NapolivsArsenal
Your call
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AI predictions
8 markets · 4 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
16 models × 8 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
Draw 2/4 models |
Arsenal 2/4 models |
over 2/4 models |
yes 3/4 models |
Arsenal 3/4 models |
Arsenal -0.25 2/4 models |
Draw / Arsenal 2/4 models |
1-1 2/4 models |
|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market. |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market. |
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|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
37%
Arsenal |
55%
Arsenal |
52%
under |
52%
no |
48%
Arsenal |
53%
Arsenal -0.25 |
28%
Draw / Arsenal |
18%
1-2 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
37%
Arsenal Arsenal possess superior squad depth and attacking quality based on 2024-2025 form. Napoli at home remain dangerous but lack consistent Euro...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
55%
Arsenal Arsenal's higher ceiling and better rest advantage favor them to avoid defeat. Napoli's recent home European results are mixed and their att...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
under Both sides are defensively organized and likely to prioritize control in a UCL opener. Napoli home games average under 2.6 goals in recent s...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
no Clean-sheet rates for both teams in European away fixtures are strong. Arsenal's back line has improved markedly and Napoli struggle to brea...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Arsenal Arsenal are the stronger side and should cover a -1 handicap on expected quality gap. Napoli's home advantage narrows the margin but rarely...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
53%
Arsenal -0.25 Arsenal's quality edge makes the quarter-ball handicap attractive. Napoli have shown vulnerability to counter-attacks in European games. Tra...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
Draw / Arsenal Cautious opening half is expected given the tactical battle. Arsenal often accelerate after halftime and secure the points. Patterns from si...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
18%
1-2 Low-scoring away win aligns with both teams' defensive profiles and Arsenal's counter threat. 1-2 has been a recurring scoreline in Arsenal'... |
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Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
45%
Napoli |
65%
Napoli |
55%
over |
60%
yes |
35%
Draw |
45%
Napoli -0.5 |
28%
Napoli / Napoli |
12%
2-1 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Napoli Napoli enjoys a strong home advantage at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona and significantly more rest days (4 vs 2) than Arsenal. Their recent...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
65%
Napoli Aligning with the H2H pick, Napoli's home advantage, greater rest, and stronger attacking form make them the preferred side without the draw...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Napoli's recent form shows a high goal output (12 goals in 5 matches), and both teams have conceded 8 goals in their last five, indicating d...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
yes Both Napoli and Arsenal have demonstrated attacking capabilities, with Napoli scoring freely at home and Arsenal typically finding ways to n...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
35%
Draw While I predict a Napoli win, Arsenal's quality suggests it will be a competitive match. A narrow one-goal victory for Napoli (which results...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
45%
Napoli -0.5 This market is essentially a prediction for an outright home win. Based on Napoli's home advantage, superior rest, and stronger recent attac...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
Napoli / Napoli Given Napoli's home advantage, greater rest, and recent goal-scoring prowess, they are likely to start strong and maintain their lead throug...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
12%
2-1 A 2-1 scoreline aligns with the prediction of a Napoli win, with both teams scoring, and the game being competitive rather than a rout. Napo... |
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
37%
Draw |
39%
Draw |
58%
over |
60%
yes |
41%
Arsenal |
40%
away_ 0.0 |
28%
draw_draw |
15%
1-1 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
37%
Draw This is a difficult match to call with certainty. Both teams have had mixed recent form, with identical win-draw-loss records in their last...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
39%
Draw Considering the balanced form of both teams, the draw is the most probable outcome. Therefore, in a Draw No Bet market, covering the draw wi...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
over Despite the mixed recent form, Napoli's attack has shown scoring potential (12 goals in 5 games) while conceding 8. Arsenal's defense has al...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
yes Napoli has scored in their last 5 games (12 total) and conceded in 4 of them (8 total). Arsenal has conceded in 4 of their last 5 games (8 t...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
41%
Arsenal Arsenal has been defensively fragile, conceding 8 goals in their last 5 games. Napoli, while also having defensive issues, has a potent atta...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
40%
away_ 0.0 With the draw being the most likely outcome based on form, and no strong indicators favouring one team heavily, the Asian Handicap at 0.0 me...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
draw_draw Given the assessment that a draw is the most likely full-time result, a 'Draw-Draw' scenario is the most probable outcome for the half-time/...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
15%
1-1 Considering the equal form and tendency for both teams to score and concede, a 1-1 draw is the most balanced scoreline. It reflects both tea... |
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DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
30%
Draw |
52%
Arsenal |
55%
under |
52%
yes |
60%
Arsenal |
50%
Arsenal -0.25 |
25%
Draw / Arsenal |
15%
1-1 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
30%
Draw Both teams are evenly matched with poor recent form. Napoli score freely but concede, Arsenal are solid defensively but struggling to score....
