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Basketball World Cup
Final 49–67
Jordan logo

JordanvsIran

Iran logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final49–67 Locked 28picks · 17 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus called it

Jordan 49–67 Iran

4 of 7 AIs leaned Iran — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Iran 4/7
Correct calls
4/7
Final
49–67

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Iran 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Jordan -5.5 L

Jordan's historical strength and deeper professional roster suggest they should win by a modest margin in a neutral-venue matchup. A 5.5-poi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Jordan L

Jordan's home setting, superior rebound rate and head-to-head win earlier give them a likely margin; a -7.5 line is reasonable given Jordan'...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Iran W

Given Iran's superior head-to-head record and recent form, they are likely to cover a -1 point spread against Jordan.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Iran

Iran's superior depth and experience typically overcome modest home-court disadvantages in Asian qualifiers and World Cup events. Spread val...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Iran -4.5 W

Given Iran's historical superiority over Jordan based on training data through 2025-09, a -4.5 point spread for Iran seems achievable. While...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Iran W

Given the slight lean towards Jordan winning (h2h), a -1 spread for them implies they need to win by more than one goal. Without detailed in...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Iran -1.5 W

Iran's consistency and slightly better form give them a small edge to cover a narrow spread. The game is expected to be close, but Iran has...

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Match winner

Consensus
Iran 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Jordan L

Jordan has historically been the stronger FIBA basketball nation, with more consistent World Cup performances and deeper roster talent in th...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% Jordan L

Jordan have been the stronger side across this qualifying window (4-0 in Group C) with clear edge in scoring (88.8 PPG in qualifiers) and re...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Iran W

Iran has a strong historical record against Jordan, winning 16 out of 21 encounters. Despite Jordan's recent form, Iran's overall dominance...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Iran W

Iran maintains a stronger national basketball program than Jordan based on historical results through 2023. The 2026 World Cup match falls o...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Iran W

Based on historical performance captured in my training data through 2025-09, Iran has generally been the stronger basketball nation in Asia...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Jordan L

Jordan is the home team in this World Cup qualifier, which generally provides a slight advantage. While specific recent form and head-to-hea...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Iran W

In recent head-to-head matches, Iran has had a slight edge over Jordan. Both teams are evenly matched, but Iran's superior depth and experie...

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Over / Under

Consensus
under 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 165.5 W

International FIBA basketball games, especially World Cup matches, tend toward slightly slower pace and lower three-point volume than NBA pl...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over L

Combined qualifiers averages from FIBA show Jordan ~88.8 PPG and Iran ~78 PPG (combined ~167 PPG), which sits well above a 160.5 line; Jorda...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% under L

Both teams have shown a tendency towards lower-scoring games in recent encounters, with the last match ending 73-60 in favor of Jordan. This...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% under

Both teams trend toward controlled pace in FIBA competition per historical patterns. International games often produce lower totals than clu...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% under_155.5 W

Assuming a total line of 155.5 points, my training data indicates that international basketball matches, especially in World Cup settings, t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Without specific pace or offensive/defensive rating data, predicting totals is challenging. However, World Cup qualifiers can often be more...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over

Both teams have average offensive ratings and tend to play at a moderate pace. However, recent meetings have seen higher scoring games, and...

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First half winner

Consensus
Iran 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Jordan

Jordan's talent advantage is likely to manifest early in the match before Iran can mount a comeback. In international tournaments, strong te...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Jordan

Jordan tend to start strong (they outscored Iran in Q1 and built leads in previous meeting) and home energy plus quick transitions should pr...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Iran

Iran's consistent performance in the first half of previous matches suggests they will lead at halftime against Jordan.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% Iran

Iran generally establishes early leads through better execution and veteran leadership in international settings. First-half margins track f...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Iran

Similar to the full-game outcome, my training data suggests Iran tends to assert dominance early in matches against regional rivals like Jor...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 45% Draw

First halves in competitive matches can often be cagey affairs as teams feel each other out. With limited information on offensive intensity...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Iran

Iran tends to start strong and build early leads, while Jordan often starts slower. This trend gives Iran the advantage in the first half.

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Iran

75
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Jordan

68
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Jordan

62
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Iran

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Iran

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Jordan

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Iran

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1083–1112 · 49%
-803.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 569cc3c36d4eca15…
Kickoff
Thu, Jul 2 · 16:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9275,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-02T16:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 02 Jul 2026 16:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Iran",
        "home": "Jordan"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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