Brazil vs Morocco
Final: 1 – 1
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
7a5b6dbff8a514e8…
- Sport
- Sat, Jun 13 · 22:04 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 356,
"sport": "football",
"venue": null,
"league": "FIFA World Cup",
"starts_at": "2026-06-13T22:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 22:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Morocco",
"home": "Brazil"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-12T17:45:21+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"away": 6.2,
"draw": 4,
"home": 1.69
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
"extra_markets": {
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.9,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 6,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.63,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.88,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.92,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.62,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.3,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.57,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.8,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.75,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.59,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.75,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.5,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.8,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.6,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.84,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.8,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.62,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 4,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 6,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.69,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.94,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 6.14,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.64,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.75,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.75,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.6,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.75,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.5,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.62,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.9,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.75,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.8,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 6,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.6,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.86,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.47,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.61,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.9,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.75,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.75,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.6,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.9,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.6,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.62,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.8,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.4,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.62,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.75,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.3,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.6,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.9,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.75,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.8,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.5,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.6,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.5,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.6,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.65,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 5.4,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.68,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.9,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 6,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.63,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 3.9,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 6,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.68,
"outcome": "Brazil"
}
],
"totals": [
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.82,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.06,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.77,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.98,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 3,
"price": 1.41,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 3,
"price": 2.95,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.79,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.75,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.75,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.05,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.75,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.74,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.04,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.77,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.07,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.65,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.93,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.82,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.06,
"outcome": "Over"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 1.77,
"outcome": "Under"
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"price": 2.08,
"outcome": "Over"
}
],
"h2h_lay": [
{
"point": null,
"price": 4.1,
"outcome": "Draw"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 6.4,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.71,
"outcome": "Brazil"
}
],
"spreads": [
{
"point": 1,
"price": 1.78,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": -1,
"price": 2.12,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": 1,
"price": 1.77,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": -1,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": 1,
"price": 1.78,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": -1,
"price": 2.08,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": 0.75,
"price": 2.1,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": -0.75,
"price": 1.88,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"price": 1.46,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"price": 2.77,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": 0.5,
"price": 2.27,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": -0.5,
"price": 1.63,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": 1,
"price": 1.72,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": -1,
"price": 2.13,
"outcome": "Brazil"
},
{
"point": 1,
"price": 1.78,
"outcome": "Morocco"
},
{
"point": -1,
"price": 2.12,
"outcome": "Brazil"
}
]
}
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
AI predictions
Featured · open arena6 markets · 10 models picked
Who picked what
15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
book: 2.5 · Over 48% |
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
|
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
book: Draw 38% |
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
book: Brazil -1.0 |
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic · 4-5 -1.2u |
54%
Under
~1.75
W
|
52%
No
~2.03
L
|
22%
Draw/Brazil
V
|
56%
Brazil
~1.69
V
|
58%
Morocco +1
~1.43
V
|
55%
Morocco +1
~1.43
V
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
54%
Under Market consensus consistently leans Under (1.74-1.82 vs Over 2.04-2.10), reflecting World Cup openers' typically cagey nature and Morocco's...
Odds: 1.75
Edge: -3.1%
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
No Brazil's defensive core of Alisson, Marquinhos and Gabriel remains elite, and Morocco are missing key attacker Ez Abde plus dealing with Sou...
Odds: 2.03
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
22%
Draw/Brazil World Cup openers between a heavy favorite and a defensively organized underdog often feature cagey first halves with the favorite breaking...
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
56%
Brazil Brazil are deserved favorites with superior individual quality across midfield and attack, even if Neymar is listed as game-time doubtful wi...
Odds: 1.69
Edge: -3.2%
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
58%
Morocco +1 Covering -1 requires Brazil to win by 2+ goals, which is a tall order against a Morocco side that knocked out Portugal and Spain in 2022 and...
Odds: 1.43
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Morocco +1 Same logic as the European handicap: a 1-goal Brazil win pushes (full refund) and any draw or Morocco win wins the bet. Morocco will make th...
