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Basketball World Cup
Upcoming · in 86h 16m
Canada logo

CanadavsJamaica

Jamaica logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 24picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Canada 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 72% Canada

Canada has established itself as a FIBA powerhouse in recent years with consistent tournament performance and NBA-caliber roster depth. Jama...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Canada

Canada has a strong record in the FIBA World Cup Qualifiers, with a perfect 4-0 record atop Group B. They have previously defeated Jamaica 9...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 87% Canada

Canada possesses multiple NBA-level players while Jamaica relies on far less experienced roster talent. Historical results in FIBA competiti...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 95% Canada

Based on historical strength and general program quality in international basketball, Canada possesses significantly more talent and experie...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Canada

Canada is the stronger team in this World Cup matchup. Their home advantage and overall squad quality should allow them to secure a victory...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Canada

Canada has a stronger basketball program and deeper talent pool, especially in FIBA competitions. Jamaica lacks comparable depth and recent...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over

World Cup tournament play in modern basketball is moderately paced with efficient offensive execution. Canada typically scores 75–85 points...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% over

Both teams have shown high-scoring games in recent qualifiers, with Canada averaging 99.5 points per game and Jamaica 86.86 points per game....

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% over

Canada's up-tempo style and three-point volume typically push game totals higher against weaker defenses. Jamaica's defensive rating is poor...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Under 165.5

While Canada is expected to score heavily, their defense against a weaker opponent like Jamaica could be dominant, limiting Jamaica's contri...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

While Jamaica is generally a defensive team, Canada has a potent offense. The expectation is for a relatively open game with both teams capa...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% under

Canada's pace is moderate, and Jamaica struggles to score efficiently. FIBA games tend to be lower-scoring than NBA. Expect a defensive batt...

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Spread

Consensus
Canada 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 65% Canada -8.5

Canada's roster depth and FIBA ranking suggest a double-digit advantage is realistic. Jamaica will compete but lacks the talent and tourname...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% Canada

Given Canada's strong performance in the qualifiers and their previous victory over Jamaica, they are likely to cover a -1 point spread. ([m...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 71% Canada -18.5

Talent gap and home-court advantage point to a 20-plus point margin for Canada. Jamaica has shown limited ability to stay competitive agains...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Canada -25.5

Canada's deep roster and professional talent are likely to overwhelm Jamaica from the start, allowing them to build and maintain a significa...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Canada

Canada is favored to win by at least one goal. Their offensive pressure and home-field advantage should allow them to overcome Jamaica's def...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Canada -7.5

Canada's talent advantage suggests a comfortable double-digit win. Even if Jamaica keeps it close, the spread is absorbable given home court...

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First half winner

Consensus
Canada 5/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Canada

First-half play is determined by early offensive rhythm and defensive intensity. Canada's superior roster and tournament experience typicall...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Canada

Canada's strong start in previous games suggests they will lead at halftime. ([matchstat.com](https://matchstat.com/predictions-tips/basketb...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 81% Canada

Canada's superior starting five and early defensive pressure usually establish double-digit leads by halftime. Jamaica struggles with turnov...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 62% Canada

Canada is likely to come out strong and assert dominance early. Their attacking setup and the motivation of playing at home should see them...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Canada

Canada typically starts strong with disciplined defense and transition offense. Jamaica may struggle early adjusting to Canada's pace. Expec...

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First half h2h

Consensus
Canada 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 90% Canada

Canada is expected to assert its dominance early in the game, establishing a significant lead in the first half. The talent gap between the...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Canada

95
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Canada

87
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Canada

85
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Canada

75
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Canada

72
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Canada

65

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 119–75 · 61%
+80.4u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 127–98 · 56%
-4.1u
o4-mini
o4-mini 71–60 · 54%
+80.9u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 699–623 · 53%
-427.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 168–154 · 52%
-33.3u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 514–474 · 52%
-254.7u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 161–153 · 51%
-44.3u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 104–99 · 51%
+116.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 107–106 · 50%
+106.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 834–853 · 49%
-669.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 605–636 · 49%
-394.5u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 433–463 · 48%
-309.2u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 783–846 · 48%
-537.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 651–714 · 48%
-514.6u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 764–913 · 46%
-750.9u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 130–161 · 45%
-67.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: d42b23eadc7c0a54…
Kickoff
Mon, Jul 6 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9984,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-06T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 06 Jul 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Jamaica",
        "home": "Canada"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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