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Basketball World Cup
Upcoming · in 81h 51m
Senegal logo

SenegalvsMadagascar

Madagascar logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 24picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
Under 155.5 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 65% Under 155.5

Both teams lack elite offensive firepower and three-point shooting volume. Senegal's defense will likely impose a slow, grind-oriented pace...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% over

In their previous match, Senegal scored 99 points against Madagascar, indicating a high-scoring game. Given Senegal's offensive strength and...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% under

World Cup qualifiers between mismatched African teams often produce lower-scoring games due to defensive schemes and limited offensive talen...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Under 155.5

Given Senegal's likely defensive strength against a less potent Madagascar offense, a lower-scoring affair is anticipated. Madagascar may st...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

While specific pace information is unavailable, international basketball qualifiers often see a moderate to high scoring output as teams aim...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over

Total line is unknown, but based on typical World Cup totals (around 150-170), I lean slightly over as both teams may lack elite defense. Ho...

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Spread

Consensus
Senegal 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Senegal -13.5

The talent gap between a FIBA-ranked African nation and an uncompetitive outlier is substantial. Senegal should win by 15–20 points in a con...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Senegal

Senegal's dominant performance in previous encounters, including a decisive 99-66 win over Madagascar, suggests they will cover a -1 point s...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 72% Senegal

Senegal is the clear class of the matchup and should cover a standard spread in a World Cup qualifier. Training data through 2025-09 shows S...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 75% Senegal -15.5

Senegal's historical dominance over Madagascar in basketball suggests they will not only win but do so comfortably, covering a significant s...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Madagascar

Given Senegal is favored, Madagascar is likely to be the underdog. They will probably play with a high degree of intensity to keep the game...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Senegal -4.5

Assuming a typical spread around -4.5 for the stronger team, Senegal's historical edge suggests they cover. However, without precise odds or...

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First half h2h

Consensus
Senegal 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 80% Senegal

Senegal's superior talent and experience are expected to manifest early in the game, allowing them to establish a comfortable lead by halfti...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Match winner

Consensus
Senegal 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 72% Senegal

Senegal is a significantly stronger basketball nation with consistent World Cup participation, superior athleticism, and depth. Madagascar h...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 90% Senegal

Senegal has a perfect record against Madagascar, winning both previous encounters by significant margins. Their recent form, including a 99-...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 78% Senegal

Senegal has historically dominated Madagascar in African basketball competitions and possesses superior roster depth. Training data through...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 85% Senegal

Senegal has historically been a much stronger basketball nation than Madagascar, boasting more professional talent and deeper runs in intern...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Senegal

Senegal is historically the stronger basketball nation and is likely to have a significant home-court advantage in this World Cup qualifier....

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Senegal

Senegal has historically been a stronger basketball nation than Madagascar, with more experienced players and better performances in African...

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First half winner

Consensus
Senegal 5/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 70% Senegal

Senegal's superior fundamentals and defensive discipline will manifest early. Madagascar will likely trail significantly in the opening quar...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Senegal

Senegal's strong start in previous matches, including a 22-19 first-quarter lead against Madagascar, indicates they are likely to lead at ha...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 70% Senegal

Senegal typically establishes early leads with stronger starting units and better preparation. Training data through 2025-09 indicates favor...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Senegal

Senegal is expected to come out strong at home, leveraging the crowd support and their perceived superior talent. They will aim to establish...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Senegal

Senegal's overall strength likely translates to an early lead. First half outcomes correlate with full game, so Senegal is favored.

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Senegal

90
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Senegal

85
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Senegal

78
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Senegal

72
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Senegal

70
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Senegal

65

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 109–72 · 60%
-6.4u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 111–93 · 54%
-30.7u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 451–420 · 52%
-212.6u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 595–556 · 52%
-390.8u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 153–149 · 51%
-36.2u
o4-mini
o4-mini 56–55 · 50%
-17.1u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 147–146 · 50%
-44.9u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 89–94 · 49%
+54.1u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 734–784 · 48%
-605.3u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 93–100 · 48%
+49.1u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 717–782 · 48%
-476.9u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 417–459 · 48%
-313.4u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 547–607 · 47%
-371.1u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 571–661 · 46%
-469.2u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 701–850 · 45%
-687.9u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 119–152 · 44%
-64.7u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 8296cf1987ec5341…
Kickoff
Sat, Jul 4 · 18:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9584,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-04T18:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 04 Jul 2026 18:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Madagascar",
        "home": "Senegal"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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