Crown LegacyvsChicago Fire II
Crown Legacy 4–0 Chicago Fire II
3 of 4 AIs leaned Crown Legacy — and reality agreed.
- AI lean
- Crown Legacy 3/4
- Correct calls
- 3/4
- Final
- 4–0
Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.
AI predictions
8 markets · 4 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
16 models × 8 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
|
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
yes 3/4 models |
Crown Legacy 3/4 models |
2-1 3/4 models |
Crown Legacy 3/4 models |
Crown Legacy 2/4 models |
Crown Legacy / Crown Legacy 3/4 models |
Crown Legacy -0.5 2/4 models |
over 3/4 models |
|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
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Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
55%
yes
L
|
62%
Crown Legacy
W
|
14%
2-1
L
|
48%
Crown Legacy
W
|
51%
Crown Legacy
W
|
29%
Crown Legacy / Crown Legacy |
52%
Crown Legacy -0.25
W
|
53%
over
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
yes Both sides concede regularly and score in most matches. Prior H2H saw both teams score. Training data through 2025-09 used for baseline.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
62%
Crown Legacy Home side has better record and venue advantage in MLS Next Pro. Away side concedes more on the road. Training data through 2025-09 used for...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
14%
2-1 Most likely scores cluster around 2-1 given scoring trends and H2H. Training data through 2025-09 used for baseline.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
48%
Crown Legacy Crown Legacy hold a slight edge from recent home form and the only prior H2H win. Chicago's away record shows more losses and higher goals c...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Crown Legacy Home team slightly more likely to win by 2+ given form and H2H result. Training data through 2025-09 used for baseline.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
29%
Crown Legacy / Crown Legacy Home side favored to lead at half and full time based on venue and recent results. Training data through 2025-09 used for baseline.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
52%
Crown Legacy -0.25 Small home advantage reflected in form and rest. Training data through 2025-09 used for baseline.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over Both teams average over 3 goals per game in recent form. H2H ended 5-2. Outdoor venue and rest days suggest open game. Training data through... |
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Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
70%
Yes
L
|
67%
Crown Legacy
W
|
18%
3-2
L
|
50%
Crown Legacy
W
|
40%
Draw |
28%
Crown Legacy / Crown Legacy |
50%
Crown Legacy -0.5
W
|
65%
Over 2.5 Goals
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
70%
Yes Given both teams' recent goal-scoring form (Crown Legacy 1.8 GF/game, Chicago Fire II 1.6 GF/game) and the single head-to-head match ending...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
67%
Crown Legacy Removing the draw outcome strengthens Crown Legacy's position. They are favored to win based on home advantage and their head-to-head record...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
18%
3-2 The only head-to-head match between these teams ended 3-2 in favor of Crown Legacy, making this a highly plausible scoreline. This also alig...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
50%
Crown Legacy This prediction is based on the provided data and training knowledge, as the match is in the future. Crown Legacy has the home advantage, a...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
Draw Crown Legacy is favored to win, and Chicago Fire II has also shown they can score. The previous H2H was 3-2 (Crown Legacy win by 1 goal), wh...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
Crown Legacy / Crown Legacy Crown Legacy is the favored side with home advantage and a 3-2 H2H win. Given the expectation of an open, high-scoring game, it's plausible...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
50%
Crown Legacy -0.5 Crown Legacy holds the home advantage and secured a 3-2 victory in their sole previous encounter against Chicago Fire II. This, combined wit...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
65%
Over 2.5 Goals Both teams have shown a propensity for high-scoring games in their recent form, with Crown Legacy averaging 1.8 GF and Chicago Fire II avera... |
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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
60%
yes
L
|
50%
Chicago Fire II
L
|
12%
2-1
L
|
45%
Chicago Fire II
L
|
40%
Chicago Fire II
L
|
18%
Draw / Chicago Fire II
L
|
45%
away_ 0.0 |
55%
over
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
yes Both teams have conceded a significant number of goals in their recent games, and their head-to-head encounter also featured both teams scor...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
50%
Chicago Fire II Given the slight edge in form for Chicago Fire II and the potential for a close game, they are favored in the draw no bet market. Removing t...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
12%
2-1 Considering the offensive capabilities and defensive frailties of both teams, as well as the previous 3-2 scoreline, a narrow victory for Ch...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Chicago Fire II Chicago Fire II have a slightly better recent form in terms of wins, despite conceding more goals. The head-to-head record is only one game,...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
Chicago Fire II Chicago Fire II have a slight edge in recent form and win percentage. While Crown Legacy won the previous encounter, it was by a single goal...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
18%
