San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks

Final: 90 – 94

Picks locked at Jun 13 · 01:06 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded · 9 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    363383cf22421c65…

Sport: Sun, Jun 14 · 00:30 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_half
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2322,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "NBA",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T00:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 00:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Knicks",
        "home": "San Antonio Spurs"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T18:31:46+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Spread ?	Over / Under ?	Match winner ?	First half winner ?	First half h2h ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	55% New York Knicks -4.5 V	58% Over 215 L	62% New York Knicks W	60% New York Knicks V	—
Spread ? 55% New York Knicks -4.5 A 4.5-point Knicks spread aligns with them being favored in this Finals matchup, likely as the higher seed or stronger regular-season team.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 58% Over 215 NBA Finals games in modern era typically feature elevated scoring as both teams push pace and hunt shooting opportunities. The Knicks' offen... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 62% New York Knicks The June 14 date places this in the NBA Finals (likely Game 1 or 2 of a Finals series). The Knicks have been the stronger regular-season tea... Unlock reasoning · Pro First half winner ? 60% New York Knicks The Knicks' superior regular-season offensive efficiency and aggressive pace should translate to a first-half advantage in a Finals opener o... Unlock reasoning · Pro First half h2h ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—
Spread ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. First half winner ? No pick on this market. First half h2h ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—
Spread ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. First half winner ? No pick on this market. First half h2h ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	52% San Antonio Spurs V	51% over V	53% San Antonio Spurs L	51% San Antonio Spurs V	—
Spread ? 52% San Antonio Spurs Training data through 2023-09 gives Spurs slight home cover rate against Eastern teams. Knicks road ATS performance was mixed in prior years... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Training data through 2023-09 indicates NBA scoring trends rising year over year. Spurs and Knicks both feature offensive talent that tends... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 53% San Antonio Spurs Training data through 2023-09 shows Spurs building around young core with home advantage in most seasons. Knicks have shown inconsistency on... Unlock reasoning · Pro First half winner ? 51% San Antonio Spurs Training data through 2023-09 shows home teams often leading after first half due to familiarity. Both squads have scoring bursts early in g... Unlock reasoning · Pro First half h2h ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	52% New York Knicks -3.5 V	53% Over 228.5 L	55% New York Knicks W	—	53% New York Knicks V
Spread ? 52% New York Knicks -3.5 Consistent with the head-to-head prediction, the New York Knicks are expected to secure a victory. A spread of -3.5 is a reasonable expectat... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Over 228.5 NBA scoring trends observed in my training data through late 2025 indicate a generally high-scoring league, with average totals often fallin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% New York Knicks Based on my training data up to late 2025, the New York Knicks have consistently performed as a more established playoff contender compared... Unlock reasoning · Pro First half winner ? No pick on this market. First half h2h ? 53% New York Knicks Aligning with the full-game prediction, the New York Knicks are projected to establish an early lead and maintain it through the first half.... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	52% New York Knicks V	60% over V	55% New York Knicks L	54% New York Knicks V	—
Spread ? 52% New York Knicks Given the slight historical edge for the Knicks, they are favored to cover a moderate spread. This accounts for them potentially winning by... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% over The NBA typically sees high scoring games, and without specific information on defensive matchups or recent scoring trends, it's safer to pr... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% New York Knicks Based on training data, the New York Knicks have historically performed better than the San Antonio Spurs. While specific recent form isn't... Unlock reasoning · Pro First half winner ? 54% New York Knicks The Knicks are predicted to have a slight edge in the first half, aligning with their historical overall advantage. Teams often establish ea... Unlock reasoning · Pro First half h2h ? No pick on this market.
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	51% San Antonio Spurs -3.5 V	53% Over 220.5 V	57% San Antonio Spurs L	54% San Antonio Spurs V	—
Spread ? 51% San Antonio Spurs -3.5 I expect a close game but give the Spurs a slight edge due to home advantage and rest. The spread is tight, so the margin is narrow. The Spu... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Over 220.5 Both teams have above-average offensive ratings from the training period. The Spurs play at a decent pace at home, and the Knicks have been... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 57% San Antonio Spurs Based on training data through mid-2025, the Spurs have been a strong home team, especially in June when rested. The Knicks are solid but fa... Unlock reasoning · Pro First half winner ? 54% San Antonio Spurs The Spurs often start strong at home, and the Knicks may need time to adjust to the environment. From training data, the Spurs are slightly... Unlock reasoning · Pro First half h2h ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	New York Knicks -3.5 2/6	over 2/6	New York Knicks 4/6	New York Knicks 3/5	New York Knicks 1/1

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