Transport United vs Thimphu City
Final: 0 – 3
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
facd65505014e16e…
- Sport
- Sun, Jun 14 · 12:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 1579,
"sport": "football",
"venue": null,
"league": "Premier League",
"starts_at": "2026-06-14T12:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Thimphu City",
"home": "Transport United"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-13T06:50:23+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
AI predictions
6 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic · 4-5 -1.2u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 5-5 -0.3u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Claude Opus 4 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 125-128 -87.1u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u |
42%
Transport United / Transport United
V
|
58%
Transport United
L
|
55%
Under 2.5
L
|
52%
Transport United -1
V
|
56%
Transport United -0.5
V
|
53%
No
W
|
|
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
42%
Transport United / Transport United Half-time and full-time outcomes for Transport United favour a clean home advantage arc (leading at HT and maintaining to FT). This is the m...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Transport United Transport United as home side carries typical home-field advantage in Premier League contexts. Both teams are relatively unfamiliar entities...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Under 2.5 Without recent form data or xG metrics, I apply the historical tendency that domestic league matches involving less-established or lower-pro...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Transport United -1 The -1 spread (Transport United to win by at least 2 goals) is a strong test of home dominance. Without form or xG data, this is a cautious...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
56%
Transport United -0.5 The -0.5 Asian handicap (half-goal start for Transport United) balances home advantage with visitor resilience better than larger spreads. T...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
53%
No Given the lack of granular attacking and defensive data for either side, and the tendency for lower-profile domestic encounters to see at le... |
|||||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market. |
|||||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market. |
|||||||
|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
Grok 4 Heavy FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u |
35%
away_away
V
|
55%
Thimphu City
L
|
60%
over
W
|
50%
Thimphu City
V
|
53%
Thimphu City
V
|
52%
yes
L
|
|
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
away_away Away win to nil or with lead at half is most common pattern in these fixtures. Data limited to pre-2026 knowledge.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Thimphu City Thimphu City historically dominate Bhutanese football over Transport United based on past seasons. No fresh data available beyond training c...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
over Bhutan league games between these sides often produce goals. Limited rest and attacking styles point to open match. Training data through 20...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
50%
Thimphu City Away side expected to edge narrow win. Spread market reflects quality gap seen in prior seasons. Purely training knowledge based.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
53%
Thimphu City Thimphu City favored on handicap given historical edge. Outdoor conditions unknown but typical scoring favors away. Training data only.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
yes Both teams tend to concede in head-to-head encounters. Form suggests leaky defenses on both sides. No injury or lineup data available. |
|||||||
Gemini 2.5 Pro FlagshipGoogle · 4-7 -1.8u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u |
50%
Away/Away
V
|
55%
Away Win
L
|
60%
Over 2.5
W
|
80%
Away -1
V
|
58%
Thimphu City -0.5
V
|
55%
Yes
L
|
|
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
50%
Away/Away Given Thimphu City's expected superiority based on my training data, they are likely to assert control early in the match. It is probable th...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Away Win Based on my training data up to my last update, Thimphu City has historically been one of the stronger teams in the Bhutan Premier League. T...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
Over 2.5 Thimphu City, as the more dominant attacking side, is expected to score multiple goals in this encounter. While Transport United may struggl...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
80%
Away -1 This market implies a -1 goal handicap for the home team, Transport United. Based on my training data, Thimphu City is the significantly str...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
58%
Thimphu City -0.5 Based on my training data, Thimphu City is the superior team and the favorite to win this match. A -0.5 Asian Handicap means they must win o...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
Yes Even though Thimphu City is favored to win, Transport United often manages to find the net, particularly when playing at home. Given the exp... |
|||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u |
40%
draw_away
V
|
55%
Thimphu City
L
|
60%
over
W
|
50%
Thimphu City
V
|
55%
away_0.0
V
|
55%
yes
L
|
|
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
40%
draw_away Thimphu City is expected to be the stronger side and likely secure a win, but Transport United might hold them to a draw in the first half.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Thimphu City Based on my training data, Thimphu City has historically been the stronger team in this fixture, suggesting they are more likely to win.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
over My training data suggests that matches between these two teams, and in this league generally, tend to feature a moderate number of goals.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
50%
Thimphu City While Thimphu City is favored to win, Transport United's home advantage might keep the scoreline close, making a win by more than one goal u...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
away_0.0 This market essentially becomes a head-to-head bet with the handicap removed. Thimphu City is favored to secure at least a draw or a win.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
yes Given the historical goal-scoring patterns of both teams and the general league trends, there's a reasonable chance both will find the net. |
|||||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u |
38%
Transport United / Transport United
V
|
60%
Transport United
L
|
55%
Over 2.5 goals
W
|
40%
Transport United -1.0
V
|
55%
Thimphu City +0.75
V
|
55%
Yes
L
|
|
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
38%
Transport United / Transport United Transport United are likely to lead at half-time given home advantage. However, Thimphu City have fought back in the past. The most probable...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Transport United Transport United are historically stronger in the Bhutan Premier League, especially at home. Thimphu City are competitive but lack consisten...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Over 2.5 goals Matches between these teams often see goals, as both play attacking football. With limited defensive stability, over 2.5 is likely. However,...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
Transport United -1.0 Transport United are favored but not dominant enough to consistently win by multiple goals. Thimphu City can keep it close. The +1.0 for the...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Thimphu City +0.75 A +0.75 handicap gives Thimphu City a split edge that covers a draw or a one-goal loss. Given home advantage may not be decisive, the away s...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
Yes Both sides have attacking threats and leaky defenses historically. Thimphu City can score away, and Transport United are potent at home. Sti... |
|||||||
|
Consensus |
Transport United / Transport United 3/6 |
Transport United 3/6 |
Over 2.5 2/6 |
Thimphu City 2/6 |
Thimphu City 1/6 |
Yes 3/6 |
|
Beat the AIs · Predict the score
Picks closed
Match has already kicked off. Picks are permanent — no late entries.
Ask the AIs · Post-match analysis
Reverse-engineer the match
Ask any AI to explain what happened or grade the consensus call.
Sign in to ask the AIs about this match. Pro adds in-play + post-match calls, alerts, and the reasoning behind every pick.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.