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Basketball World Cup
Upcoming · in 87h 02m
Dominican Republic logo

Dominican RepublicvsNicaragua

Nicaragua logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 24picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 160.5

World Cup basketball games involving smaller nations tend toward moderate pace and defensive intensity. Neither team is known for elite offe...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Over 2.5

The Dominican Republic's offense is potent, and they have a history of high-scoring games. Given their offensive capabilities and Nicaragua'...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Pace tends to be high in mismatch games where the favorite pushes transition opportunities. Nicaragua lacks the defensive structure to slow...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Over 158.5

While international basketball can sometimes be lower scoring, the Dominican Republic's offensive firepower against a weaker Nicaraguan defe...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

While specific game pace information is unavailable, international basketball games between teams of differing strengths often feature highe...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both teams have average scoring, but Dominican Republic's offense and Nicaragua's pace could lead to a competitive game with points. Lack of...

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Spread

Consensus
Dominican Republic 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Dominican Republic -8.5

Dominican Republic's talent advantage and home court support should produce a mid-single-digit to low-double-digit margin. Nicaragua will st...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% Dominican Republic -1

The Dominican Republic is expected to win by at least one point, given their superior roster and previous performances against Nicaragua. Th...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 78% Dominican Republic

Talent gap and home-court advantage point to a comfortable margin for Dominican Republic. Nicaragua rarely keeps games within single digits...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 85% Dominican Republic -16.5

The talent and experience gap between the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua in basketball is substantial. Assuming a spread of -16.5, the Dom...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 70% Dominican Republic

Given the projected advantage for the Dominican Republic in head-to-head matchups, they are also expected to cover any reasonable point spre...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Dominican Republic -12

Dominican Republic's talent advantage likely translates to a double-digit win. Historical gaps between these teams suggest a comfortable mar...

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Match winner

Consensus
Dominican Republic 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic is the stronger basketball program in the Caribbean, with superior talent depth and international experience. Nicaragua h...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 90% Dominican Republic win

The Dominican Republic has a strong basketball program with a history of success in international competitions. Nicaragua has struggled in p...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 82% Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic possesses multiple NBA-level players and far greater depth than Nicaragua. Historical FIBA results show DR dominating Cen...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 90% Dominican Republic

Based on general basketball knowledge and historical performance in international competitions, the Dominican Republic typically fields a mu...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 75% Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a significantly stronger basketball nation than Nicaragua, with a history of better performances in international...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic has historically been stronger in basketball, with more talent and depth. Training data up to 2025 shows they are a consi...

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First half winner

Consensus
Dominican Republic 3/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 64% Dominican Republic -4.5

First half spreads typically compress by 40–50% relative to full-game spreads when talent gaps are large; Dominican Republic should establis...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Dominican Republic win

The Dominican Republic is likely to establish an early lead, given their offensive strength and Nicaragua's defensive struggles. A first-hal...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 75% Dominican Republic

Superior starting units and early-game execution favor the home side building a lead by halftime. Weaker opponents often fall behind quickly...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic's expected superiority should manifest early in the game, allowing them to build a lead in the first half. They are likel...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic starts strong and controls tempo, often leading early. Nicaragua may struggle to keep up from the start. Home court and d...

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First half 9.5

Consensus
Dominican Republic -9.5 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 80% Dominican Republic -9.5

A strong favorite like the Dominican Republic against a significant underdog is expected to establish dominance early in the game. Assuming...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Dominican Republic win

90
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Dominican Republic

90
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Dominican Republic

82
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Dominican Republic

75
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Dominican Republic

75
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Dominican Republic

68

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 119–75 · 61%
+80.4u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 127–98 · 56%
-4.1u
o4-mini
o4-mini 71–60 · 54%
+80.9u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 699–623 · 53%
-427.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 168–154 · 52%
-33.3u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 514–474 · 52%
-254.7u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 161–153 · 51%
-44.3u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 104–99 · 51%
+116.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 107–106 · 50%
+106.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 834–853 · 49%
-669.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 605–636 · 49%
-394.5u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 433–463 · 48%
-309.2u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 783–846 · 48%
-537.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 651–714 · 48%
-514.6u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 764–913 · 46%
-750.9u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 130–161 · 45%
-67.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: ee46016f52d56d30…
Kickoff
Tue, Jul 7 · 00:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 10123,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 07 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Nicaragua",
        "home": "Dominican Republic"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 9 sources

    9 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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