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Basketball World Cup
Upcoming · in 79h 03m
Nigeria logo

NigeriavsGuinea

Guinea logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 24picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Consensus split

How the lineup voted · Match winner

6 picks
  • Nigeria 100% 6/6

Model confidence

Each model's confidence in its pick (%)

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Nigeria 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Nigeria

Nigeria is the stronger basketball nation in West Africa with more consistent development programs, higher FIBA ranking, and deeper roster t...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Nigeria

Nigeria's recent form includes a win against Rwanda and a loss to Tunisia, while Guinea has a perfect record in the qualifiers so far. Howev...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 82% Nigeria

Nigeria fields multiple NBA-level players and has historically dominated African qualifiers while Guinea lacks comparable talent depth. Trai...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 90% Nigeria

This prediction is based on historical team strength from my training data, as the match is scheduled for July 2026. Nigeria has consistentl...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Nigeria

Nigeria is the stronger team based on historical performance and likely possesses a superior roster for this World Cup matchup. Their home a...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Nigeria

Nigeria has a stronger basketball tradition and deeper talent pool compared to Guinea, who are less established in international basketball....

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 160

World Cup qualification/group matches between African nations tend toward slower, more defensive-minded play with lower possessions-per-game...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent matches, suggesting a high-scoring game. ([fiba.basketball](https://www.fiba.basketba...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 61% over

Nigeria plays at a high pace in international competition; Guinea's weaker defense inflates possessions. Historical scoring in similar misma...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 155.5

Given Nigeria's offensive potential and the general scoring trends in international basketball, I anticipate them to contribute significantl...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Basketball games in international tournaments often see higher scores due to the quality of play and offensive strategies. While specific te...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 160.5

International basketball games often have lower totals due to shorter shot clocks and less offensive flow, but Nigeria's pace and Guinea's d...

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Spread

Consensus
Nigeria 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Nigeria -8

Nigeria's talent gap and organizational depth warrant a mid-sized spread. Guinea is a weaker program with limited depth; Nigeria should win...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Nigeria

Nigeria's home advantage and recent coaching changes may lead to a close win, covering the -1 spread. ([fiba.basketball](https://www.fiba.ba...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 78% Nigeria

Talent gap projects Nigeria to win by double digits; Guinea rarely keeps games within single digits versus top African teams. Home venue add...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Nigeria -14.5

Nigeria's historical advantage in talent and depth over Guinea is considerable, making a significant point differential very likely. Even a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Guinea

Given the slight perceived edge for Nigeria in the head-to-head, a spread that favors Guinea by 4.5 points suggests a close contest. This pi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Nigeria -12.5

Nigeria's talent advantage should translate into a double-digit win margin. Guinea lacks the offensive firepower to keep pace. A 12.5-point...

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First half winner

Consensus
Nigeria 5/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 65% Nigeria

Nigeria's talent should show up early in a World Cup match where both teams are fresh and disciplined. First-half play tends to be more cons...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Nigeria

Nigeria's home advantage and recent coaching changes may lead to a strong first-half performance. ([fiba.basketball](https://www.fiba.basket...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 75% Nigeria

Nigeria typically jumps out fast with superior athleticism and preparation; Guinea struggles with early execution. First-half margins in pas...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Nigeria

Nigeria is favored to win the overall game, and they are also expected to perform better in the first half. Teams often come out with more e...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Nigeria

Nigeria typically starts strong, establishing an early lead against weaker opponents. Guinea may struggle in the first half due to inexperie...

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First half h2h

Consensus
Nigeria 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 85% Nigeria

Nigeria is expected to assert its dominance from the outset of the game, establishing an early lead. Their superior talent and strategic pla...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 96–72 · 57%
-14.6u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 101–89 · 53%
-31.9u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 552–533 · 51%
-384.4u
o4-mini
o4-mini 53–52 · 50%
-17.6u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 402–405 · 50%
-207.1u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 142–144 · 50%
-45.3u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 142–147 · 49%
-42.1u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 692–758 · 48%
-594.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 685–757 · 48%
-457.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 407–456 · 47%
-316.4u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 522–591 · 47%
-364.3u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 84–96 · 47%
-35.7u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 77–92 · 46%
-36.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 532–640 · 45%
-452.6u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 672–829 · 45%
-671.1u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 108–151 · 42%
-78.6u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: cc112a4fd2f5b5d3…
Kickoff
Fri, Jul 3 · 15:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9319,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-03T15:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 03 Jul 2026 15:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Guinea",
        "home": "Nigeria"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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