The market rates Max Holloway higher than the AI consensus does — no edge on this pick.

Moneyline (1X2) — best available price, with the market's implied probability.

AI edge = the model consensus' probability minus the market's implied probability on the same outcome. Positive edge means the AIs rate it more likely than the book.

System instruction

You are a sports forecasting model. You are given identical structured facts about one match. Make an honest, calibrated prediction. You may not browse; use only the facts provided. Do not hedge — commit to one pick and a probability.

User brief (JSON) — sent byte-for-byte to every model

{
  "match": {
    "home": "Conor McGregor",
    "away": "Max Holloway",
    "sport": "mma",
    "league": "UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2",
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-07-12T01:00:00.000Z",
    "venue": "T-Mobile Arena"
  },
  "market": {
    "type": "moneyline",
    "options": [
      "home",
      "draw",
      "away"
    ]
  },
  "bookmaker_odds": {
    "home": "3.69",
    "draw": "33",
    "away": "1.37"
  },
  "instructions": "Return your pick, a 0–100 confidence, a probability for each outcome, and one paragraph of reasoning."
}