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
52%
Arsenal With the draw removed, Arsenal's slight edge in head-to-head encounters and better defensive structure make them the safer pick. However, Na...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
under Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, but this is a high-stakes Champions League match where caution often prevails. Arsenal's recent l...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
yes Both teams have been scoring and conceding regularly. Napoli average 2.4 goals per game scored, Arsenal 1.2, but both defenses are shaky. Tr...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
Arsenal Arsenal are more consistent away from home in European ties and have a stronger defensive record in the competition. They are likely to win...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
50%
Arsenal -0.25 Given the tight nature, a quarter-goal handicap to Arsenal offers a balanced bet. Arsenal's team quality and depth give them a narrow edge....
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
25%
Draw / Arsenal Both teams often have cautious starts with the first goal coming late. Arsenal's second-half strength may see them win after a goalless firs...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
15%
1-1 Given the even matchup and both teams' ability to score, a 1-1 draw is most likely. History suggests close encounters. Training knowledge th... |
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Match winner
ConsensusDraw 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
37%
Arsenal
Arsenal possess superior squad depth and attacking quality based on 2024-2025 form. Napoli at home remain dangerous but lack consistent Euro...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
45%
Napoli
Napoli enjoys a strong home advantage at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona and significantly more rest days (4 vs 2) than Arsenal. Their recent...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
37%
Draw
This is a difficult match to call with certainty. Both teams have had mixed recent form, with identical win-draw-loss records in their last...
DeepSeek V3
30%
Draw
Both teams are evenly matched with poor recent form. Napoli score freely but concede, Arsenal are solid defensively but struggling to score....
Draw no bet
ConsensusArsenal 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
55%
Arsenal
Arsenal's higher ceiling and better rest advantage favor them to avoid defeat. Napoli's recent home European results are mixed and their att...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
65%
Napoli
Aligning with the H2H pick, Napoli's home advantage, greater rest, and stronger attacking form make them the preferred side without the draw...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
39%
Draw
Considering the balanced form of both teams, the draw is the most probable outcome. Therefore, in a Draw No Bet market, covering the draw wi...
DeepSeek V3
52%
Arsenal
With the draw removed, Arsenal's slight edge in head-to-head encounters and better defensive structure make them the safer pick. However, Na...
Over / Under
Consensusover 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
52%
under
Both sides are defensively organized and likely to prioritize control in a UCL opener. Napoli home games average under 2.6 goals in recent s...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
over
Napoli's recent form shows a high goal output (12 goals in 5 matches), and both teams have conceded 8 goals in their last five, indicating d...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
58%
over
Despite the mixed recent form, Napoli's attack has shown scoring potential (12 goals in 5 games) while conceding 8. Arsenal's defense has al...
DeepSeek V3
55%
under
Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, but this is a high-stakes Champions League match where caution often prevails. Arsenal's recent l...
Both teams to score
Consensusyes 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
52%
no
Clean-sheet rates for both teams in European away fixtures are strong. Arsenal's back line has improved markedly and Napoli struggle to brea...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
60%
yes
Both Napoli and Arsenal have demonstrated attacking capabilities, with Napoli scoring freely at home and Arsenal typically finding ways to n...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
yes
Napoli has scored in their last 5 games (12 total) and conceded in 4 of them (8 total). Arsenal has conceded in 4 of their last 5 games (8 t...
DeepSeek V3
52%
yes
Both teams have been scoring and conceding regularly. Napoli average 2.4 goals per game scored, Arsenal 1.2, but both defenses are shaky. Tr...
Spread
ConsensusArsenal 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
48%
Arsenal
Arsenal are the stronger side and should cover a -1 handicap on expected quality gap. Napoli's home advantage narrows the margin but rarely...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
35%
Draw
While I predict a Napoli win, Arsenal's quality suggests it will be a competitive match. A narrow one-goal victory for Napoli (which results...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
41%
Arsenal
Arsenal has been defensively fragile, conceding 8 goals in their last 5 games. Napoli, while also having defensive issues, has a potent atta...
