Football
Virsliga
· Skonto stadions
Upcoming · in 19h 59m
Riga vs Rīgas FS
Kickoff · Wed, Jun 17 · 16:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
2fe618dd7ca7f1fc…
- Kickoff
- Wed, Jun 17 · 16:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time · Correct score
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 7. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 7, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-16T20:00:58+00:00",
"event": {
"id": 2015,
"sport": "football",
"league": "Virsliga",
"starts_at": "2026-06-17T16:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:00:00 GMT",
"venue": "Skonto stadions"
},
"teams": {
"home": "Riga",
"away": "Rīgas FS"
},
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"home": 2.45,
"draw": 3.5,
"away": 2.75
},
"extra_markets": {
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away",
"price": 2.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home",
"price": 2.36
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home",
"price": 1.67
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away",
"price": 2.7
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home",
"price": 2.32
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away",
"price": 1.87
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home",
"price": 1.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away",
"price": 2.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 3.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home",
"price": 2.42
}
],
"totals": [
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 3.5",
"price": 1.37
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 3.5",
"price": 2.7
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 2.5",
"price": 2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 2.5",
"price": 1.72
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.5",
"price": 3.65
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.5",
"price": 1.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.0",
"price": 1.83
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.0",
"price": 1.7
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.5",
"price": 1.4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.5",
"price": 2.4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 2.75",
"price": 1.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 2.75",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 2.5",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 2.5",
"price": 1.72
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 4.5",
"price": 1.01
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 4.5",
"price": 23
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.25",
"price": 2.02
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.25",
"price": 1.69
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.0",
"price": 2.79
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.0",
"price": 1.35
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 0.75",
"price": 3.36
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 0.75",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 0.5",
"price": 4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 0.5",
"price": 1.17
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 3.5",
"price": 1.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 3.5",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 2.5",
"price": 1.15
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 2.5",
"price": 4.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 2.25",
"price": 1.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 2.25",
"price": 3.7
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 2.0",
"price": 1.27
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 2.0",
"price": 3.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.75",
"price": 1.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.75",
"price": 2.39
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.5",
"price": 1.71
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.5",
"price": 1.99
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 4.5",
"price": 50
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.25",
"price": 1.55
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.25",
"price": 2.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.0",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.0",
"price": 1.78
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 0.75",
"price": 2.36
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 0.75",
"price": 1.48
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 0.5",
"price": 2.83
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 0.5",
"price": 1.34
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 3.5",
"price": 1.02
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 3.5",
"price": 12
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 2.5",
"price": 1.04
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 2.5",
"price": 6.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 2.25",
"price": 1.06
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 2.25",
"price": 6.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 2.0",
"price": 1.09
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 2.0",
"price": 5.4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.75",
"price": 1.24
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.75",
"price": 3.34
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 1.5",
"price": 1.39
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 1.5",
"price": 2.63
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 6.5",
"price": 1.01
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 6.5",
"price": 12
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 5.5",
"price": 1.04
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 5.5",
"price": 11
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 7.5",
"price": 1
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 7.5",
"price": 21
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 4.75",
"price": 1.03
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 4.75",
"price": 7.4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 4.25",
"price": 1.09
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 4.25",
"price": 5.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 4.0",
"price": 1.11
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 4.0",
"price": 4.95
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Under 3.75",
"price": 1.21
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Over 3.75",
"price": 3.58
}
],
"spreads": [
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away +1.5",
"price": 8.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home +1.5",
"price": 1.02
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away -1.5",
"price": 1.03
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home -1.5",
"price": 7.7
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away +1",
"price": 6.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home +1",
"price": 1.04
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away +0.75",
"price": 3.84
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home +0.75",
"price": 1.18
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away +0.25",
"price": 2.36
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home +0.25",
"price": 1.48
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away +0",
"price": 1.86
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home +0",
"price": 1.78
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away -0.25",
"price": 1.53
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home -0.25",
"price": 2.24
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away -0.75",
"price": 1.21
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home -0.75",
"price": 3.58
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away -1",
"price": 1.06
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home -1",
"price": 6.15
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away -1.5",
"price": 1.03
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home -1.5",
"price": 8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away +1",
"price": 8.9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home +1",
"price": 1.01
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away +0.75",
"price": 4.49
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home +0.75",
"price": 1.13
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away +0.25",
"price": 2.53
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home +0.25",
"price": 1.42
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away +0",
"price": 1.86
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home +0",
"price": 1.78
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away -0.25",
"price": 1.46
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home -0.25",
"price": 2.41
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away -0.75",
"price": 1.15
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home -0.75",
"price": 4.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Away -1",
"price": 1.02
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Home -1",
"price": 8.3
}
],
"btts": [
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "No",
"price": 1.33
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Yes",
"price": 2.97
}
]
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line."
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft",
"correct_score"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
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Bookmaker odds
10 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Riga | Draw | Rīgas FS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 ↗ | — | 3.25 | — |
| Unibet | — | 3.10 | — |
| 10bet | — | 3.40 | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | 3.20 | — |
| Betano | — | 3.20 | — |
| Betfair | — | 3.50 | — |
| Dafabet | — | 3.40 | — |
| Marathonbet | — | 3.20 | — |
| Superbet | — | 3.25 | — |
| William-hill | — | 3.10 | — |
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