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Basketball Women's National Basketball Association · Wintrust Arena
Upcoming · in 87h 41m
CS

Chicago SkyvsLos Angeles Sparks

LA
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Chicago Sky 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Chicago Sky

Chicago Sky plays at home (Wintrust Arena) with equal rest (36 days) against LA Sparks. Both teams have played only one match in the referen...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Los Angeles Sparks

Los Angeles is the healthier, more productive team in the frontcourt (Ogwumike/Hamby providing consistent scoring & rebound advantage) and h...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Chicago Sky

The Chicago Sky have a strong home-court advantage at Wintrust Arena, and their recent form suggests they are likely to secure a win against...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Chicago Sky

Training data through 2025-09 shows Chicago Sky competitive at home despite recent loss while Sparks remain inconsistent on road. Both sides...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Chicago Sky

Based on training data up to my last update, and general WNBA knowledge for a future event, Chicago Sky, as the home team, typically receive...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Los Angeles Sparks

The Los Angeles Sparks have a slight edge due to their recent win against the Sky and a slightly better overall season record. While the Sky...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Los Angeles Sparks

Training knowledge through 2025 season shows Sparks with slight edge. Sparks won opening game while Sky lost, but both teams have equal rest...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Over 180.5

Chicago's recent game totaled 220 points (106+114); LA's totaled 171 (88+83). WNBA pace typically ranges 85–95 possessions per team per game...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over

Both teams rank among the league leaders in pace (Sparks ~81.4, Sky ~80.9 possessions/game) and combine for middling defenses (Sparks partic...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have potent offenses, and the game is expected to be high-scoring, making the over 2.5 total points a reasonable prediction.

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% over

Training data through 2025-09 indicates both teams play at above-average pace leading to elevated totals. Recent form shows high-scoring out...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over

Given the future date, predictions rely on general WNBA trends and the brief's preliminary season data. Chicago's opening game saw a combine...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

Both teams have demonstrated offensive capabilities in recent games, with average scores well over 80 points. The previous game between thes...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 157.5

Based on historical scoring patterns, both teams average high totals. Sky scored 106 in loss, Sparks 88 in win. Total likely to exceed typic...

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Spread

Consensus
Chicago Sky 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Chicago Sky -4.5

Chicago's home-court edge combined with LA's lower recent offensive output (88 points) and equal rest suggests a modest home advantage. Chic...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Los Angeles Sparks

Given Chicago's weaker record and the absence of Skylar Diggins, a small home favorite line (~CHI -1 to -3) would lean Sparks to cover as ro...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Chicago Sky

The Chicago Sky are favored to win by at least 1 point, given their home advantage and recent performance.

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Chicago Sky

Training data through 2025-09 gives slight home edge to Chicago Sky against a Sparks side that struggles away. Minimal rest differential kee...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Chicago Sky -3.5

This prediction for a future event is based on general WNBA dynamics and the available preliminary data. Factoring in the typical home-court...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Los Angeles Sparks

The Los Angeles Sparks are favored slightly due to their better recent form and ability to secure close wins. While the Sky won their last h...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Los Angeles Sparks -1.5

Sparks are slight favorites based on recent form. Spread likely around 1-2 points. Small edge to Sparks covering given win momentum.

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First half winner

Consensus
Chicago Sky 3/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Chicago Sky

First-half outcomes correlate with full-game outcomes but with higher variance due to smaller sample and rotation effects. Chicago's home co...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Los Angeles Sparks

Sparks are likely to start aggressively at pace and get early scoring from Ogwumike/Hamby against a Sky backcourt missing Skylar Diggins, gi...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago Sky

The Chicago Sky are expected to lead at halftime, leveraging their home-court advantage and strong start to the game.

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Chicago Sky

Training data through 2025-09 shows Chicago Sky stronger starters at home in opening halves. Long rest favors prepared lineups from both but...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Los Angeles Sparks

Sparks may start strong given early season form. Sky's defense allowed 114 points, suggesting potential early deficit. Half line likely clos...

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First half h2h

Consensus
Los Angeles Sparks 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Los Angeles Sparks

The Sparks have shown a tendency to start games strong, often building an early lead. Their recent performances indicate they can maintain t...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

First half totals 87.5

Consensus
Over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over

For this future game, general WNBA trends suggest a fast pace early on, particularly if a team like the Sky showed high offensive output in...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Chicago Sky

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Chicago Sky

62
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Los Angeles Sparks

60
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Los Angeles Sparks

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Los Angeles Sparks

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Chicago Sky

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Chicago Sky

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1043–787 · 57%
-590.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 678–576 · 54%
-356.7u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1116–1095 · 50%
-909.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 735–738 · 50%
-496.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1012–1021 · 50%
-712.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 864–915 · 49%
-713.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1004–1080 · 48%
-917.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 4f75425ae194b528…
Kickoff
Fri, Jul 17 · 23:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 12810,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": "Wintrust Arena",
        "league": "Women's National Basketball Association",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-17T23:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 17 Jul 2026 23:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Los Angeles Sparks",
        "home": "Chicago Sky"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "W",
            "record": "1W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 88,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 83
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "L",
            "record": "0W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 106,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 114
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 36,
            "home": 36
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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