Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
Basketball World Cup
Upcoming · in 25h 32m
Iraq logo

IraqvsJordan

Jordan logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 24picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Featured · open arena

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Jordan 5/6
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Jordan

Jordan has historically been the stronger regional basketball program in West Asia, with more consistent FIBA World Cup qualification histor...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 85% Jordan

FIBA's official game page shows Jordan clearly superior in this qualifying window (3–0 in group play) and a consistent head‑to‑head advantag...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Iraq

Jordan has a strong record in the FIBA World Cup Qualifiers, leading Group C with three consecutive victories, including decisive wins over...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Jordan

Jordan maintains a stronger recent Asian basketball pedigree and superior athletic depth compared to Iraq. Home-court edge for Iraq narrows...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Jordan

Jordan has consistently performed at a higher level in international basketball compared to Iraq based on historical data. Their roster dept...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Jordan

Jordan has historically been stronger in Asian basketball, with better recent performances at the Asian Cup and World Cup qualifiers. Iraq h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 160.5

Both Iraq and Jordan are mid-tier FIBA teams with moderate pace and offensive ratings, typically averaging 70–85 points per game internation...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% Over

Combined qualifier averages (Jordan 82.3 + Iraq 69.7 = ~152 PTS/game) sit right at a 152 line; Jordan's offense and Iraq's ability to post ~...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% over

Jordan's recent matches have seen high-scoring games, including a 100-48 victory over Syria. Iraq's games have also been relatively high-sco...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Both teams play at moderate-to-high pace in FIBA competition, which tends to elevate scoring totals. Limited bench depth on both sides incre...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over

Based on historical performance, Jordan's offense is generally more potent than Iraq's defense, and they tend to push the pace. While defens...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 156.5

Jordan averages around 80 points per game in recent outings, while Iraq scores about 75. The combined average suggests a total near 155, but...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Jordan 2/6
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Jordan -5.5

Jordan's superior roster depth and international tournament experience justify a modest favorite position. A 5.5-point spread reflects the r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% Jordan -12.5

Jordan's qualifier performance and head‑to‑head dominance suggest they can produce a double‑digit win; FIBA stats show a ~12.6 PPG team diff...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% Iraq

Given Jordan's superior form and standings, they are likely to cover a -1 point spread against Iraq. The disparity in performance suggests a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Jordan

Jordan's superior talent and experience should allow them to cover a modest spread on the road. Iraq's home advantage is real but historical...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Jordan

Jordan has historically demonstrated superior talent and results against Iraq in international basketball. They are expected to win by a sig...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Jordan -7.5

Jordan's roster features more experienced players and better depth, which should allow them to pull away in the second half. Iraq struggles...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First half winner

Consensus
Jordan 4/5
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 64% Jordan

Jordan's early-game discipline and higher-quality guard play should translate to stronger opening-half execution. Iraq may start slowly due...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Iraq

Jordan's strong start in recent games, including a decisive first half against Syria, indicates they are likely to lead at halftime against...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Jordan

Jordan typically starts stronger with more experienced perimeter players, gaining early leads in FIBA games. Iraq often needs time to settle...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Jordan

Given Jordan's overall stronger team, they are expected to establish a lead early in the game. Their ability to start strong and maintain in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Jordan

Jordan tends to start strong, establishing an early lead through aggressive defense and transition offense. Iraq may keep it close early, bu...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First half ml

Consensus
Jordan 1H lead 1/1
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 72% Jordan 1H lead

Jordan's superior offense and defensive rotations in the qualifiers make them likely to establish control early; FIBA statistics and recent...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Not run yet

Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Unlock →
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Unlock →
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Unlock →
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Unlock →
GPT-5 GPT-5 Unlock →
o4-mini o4-mini Unlock →
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Unlock →
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Unlock →
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Unlock →

Refresh the read

Team news

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 129ca031f86c833a…
Kickoff
Mon, Jun 29 · 16:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7648,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-29T16:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 29 Jun 2026 16:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Jordan",
        "home": "Iraq"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →