St. Louis City IIvsNorth Texas
St. Louis City II 1–1 North Texas
All 4 AIs backed St. Louis City II — reality had other ideas.
- AI lean
- St. Louis City II 4/4
- Correct calls
- 0/4
- Final
- 1–1
Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.
AI predictions
8 markets · 4 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
16 models × 8 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
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Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
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Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
over 2/4 models |
North Texas 1/4 models |
St. Louis City II / St. Louis City II 2/4 models |
2-1 4/4 models |
St. Louis City II 4/4 models |
yes 2/4 models |
St. Louis City II -0.75 1/4 models |
St. Louis City II 4/4 models |
|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
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GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
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|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
55%
under
W
|
48%
St. Louis City II
L
|
38%
St. Louis City II / St. Louis City II
L
|
22%
2-1
L
|
52%
St. Louis City II
L
|
58%
no
L
|
53%
St. Louis City II |
65%
St. Louis City II |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
under Home defense has allowed only three goals in five matches. Both teams average low scoring output and the recent H2H was an outlier. Outdoor...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
St. Louis City II Home side is defensively solid but the single H2H loss and away scoring threat keep the -1 handicap close. Form favors home but margin may b...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
38%
St. Louis City II / St. Louis City II Home side likely to control the match from the start given defensive stability and form. Half-time lead converting to full-time win is the m...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
22%
2-1 Low-scoring home win aligns with defensive form and recent trends. 2-1 covers the most likely margin given both teams' goal patterns. Traini...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
St. Louis City II St. Louis City II are unbeaten in five with only three goals conceded while North Texas have leaked eleven. The single prior H2H favors the...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
58%
no St. Louis have kept clean sheets in three of five recent games. North Texas concede heavily but St. Louis attack is not prolific. Low goal t...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
53%
St. Louis City II Home defensive record and unbeaten streak give a slight edge on the handicap line. Away side has shown scoring ability but inconsistent. Tra...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
65%
St. Louis City II Home side has not lost in five matches and concedes far fewer goals. Away side form is patchy with heavy concessions. Equal rest days but ho... |
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Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
L
|
40%
St. Louis City II -1
L
|
35%
St. Louis City II / St. Louis City II
L
|
16%
2-1
L
|
48%
St. Louis City II
L
|
52%
Yes
W
|
55%
St. Louis City II -0.75
L
|
67%
St. Louis City II |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Over 2.5 Goals North Texas has conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last five, suggesting a high-scoring game for St. Louis. St. Louis City I...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
St. Louis City II -1 St. Louis City II's superior form and North Texas's defensive vulnerabilities suggest the home side is likely to win by more than one goal....
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
St. Louis City II / St. Louis City II St. Louis City II is the clear favorite due to their strong home form and North Texas's defensive issues. Therefore, St. Louis leading at bo...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
16%
2-1 St. Louis City II's strong attacking form and North Texas's defensive struggles point towards a St. Louis victory with multiple goals. While...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
48%
St. Louis City II St. Louis City II enters this match with strong home form, remaining undefeated in their last five matches with a solid defensive record. No...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
Yes While St. Louis City II has a good defensive record, they have conceded in three of their last five matches. North Texas has managed to scor...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
St. Louis City II -0.75 Given St. Louis City II's strong recent form and home advantage against a defensively weak North Texas side, they are expected to win. A -0....
