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Basketball World Cup
Final 79–81
Colombia logo

ColombiavsChile

Chile logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final79–81 Locked 28picks · 14 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus missed

Colombia 79–81 Chile

4 of 7 AIs leaned Colombia — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Colombia 4/7
Correct calls
3/7
Final
79–81

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Colombia 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Colombia L

Colombia has historically been the stronger basketball nation in South America with more consistent competitive depth and better FIBA rankin...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% Colombia L

Colombia enters with its expected core (Jaime Echenique, Braian Angola and other main pieces listed in FIBA's roster tracker) while FIBA pre...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Chile W

Colombia has a strong home-court advantage and a favorable head-to-head record, winning 6 out of the last 10 encounters against Chile. Addit...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Colombia L

Colombia holds a modest historical edge over Chile in FIBA competition from training data through 2023. Home-court advantage in a World Cup...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Colombia L

Based on general historical performance of these national teams in basketball, Colombia often has a slight edge over Chile. This prediction...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Chile W

Chile has a historical edge over Colombia in their head-to-head matchups, particularly in competitive tournaments. While Colombia has home a...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Chile W

Chile has shown slightly better recent form in FIBA Americas competition, including a notable win over Brazil in 2025. Colombia lacks consis...

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1 source cited

Spread

Consensus
Colombia 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Colombia -4.5 L

Colombia's roster depth and FIBA ranking advantage suggest a modest home-court edge of 3–5 points. Colombia should win outright in most scen...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% home_cover

Given Colombia's listed roster (interior size with Echenique) and Chile's reported absence of Manny Suárez, plus Colombia's prior 8-point ro...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Colombia L

Given Colombia's home-court advantage and recent form, they are likely to cover a -1 point spread against Chile. Their recent victories and...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Colombia

Home status gives Colombia the projected edge in a matchup with limited recent separation. Chile has shown vulnerability on the road against...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Colombia -5.5 L

Colombia is generally considered the slightly stronger basketball program historically when compared to Chile. While a -5.5 spread implies a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Chile

Given Chile's historical advantage and potential to upset, they are predicted to cover a small spread, even if Colombia is considered the fa...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Chile +1.5 W

Spread is nearly a pick'em, reflecting the evenly matched contest. Chile's slight edge in recent form and experience makes the points with C...

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1 source cited

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 164.5

World Cup basketball games at the mid-tier level (Colombia vs Chile) typically feature deliberate, defensive-minded play with lower pace tha...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% over W

Recent meetings and qualifier results show volatility but a clear capacity for mid-to-high totals (Colombia 86 in the Feb meeting; Brazil pu...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have shown a tendency to engage in high-scoring games, with recent matches featuring scores above 150 points. This trend suggests...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Both sides tend toward moderate pace in international play. Colombia's offense creates enough transition opportunities to push games above t...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 145.5 L

Matches between developing basketball nations like Colombia and Chile often feature lower scoring due to less polished offensive execution a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both Chile and Colombia tend to play at a high tempo, especially in tournament play where they aim to secure early advantages. Their offensi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 150.5

Both teams have moderate-paced offenses but lack elite defensive personnel. Friendly exhibition settings often see higher scoring. The total...

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1 source cited

First half winner

Consensus
Colombia 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 57% Colombia

First-half performance in World Cup basketball often mirrors overall team quality because fatigue and adjustment are minimal early. Colombia...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Colombia

Colombia's interior presence and home crowd typically produces strong starts in qualifiers; Chile's missing center should blunt their first-...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Colombia

Colombia's strong start in recent games, coupled with their home-court advantage, suggests they will lead at halftime against Chile. Their r...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Colombia

Colombia typically establishes early rhythm at home and carries modest first-half leads in past cycles. Chile has been slower starters on th...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Chile

Chile has a tendency to start matches strong, aiming to establish an early lead and disrupt the opponent's rhythm. This aggressive start oft...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Away (Chile)

Chile tends to start games with strong defensive pressure, leading to early leads. Colombia may need time to adjust. Slight edge to Chile in...

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1 source cited

First half h2h

Consensus
Colombia 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Colombia

Aligning with the full-game prediction, Colombia is expected to establish an early lead due to a slightly stronger overall team. Favored tea...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Colombia

65
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Chile

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Colombia

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Colombia

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Colombia

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Chile

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Chile

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1107–1136 · 49%
-827.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 822837abfc22bb85…
Kickoff
Fri, Jul 3 · 23:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9509,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 04 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chile",
        "home": "Colombia"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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