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Basketball WNBA
Awaiting result · 1055h 51m ago
CS

Connecticut SunvsWashington Mystics

WM
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AI predictions

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16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Connecticut Sun 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Connecticut Sun

Connecticut Sun enters as the home team with a slight edge in recent competitive standing within the WNBA. The Mystics have been inconsisten...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Washington Mystics

The Washington Mystics have a 5-7 record, while the Connecticut Sun are on a five-game losing streak with a 2-13 record. The Mystics' superi...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Connecticut Sun

Training data through 2024 shows Connecticut Sun consistently stronger than Washington Mystics in regular season matchups. Sun hold home adv...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Connecticut Sun

Based on historical WNBA data through my last training update (early 2025), the Connecticut Sun are consistently one of the league's top tea...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Connecticut Sun

Based on training data, the Connecticut Sun generally hold a historical advantage over the Washington Mystics. While specific recent form is...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Connecticut Sun

Connecticut Sun have been a top team in recent seasons with strong defense and home court advantage. Washington Mystics are rebuilding and l...

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2 sources cited

Over / Under

Consensus
over 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Over 165.5

WNBA games in mid-June typically average 160–170 total points depending on both team tempos and defensive intensity. Connecticut and Washing...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% under

Both teams have struggled offensively this season, with the Sun averaging 75.6 points per game and the Mystics averaging 83.4 points per gam...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

WNBA games in 2024 trended slightly over league average totals especially in early summer schedule. Both teams tend to play at moderate pace...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Under 155.5

The Connecticut Sun's defensive identity historically leads to lower-scoring games, as they grind out possessions and limit opponent's point...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

Without live data, I am inferring based on typical WNBA scoring trends and the general offensive capabilities of these teams from my trainin...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% under 155.5

Sun play at a slower pace and emphasize defense. Mystics have offensive struggles in recent years. Combined, expect a total in the low 150s.

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2 sources cited

Spread

Consensus
Connecticut Sun 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Connecticut Sun -4.5

A 4.5-point home spread for Connecticut reflects modest but realistic home-court edge. Connecticut's deeper roster and recent competitive fo...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Washington Mystics

The Mystics' superior record and the Sun's ongoing losing streak make the Mystics likely to cover a -1 point spread.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Connecticut Sun

Historical spreads favored Sun by 3-6 points against Mystics. Home court plus roster edge supports a modest spread lean even without current...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Connecticut Sun -7.5

The Connecticut Sun have a strong track record of not just winning, but also covering spreads, especially at home against mid-tier teams. Th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 62% Connecticut Sun

Given my prediction for a Connecticut Sun win and their general strength, I expect them to cover a moderate spread. My training data indicat...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Connecticut Sun -6.5

Sun have consistently beaten weaker teams by double digits. Mystics lack star power and offensive consistency. Home court advantage adds to...

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2 sources cited

First half winner

Consensus
Connecticut Sun 4/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Connecticut Sun

Connecticut's home-court intensity typically manifests in strong first-half execution. Washington often starts slower on the road. A Connect...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Washington Mystics

The Mystics' superior record and the Sun's ongoing losing streak suggest the Mystics are likely to lead at halftime.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% Connecticut Sun

Sun typically start stronger at home per historical first-half splits. Mystics often slow starters in away games. All projections drawn from...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Connecticut Sun

The Connecticut Sun often start games strong, especially at home. I predict they will lead at halftime based on their historical tendency to...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Connecticut Sun

Sun typically start strong with focus on defensive stops. Mystics often fall behind early. Expect Sun to lead at half by 5-8 points.

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2 sources cited

H2h first half

Consensus
Connecticut Sun 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 68% Connecticut Sun

The Sun are known for their strong starts, particularly in home games, establishing defensive dominance early. They often take an initial le...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Washington Mystics

75
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Connecticut Sun

70
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Connecticut Sun

65
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Connecticut Sun

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Connecticut Sun

62
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Connecticut Sun

58

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: e4ccf753005cab0f…
Kickoff
Wed, Jun 17 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5130,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "WNBA",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-17T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 17 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Washington Mystics",
        "home": "Connecticut Sun"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T18:17:31+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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