- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico avg 1.0
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea avg 2.0
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic avg 3.0
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa avg 4.0
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2026 World Cup · Group Stage AI Predictions
13 frontier AI models · 12 groups · 48 teams · same brief. Knockout-stage predictions will lock as a separate snapshot closer to the end of group play.
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Arena consensus per group
Mean predicted finish across all 13 models
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland avg 1.0
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada avg 2.2
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina avg 2.9
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar avg 4.0
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany avg 1.0
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador avg 2.2
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast avg 2.8
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao avg 4.0
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands avg 1.2
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan avg 2.1
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden avg 2.8
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia avg 4.0
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain avg 1.1
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay avg 1.9
- 3 🇨🇻 Cape Verde avg 3.5
- 4 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia avg 3.5
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium avg 1.0
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt avg 2.2
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran avg 2.9
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand avg 4.0
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal avg 1.0
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia avg 2.0
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo avg 3.1
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan avg 3.9
Who picked what
Each model's group winner. Bold = matches arena consensus.
| Model | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | Align |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
o3
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇸🇪 SE | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 11/12 |
|
GPT-4o Mini
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 12/12 |
|
GPT-5 Mini
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇯🇵 JP | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 11/12 |
|
GPT-5
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇺🇾 UY | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 11/12 |
Gemini 2.5 Flash
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 12/12 |
Claude Opus 4.6
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 12/12 |
DeepSeek V3
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 12/12 |
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 12/12 |
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇹🇷 TR | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 11/12 |
Grok 4 Fast
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 12/12 |
|
Claude Haiku 4.5
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 12/12 |
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 12/12 |
|
Claude Opus 4.7
|
🇲🇽 MX | 🇨🇭 CH | 🇺🇸 US | 🇧🇷 BR | 🇩🇪 DE | 🇳🇱 NL | 🇪🇸 ES | 🇧🇪 BE | 🇫🇷 FR | 🇦🇷 AR | 🇵🇹 PT | 🏴 GB-ENG | 12/12 |
Per-model deep dive
Click any model to open the full bracket + reasoning.
o3
FlagshipAligned with arena 11/12 groups · 73% confidence · locked 1 day ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 2 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 3 🇯🇵 Japan
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
- 4 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇳🇴 Norway
- 3 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇸🇪 Sweden
Easiest group call
Group E
The model's reasoning
I leaned heavily on head-to-head bookmaker prices and historical tournament strength, projecting favourites to convert their short odds in most fixtures. Group E looks straightforward: Germany are massive favourites in every match while Curaçao are long shots, leaving Ecuador and Ivory Coast to fight for second. My lone contrarian call is Sweden topping Group F; their balanced squad matches up well with a Netherlands side that the markets still favour, and the fixture list gives Sweden a chance to steal points late. Elsewhere I expect powerhouses like Brazil, France, Spain and Argentina to cruise, while Canada’s improvement should see them edge Bosnia for the runner-up spot in Group B. Overall the odds profile across remaining matches produces a clear ranking in most groups, with only a couple of tight second-place battles.
GPT-4o Mini
34-47 -25.2uAligned with arena 12/12 groups · 75% confidence · locked 1 day ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 3 🇨🇦 Canada
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 3 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
- 4 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 3 🇳🇴 Norway
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇹🇷 Turkey
Easiest group call
Group C
The model's reasoning
Mexico and South Korea have started strong in Group A and should maintain their positions. Switzerland, despite being the favorite, is expected to face challenges, projecting Bosnia and Canada in the battle for second place. Groups featuring heavyweights like Brazil, Germany, and France favor their dominance against less potent teams, yet unexpected outcomes can occur. My upset pick is Turkey, who can surprise USA and Australia with tactical play. Confidence remains high given the initial match results influencing potential outcomes in following fixtures.
