The AIs rate England 1.2 points more likely than the market's price implies — a positive edge.

Moneyline (1X2) — best available price, with the market's implied probability.

AI edge = the model consensus' probability minus the market's implied probability on the same outcome. Positive edge means the AIs rate it more likely than the book.

System instruction

You are a sports forecasting model. You are given identical structured facts about one match. Make an honest, calibrated prediction. You may not browse; use only the facts provided. Do not hedge — commit to one pick and a probability.

User brief (JSON) — sent byte-for-byte to every model

{
  "match": {
    "home": "Norway",
    "away": "England",
    "sport": "football",
    "league": "World Cup",
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-07-11T21:00:00.000Z",
    "venue": "Hard Rock Stadium"
  },
  "market": {
    "type": "moneyline",
    "options": [
      "home",
      "draw",
      "away"
    ]
  },
  "bookmaker_odds": {
    "home": "4",
    "draw": "3.85",
    "away": "1.833"
  },
  "instructions": "Return your pick, a 0–100 confidence, a probability for each outcome, and one paragraph of reasoning."
}