Céleste vs Maniema Union

Final: 1 – 3

Picks locked at Jun 13 · 06:39 GMT+0000 36 picks recorded · 18 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    aade442ab6408abf…

Sport: Sun, Jun 14 · 12:00 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 1534,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Ligue 1",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T10:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 10:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Maniema Union",
        "home": "Céleste"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T06:37:02+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

6 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Half-time / Full-time ?	Match winner ?	Both teams to score ?	Asian handicap ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	51% Céleste / Céleste V	68% Céleste L	58% No L	64% Céleste -0.5 V	55% Over 2.5 W	62% Céleste -1 V
Half-time / Full-time ? 51% Céleste / Céleste Céleste leading at half-time and full-time (1–0 HT → 2–0+ FT) is the modal outcome for a strong home favourite. However, without possession... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 68% Céleste Céleste are the established Ligue 1 side and strong home advantage at neutral or familiar venue on 14 Jun 2026. Maniema Union are a lesser-r... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 58% No Maniema Union, as visiting underdogs in Ligue 1, typically adopt defensive posture and prioritize avoiding heavy defeat rather than attackin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 64% Céleste -0.5 Asian handicap at -0.5 is a softer hurdle than spread -1 and reflects the margin most likely: a 1–0 or 2–0 clean home win. Céleste's Ligue 1... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 2.5 Ligue 1 matches typically average 2.5–3.2 goals per game; this fixture lacks dominant defensive reputation for either side. Céleste at home... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 62% Céleste -1 Céleste are strong home favourites with inherent Ligue 1 quality advantage. A -1 spread reflects expectation of a 2–0 or 3–1 type margin, wh... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	28% draw/home V	42% Céleste L	51% yes W	44% Céleste V	53% over W	39% Céleste V
Half-time / Full-time ? 28% draw/home Most probable path is cautious first half followed by home second-half improvement. Training data through 2025-09 shows draw/home as frequen... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 42% Céleste No head-to-head or form data available for these sides in Ligue 1 context. Training data through 2025-09 provides zero relevant matches, so... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 51% yes Both sides likely to attack without detailed defensive data. Training data through 2025-09 shows BTTS occurring in roughly half of similar l... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 44% Céleste Asian handicap leans slightly away given zero research inputs on current form or lineups. Training data through 2025-09 provides only generi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over Limited information on team styles forces a neutral lean toward over 2.5 goals. Training data through 2025-09 indicates average Ligue 1 scor... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 39% Céleste Home side given nominal edge but away spread favored due to complete absence of supporting stats. Training data through 2025-09 used for bas... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	25% Draw/Céleste V	45% Céleste L	55% No L	60% Maniema Union +0.5 V	60% Under 2.5 L	50% Maniema Union +1 V
Half-time / Full-time ? 25% Draw/Céleste Considering a slight home advantage for Céleste but also acknowledging that Maniema Union could hold their own initially, a scenario where t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 45% Céleste Based on general football knowledge, home teams often hold a slight advantage. Without live data or bookmaker consensus for these specific t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 55% No Following the rationale for an 'Under 2.5 goals' prediction, it is reasonable to expect that at least one team might fail to score. This is... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 60% Maniema Union +0.5 Similar to the spreads market, with no information on team performance, backing Maniema Union to either draw or win the match provides a mor... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% Under 2.5 Without specific team form, attacking or defensive statistics, a lower-scoring match is often a more conservative and plausible default pred... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Maniema Union +1 In the absence of concrete data supporting Céleste's ability to win by a margin of two or more goals, backing Maniema Union with a +1 goal h... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	20% draw_away V	45% Maniema Union L	55% yes W	45% Maniema Union -0.75 V	55% over W	40% Maniema Union V
Half-time / Full-time ? 20% draw_away I anticipate a tight first half where both teams are cautious, leading to a draw at halftime. Maniema Union has the stronger potential to fi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 45% Maniema Union Based on my training data, Maniema Union has a historical edge in this fixture. Céleste has shown some inconsistency in recent seasons, maki... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 55% yes Both Céleste and Maniema Union have demonstrated a tendency to concede goals while also possessing the capability to find the net. This sugg... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 45% Maniema Union -0.75 Maniema Union is the slightly stronger team and is expected to win, but covering a -0.75 handicap would require them to win by at least two... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Given the attacking potential of Maniema Union and Céleste's occasional defensive lapses, I anticipate a game with at least three goals. Bot... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 40% Maniema Union While Maniema Union is favored to win, Céleste is unlikely to be completely overwhelmed. A one-goal handicap is challenging for the away tea... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	40% Céleste/Céleste V	55% Céleste L	45% yes W	55% Céleste -0.5 V	50% over 2.5 W	35% Céleste -1 V
Half-time / Full-time ? 40% Céleste/Céleste Céleste likely leads at half due to home advantage and higher level, then holds on for full-time win. However, without live info on team mom... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Céleste Céleste home advantage is significant as they play in Ligue 1, while Maniema Union are from DR Congo's domestic league and may lack top-flig... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 45% yes Maniema Union may be defensively vulnerable against a higher-tier opponent, but Céleste might also concede if they push forward. Without cur... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Céleste -0.5 Céleste are expected to win given home advantage and league disparity, but the margin may be small. The -0.5 handicap aligns closely with th... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 50% over 2.5 Both teams are from leagues with moderate scoring averages, but a friendly or cross-league match can go either way. With no data on recent a... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 35% Céleste -1 Céleste is expected to win but covering a -1 goal spread requires a margin of 2. Given the uncertainty and lack of recent data, the probabil... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Draw/Céleste 2/6	Céleste 5/6	No 3/6	Céleste -0.5 2/6	Under 2.5 2/6	Maniema Union +1 2/6