Hadiya Hosaena vs Fasil Ketema
Kickoff · Mon, Jun 15 · 15:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
acfbffa28e156f56…
- Sport
- Mon, Jun 15 · 15:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 1850,
"sport": "football",
"venue": null,
"league": "Premier League",
"starts_at": "2026-06-15T15:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Mon, 15 Jun 2026 15:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Fasil Ketema",
"home": "Hadiya Hosaena"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-14T06:21:44+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
6 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic · 4-5 -1.2u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 5-5 -0.3u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 125-128 -87.1u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u |
58%
Hadiya Hosaena |
62%
Under 2.5 |
60%
No |
52%
Hadiya Hosaena -1 |
55%
Hadiya Hosaena -0.5 |
45%
Hadiya Hosaena / Hadiya Hosaena |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Hadiya Hosaena Hadiya Hosaena plays at home in the Ethiopian Premier League and historically holds a slight edge in this domestic rivalry. Without access t...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
62%
Under 2.5 Ethiopian Premier League matches typically feature lower goal tallies than Western European leagues, with defensive play and fewer clinical...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
No Both teams finding the net requires two functional attacking units and weak defenses; Ethiopian Premier League matches more often feature on...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Hadiya Hosaena -1 Home-field advantage and marginal historical superiority suggest a slight lean toward Hadiya winning by at least one goal, but this is not a...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Hadiya Hosaena -0.5 The -0.5 handicap gives Hadiya a minimal edge, reflecting home advantage without overcommitting. This is the most conservative way to expres...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
45%
Hadiya Hosaena / Hadiya Hosaena A clean home win (leading at halftime and full-time) is the most likely single outcome if Hadiya wins, but given the uncertainty around curr... |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market. |
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|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4 Heavy FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u |
48%
Hadiya Hosaena |
53%
under |
55%
no |
42%
Hadiya Hosaena |
51%
home-0.25 |
28%
draw/home |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
48%
Hadiya Hosaena Hadiya Hosaena hold a modest home edge in Ethiopian Premier League fixtures against Fasil Ketema based on historical patterns. Training data...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
under Matches between these sides have frequently stayed under 2.5 goals in past seasons. Ethiopian league games tend to be low-scoring overall. T...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
no Both teams have shown defensive setups in head-to-heads, reducing the likelihood of both scoring. Training data indicates many clean sheets...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
42%
Hadiya Hosaena Hadiya at home rarely win by two clear goals versus Fasil. Training data through 2023 shows tight margins. Away side often keeps contests cl...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
51%
home-0.25 Slight home favoritism exists for Hadiya but not enough for a full goal handicap. Training knowledge points to narrow home wins or draws. No...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
draw/home Common pattern in these fixtures is a cautious first half followed by home side pushing later. Training data through 2023 supports draw/home... |
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Gemini 2.5 Pro FlagshipGoogle · 4-7 -1.8u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u |
45%
Fasil Ketema |
55%
Over 2.5 |
58%
Yes |
75%
Fasil Ketema |
55%
Hadiya Hosaena (+0.5) |
35%
Away/Away |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Fasil Ketema Based on my training data, Fasil Ketema has historically been one of the stronger teams in the Ethiopian Premier League, often competing at...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Over 2.5 Fasil Ketema, as a stronger attacking side, typically contributes to higher-scoring games. While the Ethiopian Premier League can be tight,...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
58%
Yes Given Fasil Ketema's offensive strength, they are highly expected to score. Hadiya Hosaena, despite being the underdog, often performs bette...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
75%
Fasil Ketema The spread of -1 applies to the home team, Hadiya Hosaena. For Hadiya Hosaena (-1) to win, they would need to win by 2 or more goals. Given...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Hadiya Hosaena (+0.5) For the Asian Handicap of Fasil Ketema (-0.5), Fasil Ketema must win for the bet to be successful. Hadiya Hosaena (+0.5) means they win if H...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
Away/Away Considering Fasil Ketema's historical superiority, they are expected to assert dominance early in the match and maintain their lead. A Half-... |
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u |
45%
Fasil Ketema |
55%
over |
52%
yes |
51%
Hadiya Hosaena |
48%
away_0.0 |
35%
draw_draw |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Fasil Ketema Based on my training data, Fasil Ketema has historically performed better against Hadiya Hosaena. Without current form or lineup data, I'm l...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over The historical performance between these two teams suggests a moderate number of goals, but leaning towards over 2.5. Without recent match d...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
yes Given the historical tendency for both teams to score in their encounters, 'Both Teams To Score' is a plausible outcome. This prediction rel...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Hadiya Hosaena If Hadiya Hosaena is considered the home team, they might have a slight edge when factoring in a -1 handicap, suggesting they are capable of...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
48%
away_0.0 The away team, Fasil Ketema, is slightly favored due to historical performance, making them the pick with a 0.0 handicap. This implies a pre...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
draw_draw Given the potential for a closely contested match and the historical tendency for draws between these teams, a 'Draw-Draw' outcome at halfti... |
|||||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u |
52%
Hadiya Hosaena |
57%
Under 2.5 |
53%
No |
30%
Home -1 |
50%
Home -0.25 |
22%
Draw/Draw |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
Hadiya Hosaena Training data through 2025-09. Hadiya Hosaena has strong home form while Fasil Ketema struggles on the road. No recent lineups or injuries a...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
57%
Under 2.5 Training data through 2025-09. Both teams tend to play low-scoring matches, with Hadiya Hosaena averaging 1.2 goals per game and Fasil Ketem...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
53%
No Training data through 2025-09. Hadiya Hosaena keeps clean sheets often at home, while Fasil Ketema struggles to score away. Head-to-head mat...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
30%
Home -1 Training data through 2025-09. Hadiya Hosaena rarely wins by more than one goal, making a -1 handicap risky. Expected tight match with low s...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
50%
Home -0.25 Training data through 2025-09. Balanced matchup with slight home advantage. A -0.25 handicap offers marginal edge for home win, but the prob...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
22%
Draw/Draw Training data through 2025-09. Teams often start slowly and matches are tight, making Draw/Draw a reasonable middle outcome. However, low co... |
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|
Consensus |
Hadiya Hosaena 4/6 |
Under 2.5 3/6 |
No 3/6 |
Hadiya Hosaena -1 2/6 |
Hadiya Hosaena -0.5 2/6 |
Hadiya Hosaena / Hadiya Hosaena 1/6 |
|
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Bookmaker odds
10 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Hadiya Hosaena | Draw | Fasil Ketema |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | 2.13 | — |
| Unibet | — | 2.75 | — |
| 10bet | — | 2.38 | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | 2.36 | — |
| Betano | — | 2.37 | — |
| Betfair | — | 2.38 | — |
| Betvictor | — | 2.70 | — |
| Dafabet | — | 2.39 | — |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.36 | — |
| Superbet | — | 2.20 | — |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | — | — |
| Unibet | — | — | — |
| 10bet | — | — | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | — | — |
| Betano | — | — | — |
| Betfair | — | — | — |
| Betvictor | — | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — | — |
| Superbet | — | — | — |
| Book | Hadiya Hosaena | Fasil Ketema |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | — |
| Unibet | — | — |
| 10bet | — | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | — |
| Betfair | — | — |
| Betvictor | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — |
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Hadiya Hosaena Fasil Ketema
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
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