Muras United vs Alga

Final: 1 – 3

Picks locked at Jun 12 · 18:57 GMT+0000 30 picks recorded · 15 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    2d5caf4af8b1b9f9…

Sport: Sat, Jun 13 · 15:00 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 1289,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Premier League",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T15:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 15:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Alga",
        "home": "Muras United"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T18:57:18+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

6 markets · 5 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Over / Under ?	Match winner ?	Both teams to score ?	Half-time / Full-time ?	Spread ?	Asian handicap ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	55% Under 2.5 L	58% Muras United L	52% No L	42% Muras United / Muras United V	48% Muras United -1 V	55% Muras United -0.5 V
Over / Under ? 55% Under 2.5 Without access to current team offensive output, defensive records, or playing style, a slight lean to Under 2.5 reflects conservatism in go... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 58% Muras United Muras United play at home with typical home-field advantage in Premier League context, though no live fixture data or recent form is availab... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 52% No Both teams to score assumes balanced attacking threat and permeable defences on both sides. Without recent form, injury data, or tactical pr... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 42% Muras United / Muras United HT/FT (half-time / full-time) is the most speculative market given zero form data. Home win across both halves is selected marginally over a... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% Muras United -1 Spreads of -1 require a two-goal home victory. Home-field advantage is modest, and without form, lineups, or head-to-head history, expecting... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Muras United -0.5 Asian handicap of -0.5 is a half-goal advantage, meaning Muras United must win or draw to cover. This is more achievable than a -1 spread an... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	53% over W	52% Muras United L	51% yes W	35% home/home V	48% home_-1 V	52% home_-0.5 V
Over / Under ? 53% over League matches involving Alga tend to produce goals above 2.5 on average. Muras United games also lean open based on past seasons. Training... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 52% Muras United Muras United benefits from home status in this Kyrgyz Premier League fixture. Historical patterns favor the home side in domestic matches be... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 51% yes Both teams have shown attacking tendencies in historical encounters. Defensive records are not dominant enough to expect clean sheets. Train... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 35% home/home Full-time home win is the base case and half-time lead for home follows from typical patterns. Other HT/FT combinations remain possible but... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% home_-1 Home side expected to win but margin uncertain given limited recent data on Muras. Spread -1 requires a two-goal margin which is not guarant... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 52% home_-0.5 Asian handicap favors the home team due to venue and typical league positioning. Alga struggles away from home in recorded seasons. Training... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	55% Over 2.5 W	45% Muras United L	60% Yes W	20% Draw/Muras United V	55% Alga +1 V	55% Alga +0.5 V
Over / Under ? 55% Over 2.5 Given a Premier League context and assuming both teams have reasonably capable attacks, there's a good chance for at least three goals. Whil... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 45% Muras United Based on my training data through 2023, I assume Muras United, as the home team, holds a slight advantage in this Premier League fixture. Ho... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 60% Yes With Muras United favored to win at home, they are expected to score. If Alga can find the net, which is likely given the 'Over 2.5' predict... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 20% Draw/Muras United A common scenario for a favored home team is to start cautiously, resulting in a draw at half-time. They then leverage their home advantage... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Alga +1 Muras United is a slight favorite, but winning by two or more goals is less common than a narrow victory or a draw. Alga +1 covers scenarios... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Alga +0.5 For this Asian Handicap line of -0.5 for Muras United, a bet on Muras United requires them to win outright. Alga +0.5 covers both a draw and... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	60% over W	55% Muras United L	58% yes W	35% draw-draw V	52% Alga V	55% Alga +0.25 V
Over / Under ? 60% over Premier League matches often feature a good number of goals. Assuming both teams have reasonably functional offenses, it's likely that at le... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Muras United Based on training data, Muras United is generally a stronger team in the Premier League than Alga. Without specific recent form or lineup da... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 58% yes Given the assumption of a moderately open game favoring goals (as per totals_2.5 prediction), it's probable that both teams will find the ne... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 35% draw-draw Given the uncertainty and lack of strong indicators, a cautious approach suggests a half-time draw is plausible. The second half could also... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Alga If Muras United is the favored team (h2h), Alga would need to overcome a -1 handicap. This suggests Alga might be more likely to keep the sc... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Alga +0.25 With no strong indicator of a dominant performance from either side, the Asian Handicap of +0.25 for Alga offers a slight safety net. This p... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	35% Over 2.5 W	40% Muras United L	55% No L	20% Draw/Draw V	50% Alga +1 V	50% Alga +0.25 V
Over / Under ? 35% Over 2.5 With no reliable stats, lower-league matches often have fewer goals. Training data suggests many Kyrgyz league games end under 2.5 goals. I... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 40% Muras United Based on my training data through mid-2025, Muras United and Alga are relatively unfamiliar teams, likely from lower Kyrgyz leagues. Assumin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 55% No Given the lack of attacking form data, it's plausible that at least one team fails to score. BTTS No is slightly more likely than Yes, but u... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 20% Draw/Draw Draw at half-time and full-time is a common result in low-scoring matches. With teams of similar strength, a stalemate is plausible, but oth... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Alga +1 Alga +1 covers a draw or loss by one goal. Since the match is likely close, Alga +1 is probable. However, Muras United winning by 2+ cannot... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 50% Alga +0.25 Asian handicap +0.25 splits stake between draw and win. Alga +0.25 is slightly favored due to expected closeness. Uncertainty remains high. Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	over 2/5	Muras United 5/5	yes 2/5	Draw/Draw 1/5	Alga +1 2/5	Alga +0.25 2/5