Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
Basketball World Cup
Upcoming · in 77h 24m
Ivory Coast logo

Ivory CoastvsMadagascar

Madagascar logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 24picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Ivory Coast 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 72% Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast is a significantly stronger basketball nation with established infrastructure, better player development, and prior World Cup ex...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast has demonstrated superior performance in recent matches, including a decisive 99-74 victory over Madagascar on March 1, 2026. Th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 78% Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast holds a clear talent and ranking edge over Madagascar in FIBA competition. Home-court advantage in a World Cup qualifier setting...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 88% Ivory Coast

Based on historical performance and national team strength from training data through late 2023, Ivory Coast is a significantly stronger bas...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast is a significantly stronger basketball nation historically and is expected to have a considerable home-court advantage. Madagasc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 80% Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast has historically been stronger in African basketball and is the home team. Madagascar is a less established basketball nation, a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 160

Without specific possession-pace data or recent form, a 160-point total for a World Cup match involving two mid-tier African programs sugges...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% over

Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring games. In their previous encounter, the total points scored were 173, well above the 2.5 m...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

World Cup games between African sides tend to feature moderate-to-high pace when one team is outmatched. Ivory Coast's offensive style shoul...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Under 145.5

International basketball games, especially when one team is significantly weaker offensively, tend to be lower scoring. Ivory Coast's defens...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Over

Both Ivory Coast and Madagascar tend to play at a relatively high pace in international basketball. While Ivory Coast might have a defensive...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

World Cup games often have moderate totals, but without specific data, I lean slightly over due to potential offensive pace. However, confid...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Ivory Coast 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 65% Ivory Coast -11

An 11-point spread reflects a substantial but not insurmountable gap. Ivory Coast's superior talent, home court, and program depth should pr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% Ivory Coast

Given Ivory Coast's dominant performance in their previous match against Madagascar and their current form, they are expected to cover the -...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 72% Ivory Coast

The spread should favor Ivory Coast by double digits given the talent gap. Home environment amplifies this edge. No rest or travel factors a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Ivory Coast -12.5

Given the significant talent disparity between Ivory Coast and Madagascar, as observed in historical data through late 2023, Ivory Coast is...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Madagascar

While Ivory Coast is favored to win, an 8.5-point spread seems a bit high given that Madagascar is a capable international team and this is...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Ivory Coast -5.5

Assuming a standard home court advantage and Ivory Coast's historical strength, a spread of around 5.5 points seems reasonable. Ivory Coast...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First half winner

Consensus
Ivory Coast 5/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 70% Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast should establish early dominance through superior ball-handling, three-point shooting, and defensive pressure. Madagascar is unl...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast has consistently started strong in their recent games, often leading at halftime. Their aggressive playstyle and efficient scori...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 68% Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast is expected to establish early control with superior athleticism and home support. First-half margins in similar mismatches ofte...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 78% Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast is expected to assert its dominance early in the game, establishing a lead by halftime due to their superior talent and tactical...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast is the stronger team and may start fast, especially at home. Madagascar could keep it close early, but Ivory Coast likely leads...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First half totals 75.5

Consensus
Over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Over

The first half often sees teams starting with higher energy and executing their game plan more effectively before fatigue sets in. Given the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Ivory Coast

88
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Ivory Coast

85
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Ivory Coast

80
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Ivory Coast

78
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Ivory Coast

72
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Ivory Coast

65

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 114–73 · 61%
-2.1u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 121–97 · 56%
-30.1u
o4-mini
o4-mini 66–58 · 53%
-1.6u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 632–581 · 52%
-385.7u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 479–444 · 52%
-224.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 162–153 · 51%
-35.3u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 157–150 · 51%
-42.8u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 100–96 · 51%
+118.5u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 102–104 · 50%
+106.6u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 768–810 · 49%
-626.7u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 427–462 · 48%
-311.3u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 740–806 · 48%
-497.4u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 566–622 · 48%
-380.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 596–686 · 46%
-486.6u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 718–869 · 45%
-706.9u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 125–159 · 44%
-68.0u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0c349b97a9e1b0c3…
Kickoff
Sun, Jul 5 · 15:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9780,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-05T15:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 05 Jul 2026 15:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Madagascar",
        "home": "Ivory Coast"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →