Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
Basketball World Cup
Final 59–108
Iraq logo

IraqvsJordan

Jordan logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final59–108 Locked 28picks · 17 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus called it

Iraq 59–108 Jordan

4 of 7 AIs leaned Jordan — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Jordan 4/7
Correct calls
4/7
Final
59–108

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under L

World Cup basketball matches at this stage (likely group or early knockout) often feature deliberate pace, defensive intensity, and foul man...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under L

Recent Group C games show combined scores frequently in the 130–160 band and Iraq's offense has been below-average (around high 60s–low 70s)...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% under L

Both teams are playing without their main scorers and best players, making the match likely to be low-scoring. ([basketballsphere.com](https...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Asian national-team games trend toward moderate pace and 155-165 total points in recent cycles. Both sides rely on perimeter shooting whose...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Under 145.5 L

International basketball games frequently play at a slower pace with a focus on half-court sets and defense, leading to lower scoring output...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over W

Both Jordan and Iraq, while not top-tier offensive powerhouses, tend to play at a moderate pace in regional games. Without specific recent s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% over

Both teams have typically played at a moderate pace, but without specific data for 2026, slight lean to over based on historical averages. T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Jordan 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Jordan W

Jordan has been the stronger regional basketball program historically, with deeper roster depth and more consistent international tournament...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 85% Jordan W

Jordan enter the window 3-0 and have been dominant offensively (including a big win over Syria and a 73-60 win over Iran), while Iraq are 0-...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 90% Jordan W

Jordan has a strong head-to-head record against Iraq, winning 5 out of 6 encounters. Iraq has lost all six of their recent matches, while Jo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Iraq L

Iraq holds a modest historical edge over Jordan in FIBA Asia encounters from training data through 2025. Home-court advantage in a neutral-v...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 68% Away Win L

Jordan historically boasts a more robust basketball program with greater international experience and success compared to Iraq. Their talent...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Jordan W

Jordan has a slightly more established presence and recent competitive history in Asian basketball tournaments compared to Iraq. While head-...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Iraq L

Based on training data through 2025, Iraq has a slight home-court advantage in regional matchups, but Jordan has historically been competiti...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Iraq 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 64% Jordan -5 W

Jordan's superior roster depth and international experience should manifest as a mid-single-digit advantage. Iraq's home court provides mode...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% Jordan -10.5 W

Jordan's margin of victory in their wins has been comfortable (including a rout of Syria and a clear win over Iran) while Iraq have been out...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Jordan W

Given Jordan's strong head-to-head record and Iraq's recent form, Jordan is likely to cover the -1 point spread. ([aiscore.com](https://www....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Iraq

Iraq typically covers small spreads at home against regional peers. Jordan struggles on the road in tournament settings. No lineups or injur...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Jordan -8.5 W

Jordan's superior individual talent and overall team chemistry, based on historical performance, should allow them to establish a comfortabl...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Jordan W

Given the slight perceived advantage for Jordan in head-to-head matchups and overall program consistency, they are favored to cover a modest...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Iraq

Iraq's home-court advantage likely translates to a narrow spread cover. However, without current lines or data, this is a tentative pick bas...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First half winner

Consensus
Jordan 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 82

First halves in international basketball are typically defensive-minded and lower-tempo, especially early in tournaments when teams feel eac...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 72% Jordan

Jordan tends to start fast in the qualifiers (big early leads vs Syria and effective half-first offense against Iran) while Iraq have been s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% Jordan

Jordan's strong head-to-head record and Iraq's recent form suggest they will lead at halftime. ([aiscore.com](https://www.aiscore.com/en/hea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 60% Iraq

Early-game execution favors the home side in low-information national-team matchups. First-half totals tend to mirror full-game home bias. P...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Jordan

In close matchups, the first half often reflects the general perceived strength of the teams. Jordan's marginal advantage is expected to car...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% Iraq

First-half outcomes are often volatile, but Iraq may have a slight edge from home energy early. Without solid data, the lean is minimal.

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First half h2h

Consensus
Away Lead 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Away Lead

Jordan's anticipated stronger start, driven by better offensive execution and defensive schemes, should see them leading at the halftime bre...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Jordan

90
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Jordan

85
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Jordan

68
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Away Win

68
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Iraq

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Jordan

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Iraq

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1083–1112 · 49%
-803.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 028e136199eca3b0…
Kickoff
Mon, Jun 29 · 16:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9262,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-29T16:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 29 Jun 2026 16:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Jordan",
        "home": "Iraq"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →