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Basketball World Cup
Final 95–72
Turkey logo

TurkeyvsSwitzerland

Switzerland logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final95–72 Locked 28picks · 16 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Turkey 95–72 Switzerland

6 of 7 AIs leaned Turkey — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Turkey 6/7
Correct calls
6/7
Final
95–72

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Turkey 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Turkey W

Turkey enters with recent momentum (1W) and a +7 point differential in their last match, while Switzerland has lost consecutive games with a...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 78% Turkey W

Türkiye enters as the clear favorite — coaching continuity and NBA-level pieces (Alperen Şengün and other pros) significantly upgrade their...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Turkey W

Turkey has a strong track record in recent matches, including a decisive 85-60 victory over Switzerland in November 2025. Their current form...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 78% Turkey W

Turkey national team holds a clear talent and depth advantage over Switzerland in FIBA competition. Recent form shows Turkey with a win and...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 80% Turkey W

Based on the provided form, Turkey has a winning record (1W-0L) and a positive point differential, while Switzerland has lost both of their...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Switzerland L

Switzerland's recent form is poor with two consecutive losses, while Turkey has a single win in their last match. However, based on training...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Turkey W

Turkey has a stronger basketball tradition and home-court advantage in a World Cup setting. Switzerland's form shows two losses with poor de...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over 160.5

Switzerland's recent matches yielded 143 + 178 = 321 points across 2 games (160.5 PPG average), signaling an uptempo or high-scoring environ...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under L

Head-to-head history in this qualifying cycle and both teams' profiles point to a controlled tempo: Turkey's defenses and interior control (...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% over W

Both teams have shown variable scoring patterns, but Turkey's offensive strength suggests a higher-scoring game. ([livescores.biz](https://l...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Pace tendencies for both nations point to moderate possessions per game. Turkey's offensive efficiency should push the total higher in a hom...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 158.5 W

Switzerland's two games averaged 160.5 total points, and Turkey's single game averaged 157 total points. Averaging these, we get 158.75 poin...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

While specific total points data is not available, Switzerland's recent games have seen a high average of 160.5 points conceded, and Turkey'...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% over 2.5 W

In international basketball, totals of 150+ are common. Turkey scored 82 and conceded 75 in their game. Switzerland allowed 89 points per ga...

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First half winner

Consensus
Turkey 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 81

If the full game total trends Over 160, the first half is likely to see a similar high-pace environment. Switzerland's recent scoring output...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% Turkey

Turkey should establish the early tone with its superior personnel and paint control; teams with NBA-caliber bigs typically build early half...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Turkey

Turkey's strong start in recent games suggests they will lead at halftime. ([livescores.biz](https://livescores.biz/basketball/h2h/switzerla...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 70% Turkey

Turkey typically starts strong with established stars controlling early tempo. Switzerland's form indicates slow starts. Home advantage comp...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 75% Turkey

Given Turkey's stronger overall form and winning record compared to Switzerland's losses, Turkey is expected to establish an early lead. The...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Switzerland

Switzerland's perceived stronger team strength and potential to start games more assertively, even in a close contest, gives them a slight e...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Turkey

Turkey's home crowd and quick start likely give them a first-half lead. Switzerland's recent first-half performances in losses have been poo...

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Spread

Consensus
Turkey 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Turkey -5.5 W

Turkey's +7 differential in their last game and winning form support a small home spread. Switzerland's consecutive losses (by 16 and 35 poi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Turkey -9.5 W

Turkey's roster quality gap and the earlier 85-60 win over Switzerland suggest Turkey can win by a clear margin; a -9.5 line is reasonable f...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% Turkey W

Turkey's consistent victories and home-court advantage make them likely to cover a -1 point spread. ([livescores.biz](https://livescores.biz...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 72% Turkey

Home-court edge plus talent gap gives Turkey a likely double-digit margin. Switzerland has struggled on the road recently. Equal rest days r...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Turkey -8.5 W

Turkey secured a 7-point win in their only match, while Switzerland suffered significant losses with an average differential of -17.5 points...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Switzerland

Given the slight edge in historical performance for Switzerland and their generally stronger team profile, they are favored to cover a modes...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Turkey -5 W

Turkey's home advantage and better form suggest a comfortable win. Switzerland's defense has been weak. A spread of -5 is reasonable given T...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Turkey

85
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Turkey

80
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Turkey

78
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Turkey

78
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Turkey

70
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Turkey

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Switzerland

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1107–1136 · 49%
-827.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: b1935956bb9d97a4…
Kickoff
Mon, Jul 6 · 16:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9972,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-06T16:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 06 Jul 2026 16:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Switzerland",
        "home": "Turkey"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LL",
            "record": "0W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 143,
            "matches": 2,
            "conceded": 178
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "W",
            "record": "1W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 82,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 75
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 3
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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