Live tracker
Value bets — live in-play & pre-match edges
The real value signal: a strong favourite that falls temporarily behind is often mispriced live. We model its true recovery probability from the situation and surface the gap to the market's price — updating live, no refresh. Top 3 free every day.
Live · updates every 15s
A strong favourite that falls temporarily behind in-play is often mispriced. We take its pre-match win probability and the live situation to model its true recovery probability, then compare it to the market's live price. When recovery beats the market, that gap is the edge.
No favourites are losing in-play right now. The moment a fancied side falls behind, it appears here with a live score — updating every 15s.
FAQ
Value bets, explained
What is a value bet?
A value bet is a wager where the true probability of the outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. Over time, only bets with positive expected value (positive EV) are profitable — the price, not the winner, is what matters.How does ModelFights find value bets?
We track live and pre-match moneyline prices across markets. When a strong favourite falls temporarily behind in-play, we model its true recovery probability from the live situation (score, time left, sets) and compare it to the market's live price. When our recovery probability beats the market's, that gap is the edge. Pre-match, we surface favourites whose price has drifted — an early sign the market is turning.Are value bets free?
The top 3 value bets are free for everyone, every day. A Pro subscription unlocks every live recovery edge and pre-match steam move as it appears, with the board updating every 15 seconds.Which sports are covered?
Football, tennis, basketball, ice hockey and more — any market where we have live pricing. Football and tennis have the deepest coverage.Is this betting or gambling advice?
No. ModelFights surfaces where the market may be mispriced for research and education. There are no wagers or payouts on ModelFights, and nothing here is a guarantee — always bet responsibly.