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Basketball World Cup
Final 70–78
Egypt logo

EgyptvsMali

Mali logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final70–78 Locked 28picks · 15 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Egypt 70–78 Mali

5 of 7 AIs leaned Egypt — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Egypt 5/7
Correct calls
2/7
Final
70–78

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Egypt 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Egypt L

Egypt is the stronger basketball program historically and has qualified for multiple World Cups with more developed depth and coaching infra...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Egypt L

Mali beat Egypt 86-77 on Feb 26, 2026, so Mali are proven to handle Egypt, but this game is in Egypt (home advantage) and Egypt's results in...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Mali W

Mali has demonstrated strong form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, including a recent victory over Egypt. Egypt has struggled, winning on...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Egypt L

Egypt holds a historical edge in FIBA AfroBasket and World Cup qualifiers against Mali. Home-court advantage in a neutral-venue World Cup se...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 75% Egypt L

Egypt has historically been one of the stronger basketball nations in Africa, with a more consistent track record in major tournaments like...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Mali W

Mali is a stronger team in international basketball, known for their athleticism and tactical approach. Egypt, while having home-court poten...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Egypt L

Egypt has historically been stronger in African basketball, with more depth and experience in World Cup competitions. Mali has less establis...

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Spread

Consensus
Egypt -5.5 1/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Egypt -5 L

Egypt's superior roster depth and international tournament experience warrant a modest spread advantage. A 5-point line reflects Egypt's edg...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% home_cover

Given Egypt's home advantage and desire to overturn the Feb loss, a small home spread (Egypt -3.5) is plausible to be covered but the margin...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Mali -1 W

Given Mali's superior recent form and their victory over Egypt in the last encounter, they are likely to cover a -1 point spread.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Egypt

Egypt's size advantage inside typically keeps games within single digits when they are favored. Mali struggles to close out against structur...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Egypt -7.5 L

Egypt's superior historical pedigree and consistent performance against other African teams suggest they have the quality to not just win, b...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Mali

Given Mali's superior talent and recent form compared to Egypt, they are favored to cover any reasonable spread. Mali's ability to control t...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Egypt -5.5 L

Egypt's depth and experience should allow them to cover a modest spread against a weaker Mali side. Home court advantage further solidifies...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 155 W

World Cup basketball games at this stage (2026) typically feature strong defensive intensity and slower pace as teams prioritize structure a...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% over L

Both teams have produced mid-to-high 70s/low-80s scores in the qualifying window and Mali's Feb win was 86-77; qualifiers in this group have...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have shown a tendency to engage in high-scoring games, with recent matches averaging over 150 points. This suggests the total poi...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Both teams play at moderate-to-high pace in FIBA events. Egypt's perimeter shooting creates variance that pushes games over typical totals....

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Under 155.5 W

International basketball games, particularly in competitive World Cup stages involving African teams, often feature strong defensive efforts...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both Mali and Egypt tend to play at a moderate to high pace in FIBA competitions. Mali's offensive capabilities, particularly their transiti...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 145.5

Both teams tend to play at a moderate pace, but Egypt's offense and Mali's potential defensive lapses could push the score above typical tot...

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First half winner

Consensus
Egypt 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 61% Egypt

Egypt's first-half advantage mirrors their overall edge, as tactical setup and early rhythm favor the more experienced squad. World Cup firs...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Mali

Mali has shown strong starts in recent games, often leading at halftime. This trend suggests they are likely to lead at halftime in the upco...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 60% Egypt

Egypt tends to start stronger with veteran leadership and better early execution. Mali often needs time to adjust defensively. Training data...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Egypt

As the stronger team with more experience, Egypt is expected to establish an early lead and control the pace of the game from the outset. Th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Mali

Mali has shown the ability to start games strong and establish an early lead, leveraging their athleticism and tactical discipline. They are...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Egypt

Egypt typically starts games strong due to better preparation and tactical discipline. Mali may struggle to keep up early, allowing Egypt to...

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First half h2h

Consensus
Draw 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 38% Draw

Qualifying rematches between evenly matched African teams often feature tight first halves as teams feel each other out; the Feb result and...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Egypt

75
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Egypt

75
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Egypt

62
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Egypt

62
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Egypt

60
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Mali

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Mali

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1083–1112 · 49%
-803.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 7f29128231071f27…
Kickoff
Thu, Jul 2 · 15:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9270,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-02T15:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 02 Jul 2026 15:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Mali",
        "home": "Egypt"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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