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Basketball World Cup
Final 86–76
Cameroon logo

CameroonvsLibya

Libya logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final86–76 Locked 24picks · 13 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Cameroon 86–76 Libya

All 6 AIs backed Cameroon — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Cameroon 6/6
Correct calls
6/6
Final
86–76

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First half winner

Consensus
Cameroon 5/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 65% Cameroon

First-half advantage typically mirrors overall game advantage in basketball; Cameroon's stronger roster depth and regional standing should m...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Cameroon

Cameroon is expected to start strong in the first half, leveraging their home-court advantage and recent form. ([m.aiscore.com](https://m.ai...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 71% Cameroon

Cameroon should establish early control with superior size and athleticism, leading at halftime. Training data through 2025-09 shows favorit...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 70% Cameroon

Cameroon is expected to come out strong and establish their dominance early. Their superior talent and offensive execution should allow them...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Cameroon

Cameroon is likely to start strong with home energy and superior execution. Libya may take time to adjust, and Cameroon's defensive pressure...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under W

African basketball at this competitive tier typically features lower pace and offensive rating than NBA or EuroLeague benchmarks. Both Camer...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% over W

Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring games, with recent matches exceeding 150 points. ([m.aiscore.com](https://m.aiscore.com/he...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Cameroon tends to push tempo while Libya lacks elite perimeter defense, opening the game to higher possessions. Training data through 2025-0...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 145.5 W

While international basketball can sometimes feature lower-scoring games due to defensive focus, a stronger Cameroon might be able to dictat...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Cameroon's offensive capabilities are expected to be dominant in this matchup. While Libya's pace is unknown, Cameroon's typical style of pl...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% under 150.5

Both teams have moderate offensive ratings and may struggle with pace in a high-stakes World Cup game. Defensive intensity is expected, and...

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Spread

Consensus
Cameroon 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 64% Cameroon -6 W

Cameroon's historical edge in regional basketball standing, plus home-court advantage, suggests a margin in the 4–8 point range is justified...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% Cameroon W

Given Cameroon's recent form and home advantage, they are likely to cover a -1 point spread against Libya. ([m.aiscore.com](https://m.aiscor...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 72% Cameroon

Cameroon holds a clear talent and depth advantage that should translate into a double-digit home win. Training data through 2025-09 shows si...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Cameroon -9.5 W

Given Cameroon's historical advantage in talent and experience over Libya in international basketball, they are likely to win this match by...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Cameroon

Given Cameroon's superior skill level and expected dominance, they are likely to cover any reasonable spread. Libya may struggle to keep pac...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Cameroon -8.5 W

Cameroon's talent advantage combined with home court should cover a modest spread. Libya lacks depth and firepower to keep it close. Confide...

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First half h2h

Consensus
Cameroon 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Cameroon

A more talented and prepared team like Cameroon is expected to assert control from the start of the game, aiming to build an early lead. Lib...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Match winner

Consensus
Cameroon 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Cameroon W

Cameroon has a stronger basketball infrastructure and regional standing within African basketball, historically ranking higher in FIBA ratin...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Cameroon W

Cameroon has a strong home-court advantage and has won their last two matches, while Libya has lost their last six games, including a recent...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 78% Cameroon W

Cameroon has historically fielded stronger FIBA Africa rosters than Libya and should win at home in a World Cup qualifier. Training data thr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 75% Cameroon W

Based on historical performance and overall basketball program strength, Cameroon is generally considered a stronger team than Libya in inte...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 75% Cameroon W

Cameroon is a significantly stronger basketball nation than Libya, with a history of participating in major international tournaments. Based...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Cameroon W

Cameroon is the stronger African basketball nation with better overall talent and depth compared to Libya. Playing at home gives them an add...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Cameroon

85
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Cameroon

78
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Cameroon

75
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Cameroon

75
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Cameroon

70
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Cameroon

68

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1097–1132 · 49%
-823.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: d3cf21fe9777eb03…
Kickoff
Sat, Jul 4 · 17:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9580,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 04 Jul 2026 17:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Libya",
        "home": "Cameroon"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 3 sources

    3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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