GPT-5 Mini
30-17 +24.4uAligned with arena 11/12 groups · 72% confidence · locked 1 day ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 3 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇯🇵 Japan
- 2 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
- 4 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 3 🇳🇴 Norway
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇯🇵 Japan
Easiest group call
Group E
The model's reasoning
I weighed current standings, head-to-head momentum where available, and the bookmakers' implied probabilities from the remaining fixtures. Traditional regional powers and top-ranked sides (Brazil, Germany, Spain, France, Argentina, Portugal, England, USA) are projected to top their groups unless fixture odds or recent results suggest volatility. I picked one contrarian winner (Japan over Netherlands) because Japan's squad balance and tournament form make an upset plausible despite the market favoring the Dutch. For middle-seed groups I favored teams with deeper rosters and more consistent competitive records; smaller or debutant teams are placed lower but could still contest for third-place qualification.
GPT-5
FlagshipAligned with arena 11/12 groups · 68% confidence · locked 1 day ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 2 🇪🇸 Spain
- 3 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
- 4 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇳🇴 Norway
- 3 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇺🇾 Uruguay
Easiest group call
Group E
The model's reasoning
I leaned on bookmaker match odds as priors for relative team strength, adjusted for the single result already played in Groups A and C, and for likely goal-difference edges versus the weakest sides. Clear elite favorites (Brazil, Germany, France, Argentina, England, Belgium, Portugal, Spain) were projected to top their groups unless odds signaled otherwise. I pushed Uruguay to win Group G as the deliberate upset: despite Spain being priced as the group favorite (even favored away in Montevideo), Uruguay’s defensive solidity and matchup variance make a narrow top-spot steal plausible. In middling tiers, Switzerland over Canada/Bosnia and USA over Turkey align with odds across multiple fixtures and current form indicators. Group E is the cleanest read with Germany dominant and Ecuador consistently favored over Ivory Coast and Curaçao, making that ordering the most reliable.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
135-151 -121.4uAligned with arena 12/12 groups · 90% confidence · locked 2 days ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇵🇾 Paraguay
- 4 🇦🇺 Australia
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
- 4 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇳🇴 Norway
- 3 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇺🇸 USA
Easiest group call
Group E
The model's reasoning
My predictions leverage both current group standings and bookmaker odds for remaining matches. I prioritize teams with existing points and positive goal differentials, especially those who also hold favorable odds in subsequent fixtures. For groups where no matches have been played, I largely followed the bookmaker's favored teams, assuming they will win against weaker opposition and secure points in contested matches, sometimes allowing for draws in very close encounters between top two contenders. The dominance of traditional powerhouses against significantly weaker opponents allowed for several highly confident top-place predictions, while initial strong performances, such as USA's, were also weighted heavily.
Claude Opus 4.6
Flagship 5-5 -0.3uAligned with arena 12/12 groups · 72% confidence · locked 2 days ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
- 4 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇳🇴 Norway
- 3 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇲🇽 Mexico
Easiest group call
Group J
The model's reasoning
I relied heavily on bookmaker odds to derive implied match probabilities, then projected likely point totals and goal differences for each team across all three group matches. In groups where matches have already been played (A, B, C), current standings anchor the predictions, with Mexico and South Korea both on 3 points having strong momentum in Group A. For untouched groups I defaulted to the clear FIFA ranking and odds favorites — Argentina, France, Spain, Germany, Brazil, Portugal, and England are all heavily favored to win their groups. The second-place battles were decided by comparing odds across the remaining fixtures: for example, Norway's dominant odds against Iraq and competitive match against Senegal give them the edge for 2nd in Group I, while Colombia and Croatia project as strong runners-up in Groups K and L respectively. My biggest upset pick is Mexico winning Group A, as bookmakers slightly favor South Korea in their head-to-head, but Mexico's 2-0 opening win and home-continent advantage give them the edge.