Draw / Chicago Fire II Chicago Fire II have a slightly better chance of winning the match, but Crown Legacy has shown the ability to come back or hold their own. A...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
45%
away_ 0.0 Given the close head-to-head and similar recent form, the Asian Handicap of 0.0 (which essentially acts as a draw no bet) favors Chicago Fir...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have shown a tendency to concede goals in their recent matches. Crown Legacy conceded 8 goals in their last 5, and Chicago Fire I... |
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DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
62%
yes
L
|
60%
Crown Legacy
W
|
12%
2-1
L
|
45%
Crown Legacy
W
|
30%
Crown Legacy
W
|
25%
Crown Legacy / Crown Legacy |
45%
Crown Legacy -0.5
W
|
55%
over
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
62%
yes Both teams have scored in many matches; Chicago Fire II have scored in 4 of last 5, Crown Legacy in 5 of last 5. Defensive vulnerabilities s...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
60%
Crown Legacy Home advantage and head-to-head win tilt this toward Crown Legacy when the draw is removed. Chicago Fire II away form is inconsistent. Expec...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
12%
2-1 Given both teams' scoring and conceding trends, a narrow home win like 2-1 is plausible. The H2H was 3-2, but that's less likely. The draw a...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Crown Legacy Crown Legacy have home advantage and won the only recent meeting 3-2 at home. Chicago Fire II have poor away form but are competitive, makin...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
30%
Crown Legacy Winning by more than one goal is difficult given the closeness of the teams. Chicago Fire II are capable of keeping it close. Home win by 2+...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
25%
Crown Legacy / Crown Legacy Crown Legacy at home may start well but matches between these teams are often close. A halftime lead for the home side is plausible, but not...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
45%
Crown Legacy -0.5 Home win is slightly favored but not with high confidence. The only H2H was a home win. However, away side has decent attack, so the handica...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have high scoring and conceding rates (average over 3 goals per game combined). Recent H2H had 5 goals. Defenses are leaky, so ov... |
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Both teams to score
Consensusyes 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
55%
yes
L
Both sides concede regularly and score in most matches. Prior H2H saw both teams score. Training data through 2025-09 used for baseline.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
70%
Yes
L
Given both teams' recent goal-scoring form (Crown Legacy 1.8 GF/game, Chicago Fire II 1.6 GF/game) and the single head-to-head match ending...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
yes
L
Both teams have conceded a significant number of goals in their recent games, and their head-to-head encounter also featured both teams scor...
DeepSeek V3
62%
yes
L
Both teams have scored in many matches; Chicago Fire II have scored in 4 of last 5, Crown Legacy in 5 of last 5. Defensive vulnerabilities s...
Draw no bet
ConsensusCrown Legacy 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
62%
Crown Legacy
W
Home side has better record and venue advantage in MLS Next Pro. Away side concedes more on the road. Training data through 2025-09 used for...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
67%
Crown Legacy
W
Removing the draw outcome strengthens Crown Legacy's position. They are favored to win based on home advantage and their head-to-head record...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
50%
Chicago Fire II
L
Given the slight edge in form for Chicago Fire II and the potential for a close game, they are favored in the draw no bet market. Removing t...
DeepSeek V3
60%
Crown Legacy
W
Home advantage and head-to-head win tilt this toward Crown Legacy when the draw is removed. Chicago Fire II away form is inconsistent. Expec...
Correct score
Consensus2-1 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
14%
2-1
L
Most likely scores cluster around 2-1 given scoring trends and H2H. Training data through 2025-09 used for baseline.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
18%
3-2
L
The only head-to-head match between these teams ended 3-2 in favor of Crown Legacy, making this a highly plausible scoreline. This also alig...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
12%
2-1
L
Considering the offensive capabilities and defensive frailties of both teams, as well as the previous 3-2 scoreline, a narrow victory for Ch...
DeepSeek V3
12%
2-1
L
Given both teams' scoring and conceding trends, a narrow home win like 2-1 is plausible. The H2H was 3-2, but that's less likely. The draw a...
Match winner
ConsensusCrown Legacy 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
48%
Crown Legacy
W
Crown Legacy hold a slight edge from recent home form and the only prior H2H win. Chicago's away record shows more losses and higher goals c...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
50%
Crown Legacy
W
This prediction is based on the provided data and training knowledge, as the match is in the future. Crown Legacy has the home advantage, a...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
45%
Chicago Fire II
L
Chicago Fire II have a slightly better recent form in terms of wins, despite conceding more goals. The head-to-head record is only one game,...
DeepSeek V3
45%
Crown Legacy
W
Crown Legacy have home advantage and won the only recent meeting 3-2 at home. Chicago Fire II have poor away form but are competitive, makin...
