Ethiopian MedhinvsDire Dawa Kenema
Ethiopian Medhin 1–0 Dire Dawa Kenema
5 of 6 AIs leaned Ethiopian Medhin — and reality agreed.
- AI lean
- Ethiopian Medhin 5/6
- Correct calls
- 5/6
- Final
- 1–0
Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.
AI predictions
6 markets · 6 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
16 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
Under 2.5 3/6 models |
yes 3/6 models |
Ethiopian Medhin 5/6 models |
Ethiopian Medhin / Ethiopian Medhin 2/6 models |
Ethiopian Medhin -1 2/6 models |
Ethiopian Medhin -0.5 2/6 models |
|
|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
58%
Under 2.5
W
|
65%
No
W
|
62%
Ethiopian Medhin
W
|
51%
Medhin HT / Medhin FT
L
|
54%
Ethiopian Medhin -1 |
59%
Ethiopian Medhin -0.75
W
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Under 2.5 Ethiopian Premier League football is generally characterized by lower-scoring matches compared to top-tier European leagues, with limited at...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
65%
No Both-teams-to-score outcomes are less common in lower-tier African leagues where defensive organization often overcomes attacking threat. Di...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Ethiopian Medhin Ethiopian Medhin is the home side and historically the more established club in Ethiopian football with greater infrastructure and fan suppo...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
51%
Medhin HT / Medhin FT Ethiopian Medhin is likely to control the match from the start, making a half-time lead followed by full-time victory the most probable scor...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
54%
Ethiopian Medhin -1 Ethiopian Medhin's home advantage and historical superiority suggest they can win by at least one goal, though Dire Dawa Kenema's defensive...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
59%
Ethiopian Medhin -0.75 A -0.75 handicap for Medhin balances home-field dominance against the risk of a low-scoring draw. This split allows for a push on draw outco... |
|||||||
|
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market. |
|||||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market. |
|||||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
over
L
|
51%
yes
L
|
52%
Ethiopian Medhin
W
|
38%
Ethiopian Medhin / Ethiopian Medhin |
49%
Ethiopian Medhin |
52%
Ethiopian Medhin -0.5
W
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over League matches often see open play leading to over 2.5 goals on average. Limited specific data but typical scoring rates favor the over. All...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
51%
yes Both teams tend to concede in away/home fixtures respectively based on older patterns. This supports both teams scoring. All predictions dra...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
Ethiopian Medhin Ethiopian Medhin at home holds a slight edge in typical Ethiopian Premier League matchups based on historical patterns. Dire Dawa Kenema str...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
38%
Ethiopian Medhin / Ethiopian Medhin Home team likely leads at half and maintains lead in low-scoring league style. Probabilities reflect typical HT/FT distribution. All predict...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
49%
Ethiopian Medhin Home advantage gives Ethiopian Medhin a chance to cover -1 but away side keeps it close enough often. All predictions drawn from training da...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
52%
Ethiopian Medhin -0.5 Standard home handicap leans slightly toward Ethiopian Medhin given venue. No major upsets expected from older trends. All predictions drawn... |
|||||||
|
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
65%
Under 2.5
W
|
60%
No
W
|
45%
Ethiopian Medhin
W
|
35%
Draw / Ethiopian Medhin |
40%
Draw |
60%
Dire Dawa Kenema +0.75
L
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
65%
Under 2.5 Matches in the Ethiopian Premier League, particularly between these two teams, are historically low-scoring affairs. Defensive play often do...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
No Consistent with the generally low-scoring trend in the Ethiopian Premier League, both teams scoring is less common in matches of this calibe...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Ethiopian Medhin Based on historical performance in the Ethiopian Premier League, Ethiopian Medhin generally holds a stronger home record against Dire Dawa K...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
Draw / Ethiopian Medhin Given Ethiopian Medhin's historical home advantage and the generally cautious, low-scoring nature of Ethiopian Premier League games, a deadl...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
Draw Ethiopian Medhin is favored, but matches in this league are often very tight, making a multi-goal victory difficult. A narrow one-goal win f...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
60%
Dire Dawa Kenema +0.75 While Ethiopian Medhin is favored for a win, matches are often tight in this league. Dire Dawa Kenema +0.75 offers good value, as it covers... |
|||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
55%
over
L
|
52%
yes
L
|
55%
Dire Dawa Kenema
L
|
45%
draw_away |
53%
Dire Dawa Kenema
L
|
54%
away_ -0.75 |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Based on historical trends in matches involving these teams, there's a moderate tendency towards over 2.5 goals. This suggests a potential f...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
yes Both teams have shown a propensity to concede goals in past encounters, while also possessing the ability to score. This suggests a good cha...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Dire Dawa Kenema Without current data, I am relying on my training knowledge. Dire Dawa Kenema has historically shown a slight edge over Ethiopian Medhin, ma...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
45%
draw_away In the absence of real-time data, the prediction relies on general patterns. A draw at halftime followed by an away win is a plausible scena...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
53%
Dire Dawa Kenema Given the slight historical advantage for Dire Dawa Kenema, they are favored to cover a -1 handicap, implying they are expected to win by mo...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
54%
away_ -0.75 Dire Dawa Kenema is slightly favored to win, making the -0.75 handicap a reasonable pick, suggesting they are expected to win by at least on... |
|||||||
|
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
50%
over_2.5
L
|
50%
yes
L
|
40%
Ethiopian Medhin
W
|
20%
draw_draw |
30%
home_ -1 |
55%
away_ +0.25 |
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
50%
over_2.5 Both teams are mid-table sides with moderate scoring records. Goals are uncertain without current form data, but a 50/50 split is reasonable...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
50%
yes Both teams are expected to be competitive, with a moderate chance of each scoring. Without specific defensive or attacking data, an equal pr...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
40%
Ethiopian Medhin Ethiopian Medhin have a slight home advantage in the Ethiopian Premier League, but Dire Dawa Kenema are a competitive side. Without recent f...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
20%
draw_draw The most likely single outcome is a draw at both half-time and full-time, given the even matchup. Home/Home and Draw/Home are also plausible...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
30%
home_ -1 Ethiopian Medhin are unlikely to win by more than one goal given the perceived parity. The away team covering a +1 spread is more probable.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
away_ +0.25 The slight edge to away +0.25 reflects a balanced match where Dire Dawa Kenema may avoid defeat. Home advantage is minimal based on historic... |
|||||||
Over / Under
ConsensusUnder 2.5 3/6
Ethiopian Premier League football is generally characterized by lower-scoring matches compared to top-tier European leagues, with limited at...
League matches often see open play leading to over 2.5 goals on average. Limited specific data but typical scoring rates favor the over. All...
Matches in the Ethiopian Premier League, particularly between these two teams, are historically low-scoring affairs. Defensive play often do...
Based on historical trends in matches involving these teams, there's a moderate tendency towards over 2.5 goals. This suggests a potential f...
Both teams are mid-table sides with moderate scoring records. Goals are uncertain without current form data, but a 50/50 split is reasonable...
Both teams to score
Consensusyes 3/6
Both-teams-to-score outcomes are less common in lower-tier African leagues where defensive organization often overcomes attacking threat. Di...
Both teams tend to concede in away/home fixtures respectively based on older patterns. This supports both teams scoring. All predictions dra...
Consistent with the generally low-scoring trend in the Ethiopian Premier League, both teams scoring is less common in matches of this calibe...
Both teams have shown a propensity to concede goals in past encounters, while also possessing the ability to score. This suggests a good cha...
Both teams are expected to be competitive, with a moderate chance of each scoring. Without specific defensive or attacking data, an equal pr...
Match winner
ConsensusEthiopian Medhin 5/6
Ethiopian Medhin is the home side and historically the more established club in Ethiopian football with greater infrastructure and fan suppo...
Ethiopian Medhin at home holds a slight edge in typical Ethiopian Premier League matchups based on historical patterns. Dire Dawa Kenema str...
Based on historical performance in the Ethiopian Premier League, Ethiopian Medhin generally holds a stronger home record against Dire Dawa K...
Without current data, I am relying on my training knowledge. Dire Dawa Kenema has historically shown a slight edge over Ethiopian Medhin, ma...
