Foutoua vs Al Karama

Final: 2 – 4

Picks locked at Jun 11 · 15:28 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded · 12 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    baaff471f75c293e…

Sport: Fri, Jun 12 · 13:00 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 801,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Premier League",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-12T13:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 12 Jun 2026 13:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Al Karama",
        "home": "Foutoua"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T03:26:53+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

6 markets · 4 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Over / Under ?	Both teams to score ?	Spread ?	Asian handicap ?	Half-time / Full-time ?	Match winner ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	58% Under 2.5 L	54% Yes W	48% Foutoua -1 V	51% Foutoua -0.5 V	38% Home/Home V	52% Foutoua L
Over / Under ? 58% Under 2.5 Both teams show defensive vulnerabilities but limited attacking prowess based on season stats. Recent matches have been low-scoring (1-1, 2-... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Both teams to score ? 54% Yes Both teams have shown attacking capability (Foutoua 22 goals, Al Karama scored in recent loss). Defensive weaknesses on both sides create op... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 48% Foutoua -1 Home advantage is marginal given Foutoua's poor goal difference. Al Karama's recent loss suggests form disadvantage. However, spread of -1 i... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Asian handicap ? 51% Foutoua -0.5 Modest home advantage without need for goal-spread buffer. Foutoua's higher league position and Al Karama's poor recent form support slight... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 38% Home/Home Home win most likely outcome, though confidence is low given data gaps. First-half and full-time home wins less frequent in Syrian league. L... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Match winner ? 52% Foutoua Foutoua holds home advantage and table position despite poor defensive record. Al Karama's recent 2-4 loss suggests weak form. Syrian league... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	51% under L	47% no L	76% Al Karama V	76% Al Karama V	76% away/away V	52% Al Karama L
Over / Under ? 51% under The probability of over 2.5 goals is 51%, indicating a slight lean towards under 2.5 goals. ([betmines.com](https://betmines.com/fr/matchs/p... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Both teams to score ? 47% no The probability of both teams scoring is 53%, suggesting a slight lean towards both teams scoring. ([betmines.com](https://betmines.com/fr/m... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 76% Al Karama Al Karama is favored to win by at least 1 goal, with a 76% probability. ([forebet.com](https://www.forebet.com/de/football/matches/foutoua-c... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Asian handicap ? 76% Al Karama Al Karama is favored to win by at least 1 goal, with a 76% probability. ([forebet.com](https://www.forebet.com/de/football/matches/foutoua-c... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Half-time / Full-time ? 76% away/away Al Karama is favored to win both at halftime and fulltime, with a 76% probability. ([forebet.com](https://www.forebet.com/de/football/matche... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Match winner ? 52% Al Karama Al Karama has won 3 of the last 5 encounters against Al Futuwa, including a 1-0 victory on March 1, 2026. ([betmines.com](https://betmines.c... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	55% over W	51% yes W	48% home_-1 V	53% home_-0.25 V	32% home_home V	52% Foutoua L
Over / Under ? 55% over Syrian league matches often produce open games; no weather or venue data available. Training data through 2024 contains no specific 2026 for... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 51% yes Both teams historically concede regularly in domestic play. Training data through 2024 contains no specific 2026 form or lineups for these c... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% home_-1 Home side expected to win but margin uncertain without recent form. Training data through 2024 contains no specific 2026 form or lineups for... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 53% home_-0.25 Slight home edge assumed in absence of any 2026 data. Training data through 2024 contains no specific 2026 form or lineups for these clubs. Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 32% home_home Home team favored to lead at both half and full time based on generic home advantage. Training data through 2024 contains no specific 2026 f... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 52% Foutoua Foutoua is the home side in what appears to be a Syrian league fixture; typical home advantage applies. Training data through 2024 contains... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market.
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	55% under L	55% no L	50% Al Karama V	50% home +0.25 V	25% draw_draw V	45% Foutoua L
Over / Under ? 55% under Based on training data, matches involving these teams tend to be low-scoring. Without current attacking form, the under is slightly more pro... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 55% no Training data suggests that both teams are defensively solid with limited goal-scoring. A clean sheet for either side seems more likely than... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Al Karama Al Karama is perceived as the slightly stronger team, so covering a -1 spread is possible but not guaranteed. Without current data, this is... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 50% home +0.25 The match is evenly balanced. Home advantage makes Foutoua with a +0.25 handicap a reasonable pick, as they avoid a loss in half the scenari... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 25% draw_draw The most likely scenario given low-scoring tendencies and parity is a draw at half-time and full-time. Other outcomes have lower probabiliti... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 45% Foutoua No recent data available from my training cut-off (2025-09). Foutoua is the home team, which typically gives a slight edge, but Al Karama is... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	under 2/4	no 2/4	Al Karama 2/4	Al Karama 1/4	home_home 1/4	Foutoua 3/4

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

GPT-4o Mini
6 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
18 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

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