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Basketball World Cup
Upcoming · in 88h 02m
Bahamas logo

BahamasvsJamaica

Jamaica logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 24picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Consensus split

How the lineup voted · Match winner

6 picks
  • Bahamas 83% 5/6
  • Jamaica 17% 1/6

Model confidence

Each model's confidence in its pick (%)

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Bahamas 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Bahamas

Bahamas has historically been the stronger Caribbean basketball program with more consistent FIBA World Cup qualification success and deeper...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Bahamas

Jamaica has shown strong performances in recent qualifiers, including a notable win against Puerto Rico. The home-court advantage and the su...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 72% Bahamas

Bahamas possesses superior individual talent and depth in FIBA competition. Jamaica lacks consistent high-level roster options. Home-court a...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 82% Bahamas

Based on historical performance and current talent trends (up to my last training data update through 2025-09), Bahamas has a significantly...

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3 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Jamaica

Based on training data, Jamaica has historically shown a stronger basketball pedigree and more consistent performance in international compe...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 72% Bahamas

Bahamas has a stronger basketball program, with multiple players having NCAA or professional experience, while Jamaica's squad is less estab...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 165

Caribbean basketball typically features deliberate pace, moderate three-point volume, and lower offensive efficiency than NBA-style play. Bo...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have demonstrated offensive capabilities in recent matches, with high-scoring games observed. The previous encounter saw a total...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% over

Both teams tend to play at a moderate pace with limited defensive structure. Offensive ratings favor higher scoring outputs in international...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over

Given the potential offensive firepower of the Bahamas, especially if their NBA players are fully engaged, they are capable of high scoring....

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3 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

International basketball games can sometimes be high-scoring due to varied team styles and offensive focus. Without specific scoring tendenc...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both teams have offenses that can score in transition, and the pace in FIBA Americas qualifiers often exceeds league averages. Bahamas tends...

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Spread

Consensus
Bahamas 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Bahamas -6

Bahamas' historical edge in international competition, home-court advantage, and roster consistency suggest they should win by a mid-single-...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Bahamas

Jamaica's home advantage and recent strong performances make them likely to cover a -1 point spread. The Bahamas' resilience is noted, but t...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 65% Bahamas

Bahamas is the stronger side overall and should cover a modest spread at home. Jamaica has shown inconsistency against stronger competition....

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Bahamas -9.5

The Bahamas is expected to be a strong favorite against Jamaica, indicating a significant point differential. Their superior talent and rece...

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3 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Jamaica

Given Jamaica is the slight favorite in the head-to-head, they are also more likely to cover a small spread. This pick assumes a close game...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Bahamas -4.5

Bahamas is expected to win comfortably, and a spread of -4.5 reflects home-court advantage and roster superiority. Jamaica may keep it close...

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First half winner

Consensus
Bahamas 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Bahamas

Bahamas' roster depth and international experience should manifest early in a World Cup group match, giving them a slight first-half advanta...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Bahamas

Jamaica's home-court advantage and the support of local fans are expected to provide an early boost, potentially leading them to win the fir...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 61% Bahamas

Bahamas typically establishes early leads through superior athleticism. First-half pace favors the home team in FIBA settings. Training data...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 78% Bahamas

Stronger teams in international basketball often establish early leads, especially when facing less dominant opposition. Bahamas' talent adv...

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3 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Jamaica

In a matchup where Jamaica is favored, they are likely to start with a slight advantage. This prediction assumes Jamaica will lead or be tie...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 68% Bahamas

Bahamas typically starts strong, using early energy and crowd support to build a lead. Jamaica may take time to adjust, giving Bahamas a fir...

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Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 96–72 · 57%
-14.6u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 101–89 · 53%
-31.9u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 552–533 · 51%
-384.4u
o4-mini
o4-mini 53–52 · 50%
-17.6u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 402–405 · 50%
-207.1u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 142–144 · 50%
-45.3u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 142–147 · 49%
-42.1u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 692–758 · 48%
-594.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 685–757 · 48%
-457.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 407–456 · 47%
-316.4u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 522–591 · 47%
-364.3u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 84–96 · 47%
-35.7u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 77–92 · 46%
-36.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 532–640 · 45%
-452.6u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 672–829 · 45%
-671.1u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 108–151 · 42%
-78.6u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0c0e25d30a5dde03…
Kickoff
Sat, Jul 4 · 00:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9511,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 04 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Jamaica",
        "home": "Bahamas"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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