Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
Basketball World Cup
Upcoming · in 81h 18m
Jordan logo

JordanvsIran

Iran logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 24picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Consensus split

How the lineup voted · Match winner

6 picks
  • Iran 67% 4/6
  • Jordan 33% 2/6

Model confidence

Each model's confidence in its pick (%)

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Iran 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Jordan

Jordan has historically been the stronger FIBA basketball nation, with more consistent World Cup performances and deeper roster talent in th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Iran

Iran has a strong historical record against Jordan, winning 16 out of 21 encounters. Despite Jordan's recent form, Iran's overall dominance...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Iran

Iran maintains a stronger national basketball program than Jordan based on historical results through 2023. The 2026 World Cup match falls o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Iran

Based on historical performance captured in my training data through 2025-09, Iran has generally been the stronger basketball nation in Asia...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Jordan

Jordan is the home team in this World Cup qualifier, which generally provides a slight advantage. While specific recent form and head-to-hea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Iran

In recent head-to-head matches, Iran has had a slight edge over Jordan. Both teams are evenly matched, but Iran's superior depth and experie...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
under 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 165.5

International FIBA basketball games, especially World Cup matches, tend toward slightly slower pace and lower three-point volume than NBA pl...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% under

Both teams have shown a tendency towards lower-scoring games in recent encounters, with the last match ending 73-60 in favor of Jordan. This...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% under

Both teams trend toward controlled pace in FIBA competition per historical patterns. International games often produce lower totals than clu...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% under_155.5

Assuming a total line of 155.5 points, my training data indicates that international basketball matches, especially in World Cup settings, t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Without specific pace or offensive/defensive rating data, predicting totals is challenging. However, World Cup qualifiers can often be more...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over

Both teams have average offensive ratings and tend to play at a moderate pace. However, recent meetings have seen higher scoring games, and...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Iran 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Jordan -5.5

Jordan's historical strength and deeper professional roster suggest they should win by a modest margin in a neutral-venue matchup. A 5.5-poi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Iran

Given Iran's superior head-to-head record and recent form, they are likely to cover a -1 point spread against Jordan.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Iran

Iran's superior depth and experience typically overcome modest home-court disadvantages in Asian qualifiers and World Cup events. Spread val...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Iran -4.5

Given Iran's historical superiority over Jordan based on training data through 2025-09, a -4.5 point spread for Iran seems achievable. While...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Iran

Given the slight lean towards Jordan winning (h2h), a -1 spread for them implies they need to win by more than one goal. Without detailed in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Iran -1.5

Iran's consistency and slightly better form give them a small edge to cover a narrow spread. The game is expected to be close, but Iran has...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First half winner

Consensus
Iran 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Jordan

Jordan's talent advantage is likely to manifest early in the match before Iran can mount a comeback. In international tournaments, strong te...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Iran

Iran's consistent performance in the first half of previous matches suggests they will lead at halftime against Jordan.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% Iran

Iran generally establishes early leads through better execution and veteran leadership in international settings. First-half margins track f...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Iran

Similar to the full-game outcome, my training data suggests Iran tends to assert dominance early in matches against regional rivals like Jor...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 45% Draw

First halves in competitive matches can often be cagey affairs as teams feel each other out. With limited information on offensive intensity...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Iran

Iran tends to start strong and build early leads, while Jordan often starts slower. This trend gives Iran the advantage in the first half.

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 90–65 · 58%
-11.1u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 95–81 · 54%
-26.5u
o4-mini
o4-mini 47–45 · 51%
-20.1u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 520–500 · 51%
-351.4u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 138–135 · 51%
-38.8u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 139–137 · 50%
-34.0u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 381–384 · 50%
-186.1u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 81–87 · 48%
-28.6u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 665–719 · 48%
-555.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 665–723 · 48%
-423.4u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 508–562 · 47%
-335.3u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 403–447 · 47%
-309.9u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 74–83 · 47%
-29.3u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 509–608 · 46%
-422.3u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 649–804 · 45%
-646.1u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 105–142 · 43%
-71.5u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 569cc3c36d4eca15…
Kickoff
Thu, Jul 2 · 16:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9275,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-02T16:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 02 Jul 2026 16:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Iran",
        "home": "Jordan"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →