Kedus Giorgis vs Mekelakeya
Final: 3 – 0
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
020713af0efb7f47…
- Sport
- Sun, Jun 14 · 12:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 1578,
"sport": "football",
"venue": null,
"league": "Premier League",
"starts_at": "2026-06-14T12:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Mekelakeya",
"home": "Kedus Giorgis"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-13T06:57:19+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
AI predictions
6 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic · 4-5 -1.2u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 5-5 -0.3u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4 FlagshipAnthropic |
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 125-128 -87.1u |
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|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u |
51%
Kedus Giorgis / Kedus Giorgis
V
|
62%
Kedus Giorgis
W
|
58%
Under 2.5
L
|
60%
No
W
|
55%
Kedus Giorgis -1
V
|
57%
Kedus Giorgis -0.5
V
|
|
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
51%
Kedus Giorgis / Kedus Giorgis The most likely HT/FT path is Kedus Giorgis leading at half and full-time, reflecting their historical advantage and home turf. This scenari...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Kedus Giorgis Kedus Giorgis is one of Ethiopia's most successful clubs historically and typically commands stronger domestic form than Mekelakeya. Without...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Under 2.5 Ethiopian domestic football matches, particularly between clubs of mixed pedigree, tend toward modest goal totals due to defensive-minded ta...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
No Both teams finding the net requires both sides to demonstrate attacking competence and defensive vulnerability simultaneously. In lower-tier...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Kedus Giorgis -1 A one-goal spread favors the stronger historical side (Kedus Giorgis) at home, but the modest confidence reflects lack of current form data....
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
57%
Kedus Giorgis -0.5 The half-goal handicap is more forgiving than spreads_-1 and aligns with Kedus Giorgis's historical advantage and home status. A narrow edge... |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market. |
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|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4 Heavy FlagshipXai |
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u |
42%
home/home
V
|
58%
Kedus Giorgis
L
|
53%
over
W
|
51%
yes
L
|
55%
Kedus Giorgis
V
|
56%
home -0.5
V
|
|
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
42%
home/home Strong home start followed by continued control is the most common pattern. Kedus Giorgis rarely relinquishes leads in these games. Predicti...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Kedus Giorgis Kedus Giorgis has historically been the stronger side in Ethiopian top-flight matches. Home advantage and typical dominance over Mekelakeya...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over Matches between these sides often produce open play with multiple goals. Recent patterns in the league favor over 2.5. Prediction based on t...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
51%
yes Both teams tend to score in head-to-head encounters. Attacking styles increase likelihood of goals at both ends. Prediction based on trainin...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Kedus Giorgis Kedus Giorgis expected to cover a narrow spread at home. Historical results support home side covering -1. Prediction based on training data...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
56%
home -0.5 Home favoritism makes the -0.5 Asian handicap attractive. Kedus Giorgis typically wins these fixtures outright. Prediction based on training... |
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Gemini 2.5 Pro FlagshipGoogle · 4-7 -1.8u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u |
45%
Home/Home
V
|
60%
Home Win
L
|
55%
Under 2.5 Goals
L
|
60%
No
W
|
40%
Home -1
V
|
60%
Kedus Giorgis -0.5
V
|
|
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
45%
Home/Home Given Kedus Giorgis's historical dominance, especially in home fixtures, it is highly probable they will establish an early lead and maintai...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Home Win Based on historical performance and general club stature within the Ethiopian Premier League, Kedus Giorgis holds a significant advantage, e...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Under 2.5 Goals Matches in the Ethiopian Premier League, especially between strong teams, can often be tight affairs with a premium on defensive solidity. W...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
No Kedus Giorgis, as a historically dominant team, is known for a strong defense and the ability to keep clean sheets against many league oppon...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
Home -1 Building on Kedus Giorgis's strong historical performance, a victory margin of two or more goals against a respectable opponent like Mekelak...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
60%
Kedus Giorgis -0.5 This pick is a confident affirmation of Kedus Giorgis's outright victory, drawing upon their well-established status as one of the Ethiopian... |
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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u |
40%
draw-draw
V
|
55%
Kedus Giorgis
L
|
52%
over
W
|
53%
yes
L
|
51%
Mekelakeya
V
|
52%
Mekelakeya +0.75
V
|
|
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
40%
draw-draw Without specific first-half performance data for both teams, predicting a draw at halftime and a draw at full-time is the safest bet, reflec...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Kedus Giorgis Based on general football knowledge, Kedus Giorgis is typically a stronger team in Ethiopian football leagues compared to Mekelakeya. Withou...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
over Ethiopian league matches can sometimes be lower scoring, but without specific data on these teams' recent offensive and defensive records, p...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
53%
yes Both teams are likely to score in this fixture. Kedus Giorgis has a stronger offensive presence, but Mekelakeya can often find the net, espe...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Mekelakeya Kedus Giorgis is favored, so for Mekelakeya to cover a -1 spread, they would need to avoid a significant loss. This pick leans on Mekelakeya...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
52%
Mekelakeya +0.75 Given Kedus Giorgis' typical strength, a +0.75 handicap for Mekelakeya offers a good balance. This bet wins if Mekelakeya wins or draws, and... |
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DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u |
50%
Home/Home
V
|
65%
Kedus Giorgis
W
|
55%
Under 2.5
L
|
60%
No
W
|
50%
Kedus Giorgis -1
V
|
55%
Kedus Giorgis -0.75
V
|
|
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
50%
Home/Home Kedus Giorgis likely to lead at half-time and full-time given home dominance. However, cautious as they may start slowly. Most probable outc...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
65%
Kedus Giorgis Kedus Giorgis historically dominant at home vs Mekelakeya. No recent form data available, but home advantage and stronger squad likely decis...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Under 2.5 Ethiopian Premier League matches often low-scoring, especially involving Mekelakeya. Kedus Giorgis tends to control matches without high goa...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
No Mekelakeya struggles to score away from home. Kedus Giorgis likely to keep a clean sheet given defensive solidity. Historical head-to-head s...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
50%
Kedus Giorgis -1 Kedus Giorgis expected to win by one goal margin, making the spread -1 a 50/50 proposition. Home advantage but not overwhelming. Likely a na...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Kedus Giorgis -0.75 Slight edge to Kedus Giorgis covering -0.75 if they win by one. Home advantage and quality difference suggest they can edge it. Partial win... |
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Consensus |
Home/Home 3/6 |
Kedus Giorgis 5/6 |
Under 2.5 3/6 |
No 4/6 |
Kedus Giorgis -1 3/6 |
Kedus Giorgis -0.5 3/6 |
|
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Bookmaker odds
12 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Kedus Giorgis | Draw | Mekelakeya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | 2.71 | — |
| Unibet | — | 2.75 | — |
| 10bet | — | 2.70 | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | 2.67 | — |
| Betano | — | 2.67 | — |
| Betfair | — | 2.80 | — |
| Betvictor | — | 2.75 | — |
| Dafabet | — | 2.70 | — |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.67 | — |
| Sbo | — | 2.60 | — |
| Superbet | — | 2.72 | — |
| William-hill | — | 2.50 | — |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | — | — |
| Unibet | — | — | — |
| 10bet | — | — | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | — | — |
| Betano | — | — | — |
| Betfair | — | — | — |
| Betvictor | — | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — | — |
| Sbo | — | — | — |
| Superbet | — | — | — |
| William-hill | — | — | — |
| Book | Kedus Giorgis | Mekelakeya |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | — |
| Unibet | — | — |
| 10bet | — | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | — |
| Betano | — | — |
| Betfair | — | — |
| Betvictor | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — |
| Sbo | — | — |
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Kedus Giorgis Mekelakeya
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