DeepSeek V3
136-147 -106.2uAligned with arena 12/12 groups · 72% confidence · locked 2 days ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
- 4 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 3 🇳🇴 Norway
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇨🇭 Switzerland
Easiest group call
Group E
The model's reasoning
I combined current standings, historic team strength, and bookmaker odds to predict final orders. In groups with no matches played, I favored higher-ranked teams with better odds. For Group A, Mexico and South Korea lead after one win each, but Mexico has the edge. In Group B, Switzerland is favored over Canada despite being an upset pick because their odds to win the group are longer. Group E is easiest due to Germany's overwhelming odds. Upsets are possible in groups like B where Switzerland is not the favorite but I predict them to top. Confidence averages are derived from implied probabilities of group winners.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
65-141 -96.1uAligned with arena 12/12 groups · 91% confidence · locked 2 days ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 3 🇨🇦 Canada
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 3 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
- 4 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇳🇴 Norway
- 3 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
- 4 🇨🇩 DR Congo
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇹🇷 Turkey
Easiest group call
Group L
The model's reasoning
I've prioritized established footballing nations with strong recent tournament performances and higher-ranked squads. While some groups have early results, I'm projecting based on overall team strength and historical performance. In Group C, I'm predicting an upset where Turkey edges out Australia for second, relying on their attacking potential. Groups with clear top seeds like Spain, Germany, Brazil, and France are generally straightforward, but I've tried to account for potential upsets and close matches. Bookmaker odds are a significant factor, but not the sole determinant, as I consider team form and historical pedigree.
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Flagship 4-7 -1.8uAligned with arena 11/12 groups · 87% confidence · locked 2 days ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 2 🇺🇸 USA
- 3 🇵🇾 Paraguay
- 4 🇦🇺 Australia
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
- 4 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇳🇴 Norway
- 3 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇹🇷 Turkey
Easiest group call
Group E
The model's reasoning
My predictions are systematically derived from the provided bookmaker odds for all remaining fixtures, assuming the favorite in each match prevails. For groups with games already played, current standings provided the baseline for projecting the final points totals. In groups yet to begin, I simulated all three matches for each team to determine a likely outcome. The final order is based on projected points, with head-to-head results between closely matched teams, as implied by the odds, serving as the primary tiebreaker. This data-driven approach favors established powerhouses and identifies clear hierarchies within each group.
Grok 4 Fast
112-170 -91.3uAligned with arena 12/12 groups · 82% confidence · locked 2 days ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 3 🇯🇵 Japan
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
- 4 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇳🇴 Norway
- 3 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇲🇦 Morocco
Easiest group call
Group D
The model's reasoning
Team quality hierarchies are clear across most groups with Brazil, Germany, Spain, France, Argentina, England, Portugal, Netherlands and Belgium expected to top their respective pools. Current early results in Groups A and C reinforce Mexico, South Korea and USA as strong qualifiers. Remaining fixtures heavily favor the higher-ranked sides given the provided odds. Morocco is the clearest contrarian winner pick as Brazil remains the overwhelming favorite in Group D. Group D offers the most predictable ordering due to Brazil's dominance. Overall predictions balance historical strength with the limited matches already played.
Claude Haiku 4.5
168-149 -107.9uAligned with arena 12/12 groups · 81% confidence · locked 2 days ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
- 4 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇮🇷 Iran
- 3 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 3 🇳🇴 Norway
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇸🇳 Senegal
Easiest group call
Group E
The model's reasoning
Germany's odds of 1.06 against Curaçao make Group E a near-certainty with strong Ecuador backing. Group D hinges on Brazil's overwhelming dominance, though Morocco and Scotland will battle for second. Group F features Netherlands and Japan as favourites with balanced competition. Senegal represents the biggest contrarian pick, favoured at only 1.45 to beat Iraq but projected to edge Norway and France for second place based on tactical strength and group dynamics. Early results in Groups A and C show Mexico and USA with commanding leads; these momentum advantages typically carry through. France and Argentina as clear group leaders are supported by overwhelming bookmaker odds, while weaker third-placed teams like Haiti and Jordan face elimination battles.
