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Basketball World Cup
Final 81–79
South Korea logo

South KoreavsJapan

Japan logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final81–79 Locked 28picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus missed

South Korea 81–79 Japan

5 of 7 AIs leaned Japan — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Japan 5/7
Correct calls
2/7
Final
81–79

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Japan 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Japan -4 L

Japan's slight quality edge translates to a modest home-court disadvantage (South Korea is home in this matchup). Japan likely has better gu...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% Japan L

Given Japan's higher FIBA standing in this window, their recent convincing win and full-ish roster, versus Korea's multiple absences and lik...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% South Korea W

Considering South Korea's recent victories over Japan and their home-court advantage, they are likely to cover a -1 point spread. The close...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Japan

Japan's perimeter attack creates consistent spreads value on the road. Training data through 2025-09 shows Japan covers more often in neutra...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Japan -4.5 L

Building on Japan's perceived talent advantage and recent form, they are expected to win this match by a small margin. A -4.5 spread suggest...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Japan L

Given South Korea is favored, a spread of -5.5 suggests they are expected to win by a moderate margin. However, Japan might be underestimate...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Japan -5.5 L

Japan's talent gap should result in a double-digit win on a neutral court. South Korea fails to cover large spreads due to lack of interior...

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2 sources cited

Match winner

Consensus
Japan 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Japan L

Japan has historically been the stronger basketball nation in East Asia, with deeper roster depth and more consistent international tourname...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 77% Japan L

Japan arrives as the stronger side on paper (FIBA ranking and a 92–73 road win on July 3) and has confirmed a deep 12-man rotation; South Ko...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% South Korea W

South Korea has a slight edge in recent head-to-head matchups, winning 6 out of the last 10 encounters against Japan. Additionally, they sec...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Japan L

Japan has shown superior depth and shooting in recent Asian qualifiers compared to South Korea. Training data through 2025-09 indicates Japa...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Japan L

Based on training data up to late 2024, Japan's national basketball team has shown significant improvement, integrating NBA-level talent and...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% South Korea W

South Korea is generally considered the stronger team in men's basketball and has a historical advantage in head-to-head matchups. Without s...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% Japan L

Japan has been trending upward in basketball, with younger talent and better recent performances in Asian competitions. South Korea struggle...

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2 sources cited

First half winner

Consensus
Japan 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Japan

Japan's team construction typically permits stronger early-game execution and ball movement, which carries extra weight in the opening half...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% South Korea

South Korea's recent performances suggest they may start strong in the first half. Their back-to-back victories over Japan in July 2025 indi...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Japan

Japan tends to start faster with transition scoring. Training data through 2025-09 indicates slight away first-half edge in similar FIBA gam...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Japan

Japan's expected advantage is likely to manifest early in the game, as they tend to start strong and establish control. Their offensive vers...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% South Korea

South Korea, being the slightly stronger team and playing at home, is likely to come out with more energy and establish an early lead. While...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Japan

Japan tends to start games with intensity and build early leads through transition offense. South Korea often comes out cold from the field,...

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2 sources cited

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 165 W

East Asian basketball typically features more defensive-oriented, tempo-controlled play with lower three-point volume than Western leagues....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under W

Korea's key offensive options have been reported out or limited, and one of their main scorers in Japan's league (Lee Hyun-jung) is expected...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have demonstrated high-scoring capabilities in recent matches. South Korea's average points per game is 76.75, while Japan's is 8...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both sides play at above-average pace in international play. Training data through 2025-09 shows Korea-Japan games often exceed 160 combined...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over W

International basketball games, especially in a World Cup setting between competitive Asian teams, often feature a decent pace. Both teams a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over W

Basketball games, especially in international tournaments, tend to have higher scoring potential. Assuming a moderate pace and reasonable of...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Under 160.5

Both teams play with moderate pace, and South Korea's offense often stalls against stronger defenses. Japan can be inconsistent from three,...

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2 sources cited

First half h2h

Consensus
Japan 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% Japan

Japan's starting group (experienced guards/wings/center) should produce a stronger early look than a Korea team missing key scorers, making...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Japan

77
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Japan

62
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Japan

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Japan

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

South Korea

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Japan

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

South Korea

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1107–1136 · 49%
-827.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 3803edf8e17382d8…
Kickoff
Mon, Jul 6 · 10:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9966,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-06T10:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 06 Jul 2026 10:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Japan",
        "home": "South Korea"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "W",
            "record": "1W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 92,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 73
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 2
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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