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Basketball World Cup
Final 95–76
Ukraine logo

UkrainevsGeorgia

Georgia logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final95–76 Locked 28picks · 17 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Ukraine 95–76 Georgia

6 of 7 AIs leaned Ukraine — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Ukraine 6/7
Correct calls
6/7
Final
95–76

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Ukraine 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Ukraine -4 W

Ukraine's form and rest advantage support a modest home edge. A -4 spread is reasonable for a stronger team in tournament play. However, Geo...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% Ukraine -3.5 W

With Ukraine's recent high-scoring wins and the head-to-head 92-79 victory earlier in the window, Ukraine have demonstrated they can both ou...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Ukraine W

Given Ukraine's home advantage and their previous victory over Georgia, they are likely to cover a -1 point spread. The match's location in...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Ukraine

Ukraine's home status and rest advantage point to a modest spread cover. Georgia's travel and lack of recent data tilt the matchup toward th...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% away_ -3.5

As the match is scheduled for 2026, real-time data is unavailable. This prediction relies on general knowledge from training data. Aligning...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Georgia L

The spread is set at -3.5, suggesting a close game. Given the limited information on team strengths and the potential for variability in bas...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Georgia +5.5 L

Georgia is competitive and can keep games close. Ukraine's home edge may not cover a large spread. Training data through 2025-09.

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Match winner

Consensus
Ukraine 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Ukraine W

Ukraine enters with recent winning form (1-0) and has a 3-day rest advantage. Georgia is a smaller basketball nation with less established i...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Ukraine W

Ukraine enter this July 2, 2026 qualifier with momentum (96-92 friendly win vs Lithuania on June 28) and beat Georgia earlier in the window...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Ukraine W

Ukraine has a strong home advantage, winning all their home games against Georgia. Additionally, their recent form includes a convincing 92-...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Ukraine W

Ukraine enters with a recent win and three rest days while Georgia lacks comparable recent form indicators. Home-court edge in international...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Georgia L

As the match is scheduled for 2026, real-time data for form, lineups, and injuries is unavailable. This prediction relies solely on general...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Ukraine W

Ukraine is the home team and has a slight edge based on the provided context. While recent form is limited, the home advantage and a slightl...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Ukraine W

Ukraine has home-court advantage and strong recent form with a win over Georgia in head-to-head. Georgia lacks depth and consistency on the...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 175.5 W

Ukraine's recent output (96 points in one match) and defensive concession (92) suggest a mid-tempo, mid-scoring offensive profile. Georgia l...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% over W

Recent windows show volatile scoring — Ukraine's warm-up vs Lithuania produced 188 combined points (96-92 on June 28), while prior Ukraine-G...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% over W

The last encounter between Ukraine and Georgia ended with a total of 171 points (92-79), indicating a high-scoring game. Both teams have sho...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Pace tends to be moderate in these qualifiers but Ukraine's recent 96-point output hints at an open style. Limited rest differential and ben...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% under_158.5 L

As the match is scheduled for 2026, real-time data is unavailable. This prediction relies on general knowledge from training data. Internati...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over W

Without specific pace or scoring data for these teams, predicting totals is challenging. However, given the context that pace is a major fac...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% over

Both teams have shown high-scoring tendencies in recent matches, with Ukraine averaging 96 points. The pace should be up-tempo. Training dat...

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First half winner

Consensus
Ukraine 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Ukraine

First-half matchups in tournament basketball often reflect early execution and shooting variance. Ukraine's recent form and rest suggest bet...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Ukraine

Ukraine's strong home performance and recent form suggest they will lead at halftime. The match's location in Riga, Latvia, closer to Ukrain...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Ukraine

Early-game home energy and rest should give Ukraine a narrow first-half lead probability. Both teams typically start conservatively in quali...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Georgia

As the match is scheduled for 2026, real-time data is unavailable. This prediction relies on general knowledge from training data. Building...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Georgia

Predicting the first half is highly speculative without more data. However, if the away team is expected to perform reasonably well, they mi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Ukraine

Ukraine tends to start strong at home, and Georgia may need time to adjust. Home court advantage often leads to early leads. Training data t...

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First half leader

Consensus
Ukraine 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% Ukraine

Ukraine showed early offensive aggressiveness in recent friendlies and may look to establish a lead early (they outscored Lithuania in the f...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Ukraine

65
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Ukraine

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Ukraine

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Ukraine

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Ukraine

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Ukraine

57
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Georgia

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1083–1112 · 49%
-803.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 9fbaa51294130c5f…
Kickoff
Thu, Jul 2 · 15:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9272,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-02T15:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 02 Jul 2026 15:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Georgia",
        "home": "Ukraine"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "home_form": {
            "last": "W",
            "record": "1W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 96,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 92
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "home": 3
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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