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Basketball World Cup
Upcoming · in 80h 24m
Angola logo

AngolavsMali

Mali logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 24picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Angola 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Mali

Mali has historically been the stronger FIBA basketball nation with deeper roster talent and more consistent international competition exper...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Angola

Angola has a strong home-court advantage and a history of success against Mali, including a decisive 70-43 victory in the 2025 AfroBasket fi...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 68% Angola

Angola holds a historical edge over Mali in FIBA competition and benefits from home-court advantage in this World Cup qualifier setting. Mal...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Angola

Based on training data through 2024 and general knowledge of African basketball, Angola has historically been one of the continent's stronge...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Angola

Based on historical performance and general basketball knowledge, Angola has a slight edge over Mali in international competitions. They are...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 68% Angola

Angola has traditionally been the stronger basketball nation in Africa with more depth and experience in World Cup competitions. Mali is imp...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Under 160.5 1/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 160.5

World Cup basketball games, especially those involving African nations not in the elite tier, tend to play at moderate pace with lower three...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown the ability to score high points in recent games, with Angola scoring 90 points against Uganda and Mali scoring 86 aga...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% under

Both teams play at moderate pace in international play, limiting high-scoring outputs. Defensive schemes in African qualifiers tend to keep...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 145.5

African international basketball games are often characterized by a slower pace and strong defensive focus, which typically leads to lower-s...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Over

Angola and Mali are generally competitive teams that can put up points. Without specific recent form or pace data, predicting an average-sco...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 145.5

Both teams in World Cup play tend to push the pace, and Angola's offensive efficiency should create enough scoring to push the total over. H...

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Spread

Consensus
Angola 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Mali -5.5

Mali's superior talent pool and international experience should translate to a 5–7 point advantage in a neutral-venue World Cup match. Angol...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Angola

Angola's home advantage and superior head-to-head record, including a significant win in the 2025 AfroBasket final, suggest they are likely...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Angola

Angola's home status and program depth give them a 6-10 point edge in this matchup. Mali struggles on the road against organized defenses. T...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Angola -8.5

Considering Angola's historical strength and consistent performance against other African nations, they are expected to be the superior team...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Mali

While Angola might be favored to win outright, Mali is expected to be competitive. A small spread suggests a close game, and Mali has shown...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Angola -5.5

Angola's home-court advantage and overall strength should allow them to cover a moderate spread against Mali, who may struggle to keep the g...

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First half winner

Consensus
Angola 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Mali

Mali's bench depth and execution advantage should manifest early in a World Cup setting where Angola may not have had full preparation time....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Angola

Angola's strong home performance and historical dominance over Mali suggest they are likely to lead at halftime.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 59% Angola

Angola typically starts strong with home energy and better preparation. Mali often needs time to adjust to opponent pace. Training data thro...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Angola

Stronger and more experienced teams like Angola tend to establish their dominance early in games. Based on training data through 2024, they...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Angola

Angola often starts games with strong defensive intensity and can build an early lead. Their experience in high-stakes tournaments typically...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% home_first_half

Angola typically starts strong with better preparation and tactical execution. Mali may need time to adjust, giving Angola an early advantag...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Angola

70
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Angola

68
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Angola

68
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Mali

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Angola

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Angola

60

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 114–73 · 61%
-2.1u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 121–97 · 56%
-30.1u
o4-mini
o4-mini 66–58 · 53%
-1.6u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 632–581 · 52%
-385.7u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 479–444 · 52%
-224.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 162–153 · 51%
-35.3u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 157–150 · 51%
-42.8u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 100–96 · 51%
+118.5u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 102–104 · 50%
+106.6u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 768–810 · 49%
-626.7u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 427–462 · 48%
-311.3u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 740–806 · 48%
-497.4u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 566–622 · 48%
-380.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 596–686 · 46%
-486.6u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 718–869 · 45%
-706.9u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 125–159 · 44%
-68.0u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: bb523933692ce558…
Kickoff
Sun, Jul 5 · 18:00 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First half winner
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 9791,
        "sport": "basketball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "World Cup",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-05T18:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 05 Jul 2026 18:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Mali",
        "home": "Angola"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "Pace is the master variable for totals — multiply both teams' possessions-per-game tendencies, not just their points.",
        "Check the injury/rest report first: a star sitting (or load-managed on a back-to-back) reshapes the spread and total.",
        "Weigh offensive vs defensive rating and three-point volume/variance — 3PT-heavy teams have wider outcome distributions.",
        "Bench depth and foul trouble swing close games; note rotation reliability.",
        "Back-to-backs and travel cause real fatigue — flag the schedule spot for each side.",
        "Home-court edge is meaningful but smaller than star availability."
    ],
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_half"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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