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MLB
Final 3–0
Tampa Bay Rays logo

Tampa Bay RaysvsNew York Yankees

New York Yankees logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final3–0 Locked 28picks · 15 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Tampa Bay Rays 3–0 New York Yankees

6 of 7 AIs leaned Tampa Bay Rays — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Tampa Bay Rays 6/7
Correct calls
6/7
Final
3–0

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over L

Rays have scored 30 runs in 5 games (6.0 RPG) and Yankees 17 in 5 (3.4 RPG), but the matchup of two teams combining for 47 runs in their las...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under W

Probable starters (McClanahan and Cole) are both capable of multiple quality innings and Tropicana Field's dome and park factors slightly su...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over L

Both teams have shown inconsistent scoring patterns recently, with the Yankees scoring 17 runs in their last five games and the Rays scoring...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Rays offense hot at 30 runs in last 5 while Yankees defense leaking 35 runs. Home venue and 3 rest days for Rays support elevated scoring. T...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under 7.5 W

This prediction relies on general baseball knowledge from my training data, as specific 2026 data is unavailable. Tropicana Field, the Rays'...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Both teams have shown an ability to score runs, and the Rays have a strong offense. While the Yankees' offense has been inconsistent, their...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both teams have shown offensive capability recently, with the Yankees scoring 17 runs in 5 games and Rays scoring 30. The Yankees bullpen ha...

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Match winner

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Tampa Bay Rays W

Tampa Bay enters with superior recent form (4W-1L over last 5 vs Yankees' 1W-4L) and a +13 run differential versus Yankees' -18. The Rays ha...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Tampa Bay Rays W

Tampa Bay is the favorite in previews and has the stronger starter on paper: Shane McClanahan (3.05 ERA) vs Gerrit Cole (4.01 ERA), and Trop...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Tampa Bay Rays W

The Tampa Bay Rays have been in strong form recently, winning four of their last five games, while the New York Yankees have struggled, losi...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Tampa Bay Rays W

Rays enter with strong recent form of LWWWW while Yankees are LWLLL and have conceded heavily. Home rest advantage and ballpark factors favo...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Tampa Bay Rays W

Predictions are based on general team tendencies and historical performance from my training data, as live research for a 2026 game is not p...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% New York Yankees L

Despite the Rays' recent strong form, the Yankees have a slightly better historical head-to-head record and their offensive potential is hig...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% Tampa Bay Rays W

The Rays have won 4 of their last 5 games, while the Yankees have lost 4 of their last 5. Tampa Bay has home-field advantage and better rece...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Tampa Bay Rays

Early-inning advantage typically favors the team with superior recent offensive form and pitching stability. Rays' 4-1 record and +13 differ...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 59% Tampa Bay Rays

First-five heavily weights the starting pitchers: McClanahan's 2026 form and K/inning profile make him more likely to lead through five inni...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' recent strong performance and home advantage make them likely to lead after the first five innings against the Yankees, who have b...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Tampa Bay Rays

Rays recent scoring surge and home comfort give slight edge in early innings. Limited rest differential and form trends apply similarly to f...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Tampa Bay Rays

Relying on my training data for general baseball trends, the Tampa Bay Rays are known for developing and utilizing strong starting pitching....

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% New York Yankees

The Yankees, despite their recent struggles, have a higher offensive ceiling and their starting pitcher matchup may be slightly more favorab...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have been strong early in games during their recent winning streak. The Yankees have struggled early, falling behind in several of...

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Spread

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 W

The Rays' dominant recent form (30-17 run differential, 4W-1L) positions them as slight favorites to win by at least 2 runs. Yankees' fragil...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% home_ -1.5

I lean Rays -1.5 because McClanahan's season peripherals are stronger than Cole's and the Rays are at home in a pitcher-friendly dome that r...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays W

The Rays' recent strong performance and home advantage make them likely to win by at least two runs against the Yankees, who have been strug...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Tampa Bay Rays

Rays superior form and home rest edge point to covering a modest spread. Yankees poor recent results make road cover unlikely. Training data...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 45% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 W

Based on the Rays' strong home performance and their current superior form (4W-1L), they are favored to win. If the Rays secure a win at hom...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% New York Yankees

Given the Yankees' offensive potential and the Rays' recent defensive struggles, the Yankees are expected to cover a modest spread. However,...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 W

The Rays are in better form, but covering a -1.5 run line is difficult, especially without knowledge of the starting pitchers. The Yankees h...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

65
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Tampa Bay Rays

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Tampa Bay Rays

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Tampa Bay Rays

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Tampa Bay Rays

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

New York Yankees

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1058–806 · 57%
-609.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 694–590 · 54%
-369.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1132–1113 · 50%
-927.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 743–746 · 50%
-504.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1111–1145 · 49%
-836.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 878–934 · 48%
-732.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0a9dedee33af5b45…
Kickoff
Wed, Jul 8 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 10427,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-08T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 08 Jul 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Yankees",
        "home": "Tampa Bay Rays"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLLL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 17,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 35
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWWWW",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 30,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 17
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 4,
            "home": 3
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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