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Tampa Bay Rays logo

Tampa Bay RaysvsNew York Yankees

New York Yankees logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay arrives in exceptional form—5 consecutive wins, +19 run differential, averaging 5.4 runs per game—while the Yankees are in sharp d...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay has the stronger recent form and dominant home record in 2026 (listed 31-12 at Tropicana Field) while New York comes in with a poo...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have won their last five games, scoring 27 runs and conceding only 8, indicating strong offensive and defensive performan...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% New York Yankees

Training data through 2023 shows Yankees hold historical edge over Rays despite both clubs' recent inconsistencies. Brief indicates Rays on...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 68% Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay enters this game in dominant form, winning their last five matches while the New York Yankees have struggled significantly with a...

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2 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees have a slight edge due to Gerrit Cole's strong pitching performance this season and the team's historical success against the Ra...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Tampa Bay Rays

Yankees have lost 4 of their last 5 and are inconsistent, while Rays have won 5 straight. Home advantage and recent form favor Tampa Bay, bu...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over 8.5

Tampa Bay's recent run-scoring pace (27 runs in 5 games = 5.4 per game) and the Yankees' defensive struggles (29 runs conceded in 5 games) s...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under

Tropicana Field (domed) suppresses wind-driven carry compared with open parks, and both clubs have competent pitching staffs; historical hea...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

The Yankees have been conceding an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five matches, while the Rays have been scoring an average of...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Training knowledge through 2023 points to moderate run environments at Rays home park. Both lineups project average offense while rest days...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Under 7.5 runs

The Tampa Bay Rays have shown excellent pitching and defense in their recent five-game winning streak, conceding only 8 runs. While the Yank...

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2 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Both offenses have been potent, and while the starting pitchers are solid, the offenses have shown the ability to score runs. The clear weat...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% over 7.5

Yankees have scored 17 runs in 5 games (3.4/game) but allowed 29 (5.8/game). Rays scored 27 (5.4/game) and allowed 8 (1.6/game). Expect mode...

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Spread

Consensus
New York Yankees 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Tampa Bay -1.5

Given Tampa Bay's 5-0 recent form and superior run differential (+19 vs -12), a -1.5 run line reflects fair value for the home Rays. The Yan...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% home_ -1.5

I expect Tampa Bay to win and have a slight edge to cover a -1.5 run spread given their superior home record and the Yankees' rotation/IL no...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' recent form and home-field advantage suggest they are likely to win by at least two runs. Their strong offense and the Yankees' de...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% New York Yankees

Yankees remain the stronger roster on historical data so they hold a slight edge on the spread. Rays winning streak is notable but training...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5

Given the Tampa Bay Rays' strong five-game winning streak and the New York Yankees' struggles, the Rays are expected to win convincingly. A...

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2 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% New York Yankees

While the Yankees are not heavily favored, Gerrit Cole's pitching ability against the Rays' offense, combined with the Yankees' slightly bet...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Tampa Bay Rays -1.5

Rays are in excellent form but Yankees are a strong team capable of keeping it close. The -1.5 line implies a comfortable win, which is not...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' early-game offensive consistency over their 5-game winning streak and the Yankees' weak run output (17 in 5 games) suggest Tampa B...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 50% Tampa Bay Rays

With starting-pitcher specifics not fully locked in public sources at the time of research, I lean toward the Rays leading after five becaus...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' strong recent form and home-field advantage suggest they are likely to lead after the first five innings. Their offense has been p...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% under

Early innings tend to be lower scoring when starters are fresh; training data shows Rays home games often stay under in first five. Equal re...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Tampa Bay Rays lead

The Tampa Bay Rays' current five-game winning streak indicates strong overall team performance, which often translates to early-game leads,...

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2 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% New York Yankees

The Yankees have Gerrit Cole on the mound, who has been very effective in the early innings this season. While the Rays have had a strong re...

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5 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Tampa Bay Rays

First five innings often favor the starting pitcher advantage. Rays have strong recent starting pitching, while Yankees have been inconsiste...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Tampa Bay Rays

68
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Tampa Bay Rays

62
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

New York Yankees

60
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Tampa Bay Rays

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Yankees

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 123–84 · 59%
+72.2u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 132–106 · 55%
-10.7u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 773–656 · 54%
-459.9u
o4-mini
o4-mini 76–68 · 53%
+77.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 551–500 · 52%
-280.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 172–162 · 52%
-39.9u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 110–104 · 51%
+114.9u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 165–162 · 50%
-51.8u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 889–909 · 49%
-723.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 637–654 · 49%
-412.5u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 111–115 · 49%
+99.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 833–875 · 49%
-566.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 696–747 · 48%
-545.8u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 437–472 · 48%
-317.0u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 821–949 · 46%
-786.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 134–168 · 44%
-64.6u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 8fb3cf13061c472b…
Kickoff
Tue, Jul 7 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 10166,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-07T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 07 Jul 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Yankees",
        "home": "Tampa Bay Rays"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WLLLL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 17,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 29
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWWW",
            "record": "5W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 27,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 8
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 3
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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