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
67%
St. Louis City II Based on St. Louis City II's stronger recent form and home advantage, they are heavily favored to avoid defeat. North Texas's defensive stru... |
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
55%
over
L
|
52%
North Texas
L
|
30%
Draw / St. Louis City II
L
|
15%
2-1
L
|
55%
St. Louis City II
L
|
55%
yes
W
|
55%
home_ 0.0 |
60%
St. Louis City II |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have shown a tendency for goals, especially North Texas who concede frequently on the road. St. Louis City II's home form is soli...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
North Texas North Texas won their last head-to-head match 3-0, indicating they can perform well against St. Louis City II. While St. Louis City II has s...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
30%
Draw / St. Louis City II St. Louis City II's strong home form suggests they are likely to win, but their tendency to draw at home (3 draws in last 5) and North Texas...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
15%
2-1 Considering St. Louis City II's strong home scoring record and North Texas' defensive frailties away from home, a 2-1 scoreline appears most...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
St. Louis City II St. Louis City II's home form is strong with an unbeaten record in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding only 3. North Texas'...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
yes North Texas' away form is characterized by a high number of goals conceded, suggesting they are likely to let in at least one goal. St. Loui...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
home_ 0.0 St. Louis City II's unbeaten home record and solid defensive performances at home make them a reliable option for a handicap of 0.0. While N...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
60%
St. Louis City II St. Louis City II's superior home form and defensive solidity give them an edge. While North Texas has shown capability in previous encounte... |
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DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
55%
over
L
|
60%
away_plus_ 1 |
20%
draw_home |
12%
2-1
L
|
45%
St. Louis City II
L
|
50%
yes
W
|
50%
home_ -0.25 |
55%
St. Louis City II |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over North Texas have conceded 11 goals in their last five, while St. Louis City II have scored 8 in that span. The previous head-to-head saw thr...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
away_plus_ 1 The home side are strong but not dominant enough to cover a -1 handicap consistently. North Texas have scored in most games and should keep...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
20%
draw_home Matches are often tight in the first half, and the home side's persistence may yield a second-half winner. Given both teams' scoring pattern...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
12%
2-1 The home side's strong defense and the away side's leaky backline suggest a 2-1 home win. The away team's ability to score makes the 2-1 sco...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
St. Louis City II St. Louis City II are unbeaten in their last five with solid defense (3 conceded) while North Texas have lost two of five and conceded 11. H...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
50%
yes North Texas have scored in four of their last five matches, and St. Louis City II have scored in all five during that period. Given both tea...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
50%
home_ -0.25 St. Louis City II's unbeaten run and home advantage give them a slight edge, but the narrowness of the handicap reflects uncertainty. A quar...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
55%
St. Louis City II Excluding the draw, St. Louis City II are backed by recent unbeaten form and home advantage. North Texas have been leaky defensively, conced... |
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Over / Under
Consensusover 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
55%
under
W
Home defense has allowed only three goals in five matches. Both teams average low scoring output and the recent H2H was an outlier. Outdoor...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
L
North Texas has conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last five, suggesting a high-scoring game for St. Louis. St. Louis City I...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
over
L
Both teams have shown a tendency for goals, especially North Texas who concede frequently on the road. St. Louis City II's home form is soli...
DeepSeek V3
55%
over
L
North Texas have conceded 11 goals in their last five, while St. Louis City II have scored 8 in that span. The previous head-to-head saw thr...
Spread
ConsensusNorth Texas 1/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
48%
St. Louis City II
L
Home side is defensively solid but the single H2H loss and away scoring threat keep the -1 handicap close. Form favors home but margin may b...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
40%
St. Louis City II -1
L
St. Louis City II's superior form and North Texas's defensive vulnerabilities suggest the home side is likely to win by more than one goal....
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
52%
North Texas
L
North Texas won their last head-to-head match 3-0, indicating they can perform well against St. Louis City II. While St. Louis City II has s...
DeepSeek V3
60%
away_plus_ 1
The home side are strong but not dominant enough to cover a -1 handicap consistently. North Texas have scored in most games and should keep...
Half-time / Full-time
ConsensusSt. Louis City II / St. Louis City II 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
38%
St. Louis City II / St. Louis City II
L
Home side likely to control the match from the start given defensive stability and form. Half-time lead converting to full-time win is the m...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
35%
St. Louis City II / St. Louis City II
L
St. Louis City II is the clear favorite due to their strong home form and North Texas's defensive issues. Therefore, St. Louis leading at bo...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
30%
Draw / St. Louis City II
L
St. Louis City II's strong home form suggests they are likely to win, but their tendency to draw at home (3 draws in last 5) and North Texas...
DeepSeek V3
20%
draw_home
Matches are often tight in the first half, and the home side's persistence may yield a second-half winner. Given both teams' scoring pattern...
Correct score
Consensus2-1 4/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
22%
2-1
L
Low-scoring home win aligns with defensive form and recent trends. 2-1 covers the most likely margin given both teams' goal patterns. Traini...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
16%
2-1
L
St. Louis City II's strong attacking form and North Texas's defensive struggles point towards a St. Louis victory with multiple goals. While...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
15%
2-1
L
Considering St. Louis City II's strong home scoring record and North Texas' defensive frailties away from home, a 2-1 scoreline appears most...
DeepSeek V3
12%
2-1
L
The home side's strong defense and the away side's leaky backline suggest a 2-1 home win. The away team's ability to score makes the 2-1 sco...