DeepSeek V3
60%
Arsenal
Arsenal are more consistent away from home in European ties and have a stronger defensive record in the competition. They are likely to win...
Asian handicap
ConsensusArsenal -0.25 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Arsenal -0.25
Arsenal's quality edge makes the quarter-ball handicap attractive. Napoli have shown vulnerability to counter-attacks in European games. Tra...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
45%
Napoli -0.5
This market is essentially a prediction for an outright home win. Based on Napoli's home advantage, superior rest, and stronger recent attac...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
40%
away_ 0.0
With the draw being the most likely outcome based on form, and no strong indicators favouring one team heavily, the Asian Handicap at 0.0 me...
DeepSeek V3
50%
Arsenal -0.25
Given the tight nature, a quarter-goal handicap to Arsenal offers a balanced bet. Arsenal's team quality and depth give them a narrow edge....
Half-time / Full-time
ConsensusDraw / Arsenal 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
28%
Draw / Arsenal
Cautious opening half is expected given the tactical battle. Arsenal often accelerate after halftime and secure the points. Patterns from si...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
28%
Napoli / Napoli
Given Napoli's home advantage, greater rest, and recent goal-scoring prowess, they are likely to start strong and maintain their lead throug...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
28%
draw_draw
Given the assessment that a draw is the most likely full-time result, a 'Draw-Draw' scenario is the most probable outcome for the half-time/...
DeepSeek V3
25%
Draw / Arsenal
Both teams often have cautious starts with the first goal coming late. Arsenal's second-half strength may see them win after a goalless firs...
Correct score
Consensus1-1 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
18%
1-2
Low-scoring away win aligns with both teams' defensive profiles and Arsenal's counter threat. 1-2 has been a recurring scoreline in Arsenal'...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
12%
2-1
A 2-1 scoreline aligns with the prediction of a Napoli win, with both teams scoring, and the game being competitive rather than a rout. Napo...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
15%
1-1
Considering the equal form and tendency for both teams to score and concede, a 1-1 draw is the most balanced scoreline. It reflects both tea...
DeepSeek V3
15%
1-1
Given the even matchup and both teams' ability to score, a 1-1 draw is most likely. History suggests close encounters. Training knowledge th...
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Napoli
Grok 4 Fast
Arsenal
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Draw
DeepSeek V3
Draw
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Refresh the read
Team newsRe-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.
Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.
Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.
Beat the AIs · Predict the score
Call the exact final score
Free account. Pick the exact final score, lock it before kickoff, beat the AI consensus across the WC and win a lifetime free plan.
Team news
ProInjuries and confirmed lineups — the same team news the AIs factored into their reads.
Team news is a Pro feature
see exactly who's out and the XIs the AIs reasoned on, before kickoff.
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
2028d80bcfee0a77…
- Kickoff
- Wed, Sep 9 · 19:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Draw no bet · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time · Correct score
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 8. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 8, in this order): h2h | draw_no_bet | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 39734,
"sport": "football",
"venue": "Stadio Diego Armando Maradona",
"league": "UEFA Champions League",
"starts_at": "2026-09-09T19:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Wed, 09 Sep 2026 19:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Arsenal",
"home": "Napoli"
},
"version": "v2",
"sport_focus": [
"Weight CONFIRMED team news heavily: a missing first-choice striker, creator, or centre-back swings a match more than season-long form.",
"Compare attacking vs defensive quality directly — clean-sheet rate and goals-conceded trend often predict unders/BTTS better than the win line.",
"Set pieces decide tight games: note corner/free-kick threat and aerial mismatches.",
"Account for fixture congestion + likely rotation (midweek European or cup games before this one) and the home/away form split.",
"For outdoor venues, factor heavy rain or strong wind — both suppress goals and favour the under.",
"Tactical style matters: a high-press side vs a possession side, or two defensive setups, shapes the goals expectation."
],
"team_context": {
"note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
"away_form": {
"last": "DWWLL",
"record": "2W-1D-2L",
"scored": 6,
"matches": 5,
"conceded": 8
},
"home_form": {
"last": "LLWWD",
"record": "2W-1D-2L",
"scored": 12,
"matches": 5,
"conceded": 8
},
"rest_days": {
"away": 2,
"home": 4
}
},
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"draw_no_bet",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft",
"correct_score"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
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