Spread
ConsensusCrown Legacy 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Crown Legacy
W
Home team slightly more likely to win by 2+ given form and H2H result. Training data through 2025-09 used for baseline.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
40%
Draw
Crown Legacy is favored to win, and Chicago Fire II has also shown they can score. The previous H2H was 3-2 (Crown Legacy win by 1 goal), wh...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
40%
Chicago Fire II
L
Chicago Fire II have a slight edge in recent form and win percentage. While Crown Legacy won the previous encounter, it was by a single goal...
DeepSeek V3
30%
Crown Legacy
W
Winning by more than one goal is difficult given the closeness of the teams. Chicago Fire II are capable of keeping it close. Home win by 2+...
Half-time / Full-time
ConsensusCrown Legacy / Crown Legacy 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
29%
Crown Legacy / Crown Legacy
Home side favored to lead at half and full time based on venue and recent results. Training data through 2025-09 used for baseline.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
28%
Crown Legacy / Crown Legacy
Crown Legacy is the favored side with home advantage and a 3-2 H2H win. Given the expectation of an open, high-scoring game, it's plausible...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
18%
Draw / Chicago Fire II
L
Chicago Fire II have a slightly better chance of winning the match, but Crown Legacy has shown the ability to come back or hold their own. A...
DeepSeek V3
25%
Crown Legacy / Crown Legacy
Crown Legacy at home may start well but matches between these teams are often close. A halftime lead for the home side is plausible, but not...
Asian handicap
ConsensusCrown Legacy -0.5 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Crown Legacy -0.25
W
Small home advantage reflected in form and rest. Training data through 2025-09 used for baseline.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
50%
Crown Legacy -0.5
W
Crown Legacy holds the home advantage and secured a 3-2 victory in their sole previous encounter against Chicago Fire II. This, combined wit...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
45%
away_ 0.0
Given the close head-to-head and similar recent form, the Asian Handicap of 0.0 (which essentially acts as a draw no bet) favors Chicago Fir...
DeepSeek V3
45%
Crown Legacy -0.5
W
Home win is slightly favored but not with high confidence. The only H2H was a home win. However, away side has decent attack, so the handica...
Over / Under
Consensusover 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
over
W
Both teams average over 3 goals per game in recent form. H2H ended 5-2. Outdoor venue and rest days suggest open game. Training data through...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
65%
Over 2.5 Goals
W
Both teams have shown a propensity for high-scoring games in their recent form, with Crown Legacy averaging 1.8 GF and Chicago Fire II avera...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
over
W
Both teams have shown a tendency to concede goals in their recent matches. Crown Legacy conceded 8 goals in their last 5, and Chicago Fire I...
DeepSeek V3
55%
over
W
Both teams have high scoring and conceding rates (average over 3 goals per game combined). Recent H2H had 5 goals. Defenses are leaky, so ov...
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Crown Legacy
Grok 4 Fast
Crown Legacy
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Chicago Fire II
DeepSeek V3
Crown Legacy
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Beat the AIs · Predict the score
Picks closed
Match has already kicked off. Picks are permanent — no late entries.
Team news
ProInjuries and confirmed lineups — the same team news the AIs factored into their reads.
Team news is a Pro feature
see exactly who's out and the XIs the AIs reasoned on, before kickoff.
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
55e360d5ed27f504…
- Kickoff
- Fri, Sep 4 · 21:30 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Draw no bet · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time · Correct score
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
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System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 8. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 8, in this order): h2h | draw_no_bet | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 36129,
"sport": "football",
"venue": "Sportsplex at Matthews",
"league": "MLS Next Pro",
"starts_at": "2026-09-04T21:30:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Fri, 04 Sep 2026 21:30:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Chicago Fire II",
"home": "Crown Legacy"
},
"version": "v2",
"sport_focus": [
"Weight CONFIRMED team news heavily: a missing first-choice striker, creator, or centre-back swings a match more than season-long form.",
"Compare attacking vs defensive quality directly — clean-sheet rate and goals-conceded trend often predict unders/BTTS better than the win line.",
"Set pieces decide tight games: note corner/free-kick threat and aerial mismatches.",
"Account for fixture congestion + likely rotation (midweek European or cup games before this one) and the home/away form split.",
"For outdoor venues, factor heavy rain or strong wind — both suppress goals and favour the under.",
"Tactical style matters: a high-press side vs a possession side, or two defensive setups, shapes the goals expectation."
],
"team_context": {
"note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
"away_form": {
"last": "LWLWL",
"record": "2W-0D-3L",
"scored": 8,
"matches": 5,
"conceded": 11
},
"home_form": {
"last": "LWLDW",
"record": "2W-1D-2L",
"scored": 9,
"matches": 5,
"conceded": 8
},
"rest_days": {
"away": 5,
"home": 4
},
"head_to_head": {
"recent": [
"2026-07-18: Crown Legacy 3–2 Chicago Fire II"
],
"matches": 1
}
},
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"draw_no_bet",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft",
"correct_score"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
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