Ethiopian Medhin have a slight home advantage in the Ethiopian Premier League, but Dire Dawa Kenema are a competitive side. Without recent f...
Half-time / Full-time
ConsensusEthiopian Medhin / Ethiopian Medhin 2/6
Ethiopian Medhin is likely to control the match from the start, making a half-time lead followed by full-time victory the most probable scor...
Home team likely leads at half and maintains lead in low-scoring league style. Probabilities reflect typical HT/FT distribution. All predict...
Given Ethiopian Medhin's historical home advantage and the generally cautious, low-scoring nature of Ethiopian Premier League games, a deadl...
In the absence of real-time data, the prediction relies on general patterns. A draw at halftime followed by an away win is a plausible scena...
The most likely single outcome is a draw at both half-time and full-time, given the even matchup. Home/Home and Draw/Home are also plausible...
Spread
ConsensusEthiopian Medhin -1 2/6
Ethiopian Medhin's home advantage and historical superiority suggest they can win by at least one goal, though Dire Dawa Kenema's defensive...
Home advantage gives Ethiopian Medhin a chance to cover -1 but away side keeps it close enough often. All predictions drawn from training da...
Ethiopian Medhin is favored, but matches in this league are often very tight, making a multi-goal victory difficult. A narrow one-goal win f...
Given the slight historical advantage for Dire Dawa Kenema, they are favored to cover a -1 handicap, implying they are expected to win by mo...
Ethiopian Medhin are unlikely to win by more than one goal given the perceived parity. The away team covering a +1 spread is more probable.
Asian handicap
ConsensusEthiopian Medhin -0.5 2/6
A -0.75 handicap for Medhin balances home-field dominance against the risk of a low-scoring draw. This split allows for a push on draw outco...
Standard home handicap leans slightly toward Ethiopian Medhin given venue. No major upsets expected from older trends. All predictions drawn...
While Ethiopian Medhin is favored for a win, matches are often tight in this league. Dire Dawa Kenema +0.75 offers good value, as it covers...
Dire Dawa Kenema is slightly favored to win, making the -0.75 handicap a reasonable pick, suggesting they are expected to win by at least on...
The slight edge to away +0.25 reflects a balanced match where Dire Dawa Kenema may avoid defeat. Home advantage is minimal based on historic...
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winnerClaude Haiku 4.5
Ethiopian Medhin
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Dire Dawa Kenema
Grok 4 Fast
Ethiopian Medhin
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Ethiopian Medhin
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Ethiopian Medhin
DeepSeek V3
Ethiopian Medhin
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Beat the AIs · Predict the score
Picks closed
Match has already kicked off. Picks are permanent — no late entries.
Team news
ProInjuries and confirmed lineups — the same team news the AIs factored into their reads.
Team news is a Pro feature
see exactly who's out and the XIs the AIs reasoned on, before kickoff.
Bookmaker odds
10 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Ethiopian Medhin | Draw | Dire Dawa Kenema |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | — | 2.50 | — |
| 10bet | — | 2.70 | — |
| 1xbet | — | 2.53 | — |
| Betano | — | 2.67 | — |
| Betfair | — | 2.80 | — |
| Dafabet | — | 2.75 | — |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.53 | — |
| Sbo | — | 2.64 | — |
| Superbet | — | 2.52 | — |
| William-hill | — | 2.60 | — |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | — | — | — |
| 10bet | — | — | — |
| 1xbet | — | — | — |
| Betano | — | — | — |
| Betfair | — | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — | — |
| Sbo | — | — | — |
| Superbet | — | — | — |
| William-hill | — | — | — |
| Book | Ethiopian Medhin | Dire Dawa Kenema |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | — | — |
| 10bet | — | — |
| 1xbet | — | — |
| Betano | — | — |
| Betfair | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — |
| Sbo | — | — |
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
479557a11f0b5df2…
- Kickoff
- Sun, Jun 14 · 15:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 1672,
"sport": "football",
"venue": null,
"league": "Premier League",
"starts_at": "2026-06-14T15:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 15:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Dire Dawa Kenema",
"home": "Ethiopian Medhin"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-13T07:40:43+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.