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Basketball Women's National Basketball Association · CareFirst Arena
Awaiting result · 993h 36m ago
WM

Washington MysticsvsDallas Wings

DW
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Kickoff Locked 28picks

AI predictions

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16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Washington Mystics 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Washington Mystics

Washington is playing at home in CareFirst Arena with a recent win, while Dallas comes in on a mixed 1-1 run. Both teams have adequate rest...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Dallas Wings

Dallas is the stronger roster-on-paper (Paige Bueckers + Arike Ogunbowale + interior pieces) with a higher offensive profile, while Washingt...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Washington Mystics

The Washington Mystics have a strong home-court advantage and have been performing well recently. The Dallas Wings have struggled in their r...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Washington Mystics

Washington Mystics hold home-court edge at CareFirst Arena. Dallas Wings show inconsistent recent form with a 1-1 record while Mystics are 1...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Washington Mystics

Based on historical WNBA trends and general team strengths from training data, Washington typically performs well at home. Dallas, while off...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Dallas Wings

Based on training data, the Dallas Wings generally hold a slight edge over the Washington Mystics. The Wings' recent form, though limited in...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Washington Mystics

Based on training data through September 2025, the Mystics have a solid home court advantage and are coming off a win, while the Wings have...

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Bookmaker line: Dallas Wings 59%

First half winner

Consensus
Washington Mystics 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Washington Mystics

First-half outcomes in the WNBA often correlate with season-long form and home-court edge. Washington's recent win and home venue suggest th...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% Washington Mystics

Washington tends to play with a slightly slower pace and can establish defensive identity early; at home the Mystics' starters (Citron, Aust...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Washington Mystics

The Mystics are expected to start strong at home, potentially leading at halftime against the Wings.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Washington Mystics

First-half trends often mirror full-game home edge in WNBA. Both squads enter well-rested which may produce a measured opening half. Mystics...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Dallas Wings

The first half often reflects the initial momentum and established form. Given the Dallas Wings' slightly better overall historical performa...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Washington Mystics

The Mystics typically start strong at home, and the Wings have shown slow starts in recent games. Without live injury updates, the home team...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 170

Washington's recent output (86 points in one game) and Dallas's last two games (168 and 154 combined points) suggest moderate offensive outp...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% under

Using team pace (Wings ~78.7, Mystics ~76.9) and the teams' offensive ratings (Dallas ~112, Washington ~102) produces an expected combined s...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent games, suggesting a higher-scoring matchup. The over/under line is set at 2.5, which...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Pace tendencies in WNBA games typically produce totals near 160-165 points. Both teams' recent scoring outputs suggest a moderate-to-high po...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over

Dallas Wings traditionally favor a higher-paced offensive game, which often pushes total scores upwards. Although Washington can play strong...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

While the provided form data shows low-scoring recent games for both teams (86-85 for home, 168-154 over 2 games for away), historical WNBA...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% over

WNBA games typically have high scoring with an average total around 160-170 points. With both teams having adequate rest and no major injuri...

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Bookmaker line: 165.5 · Over 53%

Spread

Consensus
Washington Mystics 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Washington Mystics -5

A 5-point home spread is modest and aligns with the modest home-court edge in the WNBA (~3–5 points). Washington's recent win and home venue...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Dallas Wings -2.5

A small spread (Wings -2.5) favors Dallas given their superior offense and roster depth; Washington's home-court and defensive strengths shr...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Washington Mystics

The Mystics' home-court advantage and recent form make them likely to cover the -1 point spread against the Wings.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Washington Mystics

Home-court advantage for Mystics is meaningful though smaller than star availability factors. Wings' mixed form makes them vulnerable on the...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Washington Mystics -3.5

Washington Mystics typically leverage their home-court advantage effectively, and their historical defensive solidity often allows them to c...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Dallas Wings

The spread of -1 suggests a very close game. Given the slight historical advantage and potentially more consistent offense of the Dallas Win...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Washington Mystics

The Mystics are favored by a small margin, which aligns with their home advantage and better recent form. The Wings have shown inconsistency...

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First half h2h

Consensus
Washington Mystics 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% Washington Mystics

The Washington Mystics are expected to start strong at home, aiming to establish an early lead and leverage their crowd support. Historicall...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Washington Mystics

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Washington Mystics

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Dallas Wings

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Washington Mystics

57
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Washington Mystics

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Dallas Wings

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Washington Mystics

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1223–997 · 55%
-800.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 737–629 · 54%
-408.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 1612–1716 · 48%
-1,474.5u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1071–1150 · 48%
-987.0u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1968–2125 · 48%
-1,939.7u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1955–2187 · 47%
-1,878.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 1639–1914 · 46%
-1,712.8u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Bookmaker odds

1 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted

Book Washington Mystics Draw Dallas Wings
Draftkings 2.20 — 1.70
Book Line Over Under
Draftkings 165.5 1.87 1.95
Book Washington Mystics Dallas Wings
Draftkings — —

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: aa40e51301d9f3a9…
Kickoff
Wed, Aug 5 · 23:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 20719,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": "CareFirst Arena",
        "league": "Women's National Basketball Association",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-05T23:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 05 Aug 2026 23:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Dallas Wings",
        "home": "Washington Mystics"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LW",
            "record": "1W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 168,
            "matches": 2,
            "conceded": 154
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "W",
            "record": "1W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 86,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 85
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 52,
            "home": 53
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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