches average 4.8 goals, and The Town's 2.4 per game. Both defenses leak goals. Training data through 2025-09 suggests high-scori...
Both teams to score
Consensusyes 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
61%
yes
W
Both sides concede regularly and score in most fixtures. The single prior H2H ended 0-1 but recent form for both suggests both will find the...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
Yes
W
Both teams have shown vulnerability in defense, with Tacoma conceding in all five recent matches and The Town conceding in four. Tacoma also...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
yes
W
Given that Tacoma Defiance has scored 12 and conceded 12 in their last 5 matches, and The Town has scored 5 and conceded 7, there is a good...
DeepSeek V3
55%
yes
W
Both teams have shown scoring and conceding trends. Tacoma score often but also concede, while The Town has scored in most matches. Training...
Match winner
ConsensusTacoma Defiance 4/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
42%
Tacoma Defiance
W
Tacoma Defiance arrive with stronger recent scoring output and a 1-0 H2H win at this venue. The Town's home record shows only one win in fiv...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
42%
Tacoma Defiance
W
Based on the provided form, Tacoma Defiance has a slightly better record over their last five games (2W-0D-3L) compared to The Town (1W-2D-2...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
45%
Tacoma Defiance
W
Based on training data, Tacoma Defiance has a slight edge over The Town. Although their recent form is mixed, Tacoma Defiance won their only...
DeepSeek V3
45%
Tacoma Defiance
W
Tacoma Defiance have superior recent form and won the only head-to-head. The Town are struggling at home with one win in five. Training data...
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Tacoma Defiance
DeepSeek V3
Tacoma Defiance
Grok 4 Fast
Tacoma Defiance
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Tacoma Defiance
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Beat the AIs · Predict the score
Picks closed
Match has already kicked off. Picks are permanent — no late entries.
Team news
ProInjuries and confirmed lineups — the same team news the AIs factored into their reads.
Team news is a Pro feature
see exactly who's out and the XIs the AIs reasoned on, before kickoff.
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
510bbd41deba86a5…
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 6 · 02:30 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Draw no bet · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time · Correct score
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System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 8. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 8, in this order): h2h | draw_no_bet | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 37813,
"sport": "football",
"venue": "PayPal Park",
"league": "MLS Next Pro",
"starts_at": "2026-09-06T02:30:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 06 Sep 2026 02:30:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Tacoma Defiance",
"home": "The Town"
},
"version": "v2",
"sport_focus": [
"Weight CONFIRMED team news heavily: a missing first-choice striker, creator, or centre-back swings a match more than season-long form.",
"Compare attacking vs defensive quality directly — clean-sheet rate and goals-conceded trend often predict unders/BTTS better than the win line.",
"Set pieces decide tight games: note corner/free-kick threat and aerial mismatches.",
"Account for fixture congestion + likely rotation (midweek European or cup games before this one) and the home/away form split.",
"For outdoor venues, factor heavy rain or strong wind — both suppress goals and favour the under.",
"Tactical style matters: a high-press side vs a possession side, or two defensive setups, shapes the goals expectation."
],
"team_context": {
"note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
"away_form": {
"last": "LWLLW",
"record": "2W-0D-3L",
"scored": 12,
"matches": 5,
"conceded": 12
},
"home_form": {
"last": "WLDLD",
"record": "1W-2D-2L",
"scored": 5,
"matches": 5,
"conceded": 7
},
"rest_days": {
"away": 6,
"home": 6
},
"head_to_head": {
"recent": [
"2026-07-13: The Town 0–1 Tacoma Defiance"
],
"matches": 1
}
},
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"draw_no_bet",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft",
"correct_score"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
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