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Basketball World Cup
Upcoming · in 78h 18m
Syria logo

SyriavsIraq

Iraq logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 24picks

Your call

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AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Consensus split

How the lineup voted · Match winner

6 picks
  • Syria 67% 4/6
  • Iraq 33% 2/6

Model confidence

Each model's confidence in its pick (%)

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Syria 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Iraq

Iraq has historically been the stronger basketball nation in the Levant region, with more consistent FIBA participation and superior roster...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Syria

Syria has a slight edge in the head-to-head record, with 1 win to Iraq's 2. Recent form shows Syria with 1 win and 2 losses, while Iraq has...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Iraq

Iraq fields a deeper and more experienced roster than Syria based on historical FIBA Asia results. Syria plays at home but lacks consistent...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Syria

Based on historical performance data from my training set (up to 2025), Syria generally holds a slight competitive edge over Iraq in interna...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Syria

Based on general knowledge of international basketball, Syria is typically considered the stronger team. While Iraq has shown some competiti...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 85% Syria

Syria has historically been stronger than Iraq in basketball, with better depth and experience. Iraq has struggled in recent international o...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 155

Both Syria and Iraq typically operate at moderate pace in FIBA competition, with neither team featuring high-volume three-point offenses or...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% under

Both teams have struggled offensively in recent matches, with Syria averaging 61.67 points and Iraq 69.67 points per game. The absence of sp...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams play at moderate pace but tend to push tempo in international qualifiers. Defensive ratings are below average allowing higher sco...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Under 145.5

Historically, games between these two nations or similar-tier teams in international competitions tend to be lower scoring due to an emphasi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Predicting totals for basketball without specific team pace data or recent scoring trends is difficult. However, international games can som...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% over

Both teams allow significant transition points and three-point attempts. Syria's up-tempo offense and Iraq's defensive lapses lead to high-s...

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Spread

Consensus
Syria 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Iraq -3.5

Iraq's historical edge in program strength and FIBA experience translates to a modest spread advantage. A 3.5-point line reflects the expect...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Syria

Syria's slight edge in head-to-head record and recent form suggests they may cover a -1 point spread. The match location in Amman, closer to...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Iraq

Iraq is the superior side on paper and should cover a modest spread even on the road. Home-court advantage for Syria is modest in basketball...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Syria -4.5

Reflecting Syria's slight advantage in head-to-head competitiveness, a spread of -4.5 points is anticipated. Their potential home-court boos...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Syria

Given the slight edge in head-to-head and general team strength, Syria is favored to cover a modest spread. This prediction assumes a typica...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Syria

With a spread typically around -8.5 for Syria against Iraq, Syria covers due to superior talent and home court. Iraq's lack of frontcourt de...

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First half winner

Consensus
Syria 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Iraq

Iraq's relative team cohesion and experience in early-game execution within FIBA tournaments gives them an edge in the first half. Syria ten...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Syria

Syria's slight edge in head-to-head record and recent form suggests they may lead at halftime. The match location in Amman, closer to Syria,...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Iraq

Iraq typically starts stronger due to better guard play and early defensive pressure. First-half margins in similar matchups favor the stron...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% Syria

Syria is expected to start strong, aiming to establish an early lead on their home court. Their slight overall competitive edge should trans...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Syria

The prediction for the first half aligns with the overall head-to-head expectation, suggesting Syria will start the game stronger and establ...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 80% Syria

Syria typically starts fast with aggressive defense and early scoring runs. Iraq tends to adjust slowly, often trailing by double digits at...

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Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 90–65 · 58%
-11.1u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 95–81 · 54%
-26.5u
o4-mini
o4-mini 47–45 · 51%
-20.1u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 520–500 · 51%
-351.4u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 138–135 · 51%
-38.8u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 139–137 · 50%
-34.0u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 381–384 · 50%
-186.1u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 81–87 · 48%
-28.6u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 665–719 · 48%
-555.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 665–723 · 48%
-423.4u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 508–562 · 47%
-335.3u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 403–447 · 47%
-309.9u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 74–83 · 47%
-29.3u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 509–608 · 46%
-422.3u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 649–804 · 45%
-646.1u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 105–142 · 43%
-71.5u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 89a52bbd7e2001f2…
Kickoff
Thu, Jul 2 · 13:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9268,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-02T13:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Iraq",
        "home": "Syria"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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