Ethiopia Bunna vs Sidama Bunna
Final: 1 – 2
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
4a36c7a12435000e…
- Sport
- Sun, Jun 14 · 12:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 1577,
"sport": "football",
"venue": null,
"league": "Premier League",
"starts_at": "2026-06-14T12:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Sidama Bunna",
"home": "Ethiopia Bunna"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-13T06:46:07+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
AI predictions
6 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic · 4-5 -1.2u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 5-5 -0.3u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Claude Opus 4 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 125-128 -87.1u |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u |
62%
No
L
|
51%
Ethiopia Bunna -1
V
|
54%
Ethiopia Bunna +0.25
V
|
40%
Ethiopia Bunna / Ethiopia Bunna
V
|
58%
Ethiopia Bunna
L
|
55%
Under 2.5
L
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
62%
No Both Teams to Score is typically less frequent in Ethiopian league play due to lower overall goal volume and more unbalanced scoring distrib...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Ethiopia Bunna -1 Ethiopia Bunna's home advantage supports a slight edge in a -1 spread market, though this is a marginal lean. Both clubs appear to be of sim...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
54%
Ethiopia Bunna +0.25 In an Asian handicap, the 0.25 line (quarter-goal) reflects the marginal home advantage without overcommitting. Ethiopia Bunna is favored bu...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
40%
Ethiopia Bunna / Ethiopia Bunna Half-time/Full-time bets in Ethiopian football tend to reflect early dominance that persists. If Ethiopia Bunna wins the half-time period (l...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Ethiopia Bunna Ethiopia Bunna plays at home with typical home advantage in Ethiopian Premier League matches. Both clubs are regional rivals from the same c...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Under 2.5 Ethiopian Premier League matches historically feature lower goal output than major European leagues, with typical final scores around 1–2 go... |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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|
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market. |
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|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4 Heavy FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u |
51%
yes
W
|
48%
Ethiopia Bunna
V
|
52%
home-0.5
V
|
35%
home/home
V
|
52%
Ethiopia Bunna
L
|
53%
over
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
51%
yes Head-to-head encounters between these sides frequently produce goals at both ends. Neither defense is notably dominant. Training data throug...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Ethiopia Bunna Home side is expected to win but margin may be narrow given limited quality gap. Spread -1 requires at least a two-goal margin. Training dat...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
52%
home-0.5 Home advantage gives Ethiopia Bunna the edge on the standard Asian line. Away side rarely wins on the road. Training data through 2023.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
home/home Home team is likely to lead at half-time and maintain control. Low-scoring or late away goals remain possible. Training data through 2023.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
Ethiopia Bunna Ethiopia Bunna is the home side and historically the stronger of the two Ethiopian clubs. With no recent form or lineups available, default...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over Ethiopian league matches average slightly above 2.5 goals. Both teams tend to play open styles when facing each other. Training data through... |
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Gemini 2.5 Pro FlagshipGoogle · 4-7 -1.8u |
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u |
65%
No
L
|
55%
Sidama Bunna +1
V
|
55%
Sidama Bunna +0.5
V
|
35%
Draw / Draw
V
|
40%
Draw
L
|
70%
Under 2.5 Goals
L
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
65%
No Consistent with the general trend of low-scoring matches in the Ethiopian Premier League from my training data, it is common for at least on...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Sidama Bunna +1 Given the expectation of a draw or a very tight home win from my training data, it is unlikely Ethiopia Bunna will secure a victory by two o...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Sidama Bunna +0.5 Based on my training data and the expectation of a close match, Sidama Bunna is likely to either draw or secure a narrow victory. The +0.5 A...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
Draw / Draw In low-scoring leagues like the Ethiopian Premier League, as per my training data, matches often go into halftime level and remain that way...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
40%
Draw Based on my training data, matches in the Ethiopian Premier League are often tightly contested and low-scoring. Without specific recent form...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
70%
Under 2.5 Goals My training data indicates that the Ethiopian Premier League typically features defensive solidity and a struggle for goals. Historical data... |
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u |
52%
yes
W
|
48%
Sidama Bunna
V
|
50%
home_0.0
V
|
35%
draw_draw
V
|
45%
Ethiopia Bunna
L
|
55%
over
W
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
yes Without specific team offensive and defensive statistics, the prediction for both teams to score is based on a slight tendency observed in s...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Sidama Bunna This market implies Ethiopia Bunna is favored by one goal. Given the slight historical edge for Ethiopia Bunna but also the potential for a...
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
50%
home_0.0 The Asian Handicap of 0.0 indicates an even match with no perceived favorite. Given the lack of specific information, a perfectly balanced p...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
draw_draw With limited information and the expectation of a competitive match, a 'draw_draw' outcome is chosen as the most likely scenario. This refle...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Ethiopia Bunna Based on training data, Ethiopia Bunna has historically held a slight edge over Sidama Bunna in head-to-head encounters. While specific rece...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Given that specific recent form and goal-scoring data are not available, a general assumption based on typical league competitiveness is mad... |
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DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u |
60%
No
L
|
30%
Ethiopia Bunna -1
V
|
55%
Sidama Bunna +0.5
V
|
25%
Draw/Draw
V
|
45%
Ethiopia Bunna
L
|
55%
Under 2.5
L
|
|
|
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
No Leagues in this region often have one side failing to score. With Ethiopia Bunna at home, they are likely to keep a clean sheet or at least...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
30%
Ethiopia Bunna -1 A one-goal spread is steep given the unknown quality. Ethiopia Bunna may not win by multiple goals, so Sidama Bunna +1 is more probable.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Sidama Bunna +0.5 With home advantage but no strong evidence of dominance, Sidama Bunna covering a +0.5 handicap is slightly favored. Draw would also win for...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
25%
Draw/Draw Low-scoring, tight match likely leads to draw at half and full time. Other outcomes like Home/Home or Draw/Home are also plausible, but Draw...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
45%
Ethiopia Bunna Training data through 2025-09. Ethiopia Bunna is likely the stronger side historically in Ethiopian Premier League, but limited recent form...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Under 2.5 Ethiopian Premier League matches tend to be low-scoring based on historical data, average goals around 2.2 per game. With no standout attack... |
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|
Consensus |
No 4/6 |
Ethiopia Bunna -1 3/6 |
Sidama Bunna +0.5 2/6 |
Ethiopia Bunna / Ethiopia Bunna 1/6 |
Ethiopia Bunna 5/6 |
Under 2.5 3/6 |
|
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Bookmaker odds
12 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Ethiopia Bunna | Draw | Sidama Bunna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | 2.68 | — |
| Unibet | — | 2.95 | — |
| 10bet | — | 2.75 | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | 2.70 | — |
| Betano | — | 2.70 | — |
| Betfair | — | 2.88 | — |
| Betvictor | — | 2.75 | — |
| Dafabet | — | 2.75 | — |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.70 | — |
| Sbo | — | 2.59 | — |
| Superbet | — | 2.70 | — |
| William-hill | — | 2.60 | — |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | — | — |
| Unibet | — | — | — |
| 10bet | — | — | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | — | — |
| Betano | — | — | — |
| Betfair | — | — | — |
| Betvictor | — | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — | — |
| Sbo | — | — | — |
| Superbet | — | — | — |
| William-hill | — | — | — |
| Book | Ethiopia Bunna | Sidama Bunna |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | — | — |
| Unibet | — | — |
| 10bet | — | — |
| 1xbet ↗ | — | — |
| Betano | — | — |
| Betfair | — | — |
| Betvictor | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — |
| Sbo | — | — |
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Ethiopia Bunna Sidama Bunna
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