Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
Basketball Women's National Basketball Association · Target Center
Awaiting result · 992h 06m ago
ML

Minnesota LynxvsLos Angeles Sparks

LA
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Minnesota Lynx 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota Lynx hold a strong home-court advantage at Target Center and have a deeper recent roster with established stars (Kayla McBride, Na...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota is the clearer quality side: league-best net rating, top offensive efficiency and a much stronger defensive profile this season, p...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Minnesota Lynx

The Minnesota Lynx have a strong home-court advantage, with a solid home record in the 2026 season. The Los Angeles Sparks have struggled on...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 68% Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota Lynx have historically been the stronger franchise with better depth and home-court advantage at Target Center. Los Angeles Sparks...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Minnesota Lynx

Based on general WNBA team strength and historical performance, the Minnesota Lynx often leverage their home-court advantage effectively. Wh...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Minnesota Lynx

The Minnesota Lynx hold a better position in the Western Conference and benefit from home-court advantage at the Target Center. While the Sp...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Los Angeles Sparks

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Sparks have been more consistent and have a stronger overall roster, especially in offensive eff...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over 162.5

Lynx's recent 97-point effort in a loss suggests they play at a higher pace (likely 80+ possessions per game), whereas Sparks' 88-point rece...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over

Combined team scoring averages (~91.5 for Minnesota + ~88.3 for LA = ~179.8) and Minnesota's pace (~95.8 possessions) point toward a game ab...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent games, suggesting a higher-scoring matchup. The over 2.5 total points line is likely...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Pace tends to be moderate in Lynx home games but Sparks push transition offense. Historical averages for these teams produce totals near or...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over

WNBA games frequently feature high scoring, especially with dynamic offensive players. Both the Lynx and Sparks have historically fielded te...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Both teams have shown the capacity to score, with the Lynx having a higher scoring average. The Sparks, despite inconsistencies, can put up...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both teams have shown high-scoring tendencies in recent games, and the Sparks' fast pace combined with the Lynx's streak shooting suggests t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Minnesota Lynx 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Minnesota Lynx -4.5

Home-court edge in WNBA typically 2–3 points; Lynx's deeper roster and higher-pace offense support a moderate spread advantage over the Spar...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 67% Minnesota Lynx -7.5

Minnesota's large positive net rating, stronger defense, and the boost from Collier's return justify a ~7-point road/home spread in their fa...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Minnesota Lynx

The Minnesota Lynx's home-court advantage and the Los Angeles Sparks' road struggles suggest the Lynx are likely to cover the -1 point sprea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Minnesota Lynx

Lynx typically cover modest home spreads due to defensive rating and crowd support. Sparks struggle to cover on the road against top-half op...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Minnesota Lynx -5.5

The Minnesota Lynx typically perform well at home and are known for their strong overall team play. A -5.5 point spread suggests they are fa...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Los Angeles Sparks

While the Lynx are favored at home, the Sparks have demonstrated an ability to keep games closer than their conference standing might sugges...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Los Angeles Sparks

The Sparks' recent form and overall roster strength suggest they can cover a typical road spread. The Lynx have had defensive lapses, and ev...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First half winner

Consensus
Minnesota Lynx 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Minnesota Lynx

First-half play in WNBA often mirrors full-game trends, especially when pace is a differentiator. Lynx's higher-tempo approach (evidenced by...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota's methodical, efficient offense and strong half-game defense make them slightly more likely to lead at halftime, especially at hom...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Minnesota Lynx

The Minnesota Lynx are expected to start strong at home, potentially leading at halftime. Their home performance in the 2026 season supports...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 59% Minnesota Lynx

Lynx tend to start strong at home with early defensive intensity. Sparks have shown slower first-half starts in past seasons. Training data...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Minnesota Lynx

Home teams in the WNBA often start strong, fueled by the crowd energy and familiarity with their court. The Minnesota Lynx, in particular, t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Minnesota Lynx

The Minnesota Lynx often start strong at home, leveraging their crowd and established game plan. While the Sparks can be competitive, the Ly...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Los Angeles Sparks

The Sparks tend to start games strongly, often taking early leads due to their fast-paced offense. The Lynx have been slow starters, which c...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Minnesota Lynx

68
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Minnesota Lynx

68
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Minnesota Lynx

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Minnesota Lynx

60
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Los Angeles Sparks

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Minnesota Lynx

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Minnesota Lynx

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1223–997 · 55%
-800.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 737–629 · 54%
-408.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 1643–1754 · 48%
-1,512.5u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1071–1150 · 48%
-987.0u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1996–2176 · 48%
-1,990.7u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1977–2245 · 47%
-1,936.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 1664–1958 · 46%
-1,756.8u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 2f22f21076351057…
Kickoff
Fri, Aug 7 · 01:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 20926,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": "Target Center",
        "league": "Women's National Basketball Association",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-07T01:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 07 Aug 2026 01:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Los Angeles Sparks",
        "home": "Minnesota Lynx"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "W",
            "record": "1W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 88,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 83
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "L",
            "record": "0W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 97,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 100
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 56,
            "home": 54
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →