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Basketball Women's National Basketball Association · Scotiabank Arena
Upcoming · in 88h 03m
TT

Toronto TempovsMinnesota Lynx

ML
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First half winner

Consensus
Minnesota Lynx 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Minnesota Lynx -2.5

In first halves, the Lynx's experience and transition game should assert itself early, giving them a slight edge. Toronto, as an expansion t...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota projects to start fast with veteran scorers and Collier energized in early minutes; Toronto's rotation uncertainty and the Tempo's...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Toronto Tempo

The Lynx have a strong record and have won the last two matchups, including a decisive 100-72 victory on May 21, 2026. ([thescore.com](https...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Minnesota Lynx

Lynx typically start games with veteran lineups that control tempo early. Toronto Tempo may need several games to settle into a consistent f...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Minnesota Lynx

The Minnesota Lynx are anticipated to start strong, quickly establishing control against the Toronto Tempo, an expansion team likely experie...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

Given the high scoring potential observed in both teams' games, it is likely that the first half will also see a significant number of point...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Toronto Tempo

Home teams often start strong due to crowd energy. Toronto will likely come out motivated as the new franchise. The Lynx may need time to ad...

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Spread

Consensus
Minnesota Lynx 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Minnesota Lynx -5.5

The Lynx should win, but Toronto's home-court advantage at Scotiabank Arena and expansion-team hunger may keep them competitive within a mid...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Minnesota Lynx

Given Minnesota's stronger net rating, deeper rotation, and the return of Collier, a near-5-point spread favors the Lynx to cover; Toronto's...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% Toronto Tempo

The Lynx are favored by 14.5 points, with a 93.4% chance to win. ([dunkelindex.com](https://www.dunkelindex.com/news/lynx-vs-tempo-wnba-bett...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Minnesota Lynx

Lynx are the more complete roster and should cover a modest spread even on the road. Toronto Tempo will need time to gel and will likely be...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% away_cover

The Minnesota Lynx are expected to leverage their experience and established roster depth to comfortably defeat an expansion team. A margin...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Minnesota Lynx

The spread is very tight, reflecting the close expected outcome. The Lynx's slightly more consistent offensive output in their single game g...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Toronto Tempo -2.5

Toronto's home court and slightly better recent form give them a small edge. The Lynx are a strong franchise historically, but traveling to...

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Match winner

Consensus
Minnesota Lynx 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota Lynx is a historically strong WNBA franchise with a track record of excellence, while Toronto Tempo is a new expansion team (debut...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 66% Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota is the healthier, more efficient team with superior offensive rating and recent form; Napheesa Collier returned on July 22 with a...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Toronto Tempo

The Minnesota Lynx have a strong 22-6 record, while the Toronto Tempo are 10-16. The Lynx have won the last two matchups, including a decisi...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota Lynx enter 2026 as an established contender while Toronto Tempo is an expansion franchise with unknown roster cohesion. Lynx have...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Minnesota Lynx

Based on general WNBA dynamics and my training data, established franchises like the Minnesota Lynx typically have a significant advantage o...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Minnesota Lynx

The Minnesota Lynx have a slightly better early season record and are favored based on their historical performance against teams with simil...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 67% Toronto Tempo

Based on my training data through 2025, the Toronto Tempo (expansion team in 2026) are likely still building chemistry, but the Lynx have a...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 200.5

Toronto's recent scoring average (~96 PPG from 2 matches) suggests a slower-paced or defensive-minded team, which would depress the total ev...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% over

Using team pace and offensive ratings (Minnesota ORtg ~112.3, Toronto ORtg ~105.4; pace ~76–77), a straight possessions-based estimate yield...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% under

The Lynx have an average of 91.5 points per game, and the Tempo average 88.5 points per game. The combined average is 180 points, suggesting...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Expansion teams often play at higher pace while learning defensive schemes. Lynx offense generates efficient possessions that should push th...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% under

WNBA expansion teams often struggle to establish high offensive efficiency and rhythm early in their existence. This, combined with the gene...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both teams have demonstrated a tendency to score and concede a significant number of points in their limited games this season. The average...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 56% over

Both teams have shown ability to score in their early games, with averages around 95 points each. The Lynx conceded 100 in their loss, sugge...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Toronto Tempo

85
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Toronto Tempo

67
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Minnesota Lynx

66
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Minnesota Lynx

65
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Minnesota Lynx

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Minnesota Lynx

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Minnesota Lynx

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1054–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–583 · 54%
-362.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1127–1107 · 50%
-921.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 739–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1030–1054 · 49%
-745.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 875–925 · 49%
-723.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1016–1089 · 48%
-926.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 4f76a77aca050a06…
Kickoff
Fri, Jul 31 · 00:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 17797,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": "Scotiabank Arena",
        "league": "Women's National Basketball Association",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Minnesota Lynx",
        "home": "Toronto Tempo"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "L",
            "record": "0W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 97,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 100
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LW",
            "record": "1W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 191,
            "matches": 2,
            "conceded": 188
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 46,
            "home": 48
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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