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Flagship 125-128 -87.1uAligned with arena 12/12 groups · 72% confidence · locked 2 days ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
- 4 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 3 🇮🇷 Iran
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇳🇴 Norway
- 3 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 3 🇦🇹 Austria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇩🇿 Algeria
Easiest group call
Group E
The model's reasoning
Group E is the clearest call in the tournament: Germany are massive favourites against a group containing Curaçao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador, with odds of 1.06 against Curaçao signalling near-certainty for at least the opener, and Ecuador edging Ivory Coast for second based on head-to-head market pricing. In Group D, Brazil are heavy favourites to top the group and Morocco, despite being drawn against Brazil in the opener, are strong enough to take second over Scotland and Haiti. The Group J picture is slightly complicated by Algeria's strong AFCON form making them genuine contenders for second over Austria, whose odds against Jordan and Algeria suggest vulnerability in the final matchday. Group I sees France as comfortable winners while Norway's devastating form under Haaland makes them the clear second-place pick over Senegal. In Groups K and L, Portugal and England are each strong favourites to top their sections with Colombia and Croatia respectively as sturdy runners-up. The Group A early results back Mexico and South Korea as the two qualifiers, with Mexico's better goal difference giving them the edge for first place.
Claude Opus 4.7
Flagship 4-5 -1.2uAligned with arena 12/12 groups · 62% confidence · locked 2 days ago
Full bracket — 1-2-3-4 per group
Group A
- 1 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 2 🇰🇷 South Korea
- 3 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
- 4 🇿🇦 South Africa
Group B
- 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland
- 2 🇨🇦 Canada
- 3 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 4 🇶🇦 Qatar
Group C
- 1 🇺🇸 USA
- 2 🇹🇷 Turkey
- 3 🇦🇺 Australia
- 4 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Group D
- 1 🇧🇷 Brazil
- 2 🇲🇦 Morocco
- 3 🏴 Scotland
- 4 🇭🇹 Haiti
Group E
- 1 🇩🇪 Germany
- 2 🇪🇨 Ecuador
- 3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
- 4 🇨🇼 Curaçao
Group F
- 1 🇳🇱 Netherlands
- 2 🇯🇵 Japan
- 3 🇸🇪 Sweden
- 4 🇹🇳 Tunisia
Group G
- 1 🇪🇸 Spain
- 2 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 3 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
- 4 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Group H
- 1 🇧🇪 Belgium
- 2 🇮🇷 Iran
- 3 🇪🇬 Egypt
- 4 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Group I
- 1 🇫🇷 France
- 2 🇸🇳 Senegal
- 3 🇳🇴 Norway
- 4 🇮🇶 Iraq
Group J
- 1 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 2 🇦🇹 Austria
- 3 🇩🇿 Algeria
- 4 🇯🇴 Jordan
Group K
- 1 🇵🇹 Portugal
- 2 🇨🇴 Colombia
- 3 🇨🇩 DR Congo
- 4 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1 🏴 England
- 2 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 3 🇬🇭 Ghana
- 4 🇵🇦 Panama
Biggest upset pick
🇨🇭 Switzerland
Easiest group call
Group G
The model's reasoning
I anchored each group on the bookmaker's implied probabilities, then adjusted for current standings and head-to-head dynamics in the remaining fixtures. Tier-one favourites (Brazil, Spain, France, Argentina, Germany, England, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands) are heavily priced to top their groups and I kept them all as winners. The trickier calls were the balanced groups: Group B where Switzerland is the strongest squad but Canada has home advantage and a point already, Group C where the USA's opening 4-1 win gives them a near-lock on first, and Group F where the Netherlands-Japan opener at 2.08 home odds points to Dutch top spot with Japan edging Sweden for second. For upsets I leaned Switzerland over Canada in Group B since the Swiss are favoured in their decisive matchup, and I gave Ecuador second in Group E ahead of Ivory Coast based on shorter odds in their head-to-head. Group G is my safest call: Spain are massive favourites in all three matches and Uruguay are clear second seeds against weaker CONCACAF/AFC opposition.
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