Odds: 1.43
🔍 researched
4 sources cited
|
|||||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 5-5 -0.3u |
56%
Under 2.5
~1.84
W
|
55%
Yes
~1.98
W
|
22%
Draw/Brazil
V
|
50%
Brazil
~1.69
V
|
58%
Morocco +1
~1.43
V
|
55%
Morocco +0.75
~1.70
V
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
56%
Under 2.5 World Cup openers historically tend to be cagey affairs with both teams cautious not to lose. Morocco's defensive record since 2023 is outst...
Odds: 1.84
🔍 researched
12 sources cited
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
Yes Brazil have conceded in all of their last 5 friendlies (7 goals total), including defensive errors from Marquinhos against Egypt. Morocco ha...
Odds: 1.98
🔍 researched
12 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
22%
Draw/Brazil Both teams are likely to be cautious in the first half of this World Cup opener, with Morocco's defensive organization making an early Brazi...
🔍 researched
12 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
50%
Brazil Brazil have superior attacking talent with Vinicius Jr, Raphinha, and Bruno Guimaraes, plus Ancelotti's tactical pedigree, making them right...
Odds: 1.69
Edge: -9.2%
🔍 researched
12 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
58%
Morocco +1 Morocco's exceptional record of 33W-10D-2L in 45 games since 2023 demonstrates they rarely lose by multiple goals. Their 2022 WC semifinal e...
Odds: 1.43
🔍 researched
12 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Morocco +0.75 At the -0.75 Asian handicap line, Brazil need to win by 2+ goals for a full payout and by exactly 1 for a half-win. Given Morocco's defensiv...
Odds: 1.70
🔍 researched
12 sources cited
|
|||||||
|
Claude Opus 4 FlagshipAnthropic |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market. |
|||||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 125-128 -87.1u |
60%
Under
~1.82
W
|
58%
No
~2.03
L
|
28%
Draw/Brazil
V
|
61%
Brazil
~1.69
V
|
55%
Morocco
~2.21
L
|
55%
Morocco +0.75
~1.70
V
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
Under Morocco are historically one of the most defensively disciplined nations, and their loss of Aguerd does not erase a deeply organized backlin...
Odds: 1.82
Edge: +5.0%
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
58%
No Morocco's defensive solidity and the loss of Morocco's attacking outlet Ezzalzouli both point toward a Morocco side that may struggle to sco...
Odds: 2.03
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
Draw/Brazil In tightly contested World Cup openers, halftime draws are extremely common as teams feel each other out and Morocco are expert at defending...
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
61%
Brazil Brazil enter as heavy favorites with elite stars in Vinicius Jr., Raphinha, and Bruno Guimarães under Carlo Ancelotti, though they are weake...
Odds: 1.69
Edge: +1.8%
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Morocco For Brazil to cover -1 they must win by 2 or more goals, which requires a comfortable demolition of a defensively elite Morocco side — even...
Odds: 2.21
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Morocco +0.75 The +0.75 Asian Handicap for Morocco (half-push on a draw, full win if Morocco draw or win) offers an appealing risk profile given Morocco's...
Odds: 1.70
🔍 researched
7 sources cited
|
|||||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u |
57%
Under 2.5
~1.83
W
|
62%
No
~1.76
L
|
55%
Brazil / Brazil
V
|
68%
Brazil
~1.69
V
|
65%
Brazil -1
~2.05
V
|
63%
Brazil -0.75
~1.62
V
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
57%
Under 2.5 The totals market shows Under 2.5 priced at ~1.77–1.82 versus Over 2.5 at ~2.05–2.10, implying ~56% probability for Under. While Brazil's at...
Odds: 1.83
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
62%
No Brazil's defensive solidity under their coaching setup typically limits opponents to low xG. Morocco's attacking threat is moderate—they sco...
Odds: 1.76
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
55%
Brazil / Brazil Half-time/full-time Brazil/Brazil is the most likely outcome (~55%), reflecting Brazil's expected dominance from kickoff. Brazil should cont...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
68%
Brazil Brazil are heavy favorites at 1.69 odds, reflecting their status as two-time World Cup winners with superior squad depth and recent tourname...
