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Basketball Women's National Basketball Association · Wintrust Arena
Upcoming · in 88h 05m
CS

Chicago SkyvsConnecticut Sun

CS
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Chicago Sky 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Chicago Sky

Chicago has home-court advantage at Wintrust Arena and adequate rest (49 days). Connecticut arrives in poor form (0-2 in the reference windo...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Chicago Sky

Chicago enters as the marginally stronger team at home (Wintrust) with a deeper rotation and slightly better recent form than a struggling C...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Connecticut Sun

The Connecticut Sun have a slightly better record and have shown resilience in recent games, suggesting a marginal advantage over the Chicag...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Chicago Sky

Chicago Sky at home receive a modest venue edge in a matchup with limited recent data available. Training knowledge through 2023 shows Conne...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Connecticut Sun

Predictions are based solely on my training data up to my last knowledge cut-off, as current team information for July 2026 is unavailable....

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Connecticut Sun

The Connecticut Sun have a slightly better historical record and are in better recent form, despite both teams having limited games played....

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Chicago Sky

Chicago Sky have home-court advantage at Wintrust Arena and both teams have had extended rest, but the Sky's recent form includes a close lo...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Over

Connecticut's reference data shows 177 points in 2 matches (88.5 PPG average), suggesting an offensive-minded pace. Chicago's 106 points in...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under

Recent Connecticut games show high variance — they scored 96 in one game but were held to 63 in another and conceded 123; Chicago's offensiv...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown variability in scoring, but recent games indicate a tendency towards higher-scoring outcomes, making the over a more l...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Pace tendencies from historical WNBA data suggest a moderate total. Training knowledge through 2023 indicates both teams average in the 80s...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under

Given the Connecticut Sun's historical defensive proficiency, games they are involved in often trend towards lower scores. While Chicago has...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

The combined average points scored and conceded by both teams in their limited recent matches suggest a potential for a higher scoring game....

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 160.5

Both teams have scored relatively well in recent games, with the Sun averaging 88.5 points and Sky 106 in their last game. With long rest, o...

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Spread

Consensus
Connecticut Sun 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Chicago Sky -5.5

Chicago's home court and Connecticut's 0-2 form in the reference data suggest a modest advantage for the Sky. However, the spread of 5.5 is...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% home_cover

Projecting Chicago as ~4-point favorites fits public perception: they are better at home and Connecticut's recent defensive lapses alongside...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Connecticut Sun

The Sun's recent form and slight edge in overall performance suggest they are likely to cover the -1 spread against the Sky.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Chicago Sky

Home-court advantage in WNBA is smaller than NBA but still present. Training knowledge through 2023 shows Chicago Sky competitive at Wintrus...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Connecticut Sun +2.5

Based on historical performance, the Connecticut Sun are often a formidable opponent, capable of winning outright or keeping games very clos...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Connecticut Sun

Given the slight edge in form and historical performance of the Connecticut Sun, they are favored to cover a moderate spread. The Chicago Sk...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Chicago Sky -2.5

Spread is close, reflecting the competitive matchup. Chicago's home court may give them a slight advantage, but without current roster info,...

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First half winner

Consensus
Chicago Sky 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Over 76.5

First-half totals in WNBA typically run 50–55% of full-game totals due to slower first-quarter pace and conservative early-game play. At 76....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Chicago Sky

Chicago is more likely to start stronger at home and dictate pace early; Connecticut's recent inconsistencies often produce slow starts or d...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Connecticut Sun

The Sun have demonstrated a tendency to start games strong, which may give them an advantage in the first half against the Sky.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Chicago Sky

First-half trends mirror full-game home lean with slightly less variance. Training knowledge through 2023 shows Sky starting strong at home...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Connecticut Sun

Historically, the Connecticut Sun are known for their strong defensive starts and disciplined play. They often establish control early in ga...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Chicago Sky

Home teams often start strong, and Chicago's recent performance suggests they can keep it close early. The Sun have been inconsistent in fir...

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First half h2h

Consensus
Connecticut Sun 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Connecticut Sun

The Connecticut Sun have shown a slightly stronger start to games in their limited sample size. Their ability to maintain a lead or stay com...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Chicago Sky

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Chicago Sky

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Connecticut Sun

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Connecticut Sun

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Chicago Sky

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Chicago Sky

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Connecticut Sun

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1054–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–583 · 54%
-362.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1127–1107 · 50%
-921.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 739–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1030–1054 · 49%
-745.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 875–925 · 49%
-723.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1016–1089 · 48%
-926.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: ef705e6cab3f174c…
Kickoff
Fri, Jul 31 · 00:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 17798,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": "Wintrust Arena",
        "league": "Women's National Basketball Association",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Connecticut Sun",
        "home": "Chicago Sky"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LL",
            "record": "0W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 177,
            "matches": 2,
            "conceded": 191
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "L",
            "record": "0W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 106,
            "matches": 1,
            "conceded": 114
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 47,
            "home": 49
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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