Match winner
ConsensusSt. Louis City II 4/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
52%
St. Louis City II
L
St. Louis City II are unbeaten in five with only three goals conceded while North Texas have leaked eleven. The single prior H2H favors the...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
48%
St. Louis City II
L
St. Louis City II enters this match with strong home form, remaining undefeated in their last five matches with a solid defensive record. No...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
St. Louis City II
L
St. Louis City II's home form is strong with an unbeaten record in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding only 3. North Texas'...
DeepSeek V3
45%
St. Louis City II
L
St. Louis City II are unbeaten in their last five with solid defense (3 conceded) while North Texas have lost two of five and conceded 11. H...
Both teams to score
Consensusyes 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
58%
no
L
St. Louis have kept clean sheets in three of five recent games. North Texas concede heavily but St. Louis attack is not prolific. Low goal t...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
Yes
W
While St. Louis City II has a good defensive record, they have conceded in three of their last five matches. North Texas has managed to scor...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
yes
W
North Texas' away form is characterized by a high number of goals conceded, suggesting they are likely to let in at least one goal. St. Loui...
DeepSeek V3
50%
yes
W
North Texas have scored in four of their last five matches, and St. Louis City II have scored in all five during that period. Given both tea...
Asian handicap
ConsensusSt. Louis City II -0.75 1/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
St. Louis City II
Home defensive record and unbeaten streak give a slight edge on the handicap line. Away side has shown scoring ability but inconsistent. Tra...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
St. Louis City II -0.75
L
Given St. Louis City II's strong recent form and home advantage against a defensively weak North Texas side, they are expected to win. A -0....
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
home_ 0.0
St. Louis City II's unbeaten home record and solid defensive performances at home make them a reliable option for a handicap of 0.0. While N...
DeepSeek V3
50%
home_ -0.25
St. Louis City II's unbeaten run and home advantage give them a slight edge, but the narrowness of the handicap reflects uncertainty. A quar...
Draw no bet
ConsensusSt. Louis City II 4/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
65%
St. Louis City II
Home side has not lost in five matches and concedes far fewer goals. Away side form is patchy with heavy concessions. Equal rest days but ho...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
67%
St. Louis City II
Based on St. Louis City II's stronger recent form and home advantage, they are heavily favored to avoid defeat. North Texas's defensive stru...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
St. Louis City II
St. Louis City II's superior home form and defensive solidity give them an edge. While North Texas has shown capability in previous encounte...
DeepSeek V3
55%
St. Louis City II
Excluding the draw, St. Louis City II are backed by recent unbeaten form and home advantage. North Texas have been leaky defensively, conced...
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
St. Louis City II
Grok 4 Fast
St. Louis City II
Gemini 2.5 Flash
St. Louis City II
DeepSeek V3
St. Louis City II
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Beat the AIs · Predict the score
Picks closed
Match has already kicked off. Picks are permanent — no late entries.
Team news
ProInjuries and confirmed lineups — the same team news the AIs factored into their reads.
Team news is a Pro feature
see exactly who's out and the XIs the AIs reasoned on, before kickoff.
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
cf3c9340528be6c6…
- Kickoff
- Sat, Aug 29 · 00:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Draw no bet · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time · Correct score
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System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 8. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 8, in this order): h2h | draw_no_bet | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 32276,
"sport": "football",
"venue": "CITYPARK",
"league": "MLS Next Pro",
"starts_at": "2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "North Texas",
"home": "St. Louis City II"
},
"version": "v2",
"sport_focus": [
"Weight CONFIRMED team news heavily: a missing first-choice striker, creator, or centre-back swings a match more than season-long form.",
"Compare attacking vs defensive quality directly — clean-sheet rate and goals-conceded trend often predict unders/BTTS better than the win line.",
"Set pieces decide tight games: note corner/free-kick threat and aerial mismatches.",
"Account for fixture congestion + likely rotation (midweek European or cup games before this one) and the home/away form split.",
"For outdoor venues, factor heavy rain or strong wind — both suppress goals and favour the under.",
"Tactical style matters: a high-press side vs a possession side, or two defensive setups, shapes the goals expectation."
],
"team_context": {
"note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
"away_form": {
"last": "DDLWL",
"record": "1W-2D-2L",
"scored": 5,
"matches": 5,
"conceded": 11
},
"home_form": {
"last": "DWDWD",
"record": "2W-3D-0L",
"scored": 8,
"matches": 5,
"conceded": 3
},
"rest_days": {
"away": 5,
"home": 5
},
"head_to_head": {
"recent": [
"2026-07-05: North Texas 3–0 St. Louis City II"
],
"matches": 1
}
},
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"draw_no_bet",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft",
"correct_score"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
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