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Basketball World Cup
Final 94–81
Serbia logo

SerbiavsBosnia & Herzegovina

Bosnia & Herzegovina logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final94–81 Locked 28picks · 16 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Serbia 94–81 Bosnia & Herzegovina

All 7 AIs backed Serbia — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Serbia 7/7
Correct calls
7/7
Final
94–81

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First half winner

Consensus
Serbia 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 64% Serbia

Serbia's stronger roster and experience carry into the first half with no injury or lineup caveats flagged in the brief. First halves typica...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% Serbia

Serbia should set the tempo early: Jokic's pick-and-roll and halfcourt control typically produce early advantages and Serbia will seek to im...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Serbia

Serbia is expected to start strong in the first half, leveraging their home advantage and recent form to take an early lead.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 71% Serbia

Serbia tends to establish early leads through superior starting units and home energy. Bosnia's recent loss indicates slow starts that compo...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Serbia

Serbia's strong offensive performance in their last match suggests they are likely to start aggressively and build an early lead. Their high...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Serbia

Serbia typically starts strong and establishes early leads. Their depth and quality should control the first half, similar to historical pat...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 155.5

Without live pace metrics or current three-point volume data, totals prediction relies on World Cup basketball norms: international play typ...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% over W

Combined FIBA qualifying averages (~85.0 PPG for Serbia, ~78.6 PPG for Bosnia = ~163.6 combined) sit near typical bookmaker totals; Jokic's...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% over W

Both teams have shown the ability to score high points in recent games, and with Serbia's offensive strength, the total points are likely to...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% over

Serbia's offensive rating and 3PT volume typically push games above average totals in World Cup settings. Bosnia's defensive vulnerabilities...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% over_155.5 W

Serbia's last game saw them score 97 points, indicating strong offensive capability. Even if Bosnia struggles offensively, Serbia's high sco...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% over

Serbia's recent scoring output of 97 points indicates a high-paced offense capable of driving up the total score. While Bosnia & Herzegovina...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 155.5

Both teams have offensive potential; Serbia scored 97 and Bosnia 75 in limited data. Expect moderate pace with enough scoring to surpass a t...

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Spread

Consensus
Serbia -8.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Serbia -8.5 W

Serbia's roster depth, World Cup experience, and home-court advantage justify a mid-single-digit spread. The reference form (Serbia's 24-poi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Serbia W

With Jokic available and Bosnia missing Dzanan Musa, Serbia's margin profile moves materially in their favor; recent meetings have been comp...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% Serbia W

Given Serbia's home advantage and superior squad, they are likely to cover a -1 point spread against Bosnia & Herzegovina.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 61% Serbia -8.5 W

Serbia's talent edge and home scoring margin (24-point win in last outing) support a double-digit spread cover. Bosnia lacks the perimeter c...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Serbia_ -15.5

Serbia is expected to be a dominant force in this match. Their last game's +24 point differential suggests they can comfortably cover a -15....

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Serbia -8.5 W

Given Serbia's superior recent performance and offensive firepower, they are favored to win by a significant margin. Their ability to score...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Serbia -6.5 W

Serbia's overall strength and home advantage suggest a comfortable win margin. Previous match data shows Serbia winning by 24, though Bosnia...

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First half h2h

Consensus
Serbia 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 80% Serbia

Serbia's superior quality and offensive strength should allow them to establish control early in the game. It is highly probable they will w...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Match winner

Consensus
Serbia 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Serbia W

Serbia enters as the stronger side based on training knowledge through 2025-09, with a track record as a competitive World Cup participant a...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 85% Serbia W

Serbia are the clear favorite: Nikola Jokić is active and carried Serbia (22/14/7) in the July window while Bosnia are missing their primary...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Serbia W

Serbia has a strong home-court advantage and has consistently outperformed Bosnia & Herzegovina in recent matchups, including a 74-72 victor...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 82% Serbia W

Serbia enters with superior roster depth and recent scoring output (97 points) against a Bosnia side that has struggled offensively (75 poin...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 85% Serbia W

Based on historical performance and general perception, Serbia is a significantly stronger basketball nation than Bosnia & Herzegovina, part...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 70% Serbia W

Serbia enters this matchup with stronger recent form, demonstrated by their win in their last match compared to Bosnia & Herzegovina's loss....

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Serbia W

Serbia has a stronger basketball tradition and recent form (win vs. loss) despite the brief provided. Historical head-to-head favors Serbia...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Serbia

85
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Serbia

85
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Serbia

85
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Serbia

82
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Serbia

70
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Serbia

70
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Serbia

68

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1107–1136 · 49%
-827.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 2576742bcb04151d…
Kickoff
Mon, Jul 6 · 18:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9978,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-06T18:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 06 Jul 2026 18:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
        "home": "Serbia"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "L",
            "record": "0W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 75,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 82
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "W",
            "record": "1W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 97,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 73
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 4,
            "home": 4
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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