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MLB
Final 0–3
Pittsburgh Pirates logo

Pittsburgh PiratesvsAtlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final0–3 Locked 28picks · 17 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Pittsburgh Pirates 0–3 Atlanta Braves

All 7 AIs backed Atlanta Braves — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Atlanta Braves 7/7
Correct calls
7/7
Final
0–3

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Atlanta Braves -1.5 W

Atlanta's recent form, offensive consistency, and run differential advantage suggest they are slight favourites to win by 2 or more runs. Pi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 L

Runline +1.5 on the home Pirates offers value given the extremely small moneyline gap; Pittsburgh's offense has been hot, and home park/run...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Atlanta Braves W

The Braves are favored to win, but the Pirates have shown resilience at home. A close game is anticipated, making the Braves' -1.5 spread a...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Atlanta Braves

Braves superior lineup depth supports a spread cover in most road outings per historical patterns through 2025. Pirates bullpen fatigue from...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 57% Atlanta Braves -1.5 W

Considering the Atlanta Braves' historical superiority and their stronger recent offensive output, they are favored to win by more than a si...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Atlanta Braves W

Given the strong pitching advantage for the Braves with Max Fried, they are well-positioned to win by more than one run. The Pirates' offens...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 42% Atlanta Braves -1.5 W

The Braves are the better team, but covering -1.5 requires a win by two or more runs, which is less certain. The Pirates have home field and...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Over 8.5 L

Combined scoring in Atlanta's last 5 matches totals 55 runs (32 scored, 23 conceded), averaging 11 runs per game. Pittsburgh's last 5 saw 53...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Over 8.5 L

Both lineups have shown recent run production (Pirates: 41 runs last 5; Braves: 38 last 5) and PNC Park's forecasted light wind out to cente...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over L

Both teams have shown tendencies to score high in recent games, and the starting pitchers have been inconsistent, leading to potential for a...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Training data through 2025-09 shows both clubs average above league run totals in summer games. Ballpark and July weather typically favor sc...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5 L

Without specific starting pitcher or weather details, we rely on historical team tendencies and the provided recent form. Both teams have sh...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

While both teams have decent offenses, the Braves' lineup combined with Max Fried's strong pitching suggests a moderate scoring game. Howeve...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Over 8.5

Both teams have shown scoring ability recently, with the Braves averaging 6.4 runs per game and the Pirates 4.8 in their last five. The venu...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Atlanta Braves

Early-game scoring is typically dominated by starter performance and the opposing team's early offensive aggression. Atlanta's stronger rece...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 70% Atlanta Braves

First-five innings (mini-game) should favor Grant Holmes: his season workload and peripherals (more IP, lower ERA) make him likelier to supp...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Atlanta Braves

The Braves' starting pitcher has been more effective in the early innings, and their offense tends to start strong. The Pirates' starter has...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Atlanta Braves

Starting pitcher advantage leans Atlanta in the early innings based on career splits through 2025. First-five scoring in this matchup histor...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Atlanta Braves

Drawing from historical team data, the Atlanta Braves typically field stronger starting pitching compared to the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Atlanta Braves

Max Fried is expected to pitch exceptionally well through the first five innings, limiting the Pirates' scoring opportunities. The Braves' o...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Atlanta Braves

The first five innings often favor the better starter and bullpen edge early. Without specific starter data, the Braves' overall stronger ro...

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Match winner

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Atlanta Braves W

Atlanta enters with superior recent form (3W-2L vs Pittsburgh's 2W-3L) and a +9 run differential in the last 5 matches, indicating better of...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Atlanta Braves W

The pitching matchup gives Atlanta a small edge: Grant Holmes has a larger sample (82 IP) and a 3.83 ERA this season while Jared Jones (29 I...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Atlanta Braves W

The Atlanta Braves have a stronger overall record and have been more consistent in recent games compared to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Brav...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Atlanta Braves W

Atlanta has the stronger overall roster and recent form edge over Pittsburgh based on training data through 2025-09. Away team rest is sligh...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Atlanta Braves W

Based on historical team strength from training data and the provided recent form (3W-2L vs 2W-3L), the Atlanta Braves are projected to win...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Atlanta Braves W

The Atlanta Braves are the superior team, bolstered by their ace pitcher Max Fried's recent dominant form. The Pittsburgh Pirates, while at...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Atlanta Braves W

The Braves have better recent form (3-2) compared to the Pirates (2-3), and they have 3 days rest vs 4 for the Pirates, giving them a slight...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Atlanta Braves

65
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Atlanta Braves

65
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Atlanta Braves

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Atlanta Braves

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Atlanta Braves

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Atlanta Braves

57
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Atlanta Braves

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1058–806 · 57%
-609.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 694–590 · 54%
-369.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1132–1113 · 50%
-927.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 743–746 · 50%
-504.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1111–1145 · 49%
-836.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 878–934 · 48%
-732.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 15ec84685d4e7566…
Kickoff
Wed, Jul 8 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 10426,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-08T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 08 Jul 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Atlanta Braves",
        "home": "Pittsburgh Pirates"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLWW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 38,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 35
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWLW",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 41,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 20
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1
        },
        "head_to_head": {
            "recent": [
                "2026-07-07: Pittsburgh Pirates 12–4 Atlanta Braves"
            ],
            "matches": 1
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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