Odds: 1.69
Edge: +8.8%
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
65%
Brazil -1 Brazil -1 at 2.12 odds implies ~47% probability; the market is pricing this defensively given Morocco's defensive strength. However, Brazil'...
Odds: 2.05
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
63%
Brazil -0.75 Asian handicap -0.75 (also common as Brazil -0.5 or -1 depending on bookmaker) offers a softer entry than outright -1. Brazil's win probabil...
Odds: 1.62
|
|||||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market. |
|||||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u |
60%
Under
~1.82
W
|
58%
No
~2.03
L
|
48%
Draw/Brazil
V
|
66%
Brazil
~1.69
V
|
56%
Morocco
~2.21
L
|
58%
Brazil -0.75
~2.43
V
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
Under Bookmakers slightly favour Under 2.5 and tactical context supports a lower-scoring game: Morocco historically set up compactly and excel def...
Odds: 1.82
Edge: +5.0%
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
58%
No Given Morocco's defensive organisation and Brazil's tendency under Ancelotti to control possession, a clean sheet for one side (most likely...
Odds: 2.03
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
48%
Draw/Brazil A common pattern for favourites in tournament openers is a tight first half (feeling out) followed by the stronger team breaking through in...
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
66%
Brazil Brazil arrive as clear pre-match favorites with a deeper attacking pool and recent squad continuity while Morocco have late fitness doubts t...
Odds: 1.69
Edge: +6.8%
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
56%
Morocco A -1 spread requires Brazil to win by two or more; while Brazil are favourites to win, the probability they do so by 2+ is materially lower...
Odds: 2.21
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
58%
Brazil -0.75 Brazil -0.75 (win and cover by 1 = half loss/half push; win by 2+ = full win) balances upside while reflecting Brazil's overall superiority;...
Odds: 2.43
🔍 researched
6 sources cited
|
|||||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u |
60%
Over
~2.06
L
|
55%
Yes
~1.98
W
|
65%
Brazil/Brazil
V
|
75%
Brazil
~1.69
V
|
70%
Brazil
~2.12
L
|
70%
Brazil -1
~3.32
V
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
Over Both teams have potent attacking options, suggesting a high-scoring match is likely.
Odds: 2.06
Edge: +11.5%
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
Yes Both teams have shown the ability to score in recent matches, making it likely that both will find the net.
Odds: 1.98
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
65%
Brazil/Brazil Brazil's attacking strength and Morocco's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a strong start and finish for Brazil.
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
75%
Brazil Brazil's superior squad depth and attacking prowess, coupled with Morocco's recent injury setbacks, make them the favorites to win this enco...
Odds: 1.69
Edge: +15.8%
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
70%
Brazil Brazil's attacking strength and Morocco's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a comfortable win for Brazil.
Odds: 2.12
Edge: +22.8%
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
70%
Brazil -1 Brazil's superior squad depth and attacking prowess, coupled with Morocco's recent injury setbacks, make them the favorites to win this enco...
Odds: 3.32
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
|
|||||||
|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market. |
|||||||
Grok 4 Heavy FlagshipXai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market. |
|||||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u |
53%
Under
~1.82
W
|
58%
No
~2.03
L
|
41%
Brazil/Brazil
V
|
62%
Brazil
~1.69
V
|
55%
Brazil
~2.12
L
|
54%
Brazil -1
~3.32
V
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Under Brazil often controls games without excessive scoring against mid-tier opposition. Odds slightly favor Under 2.5 at 1.75-1.82. World Cup ope...
Odds: 1.82
Edge: -1.9%
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
58%
No Brazil defense usually keeps clean sheets vs Morocco level sides. Morocco struggles to score against elite backlines. Odds implied probabili...
Odds: 2.03
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
41%
Brazil/Brazil Brazil expected to lead at half and close out the match. Dominant sides frequently achieve HT/FT same team. Odds and historical data favor B...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Brazil Brazil remains the stronger side on paper with superior squad depth and historical dominance. Morocco showed promise in 2022 but lacks consi...
Odds: 1.69
Edge: +2.8%
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Brazil Brazil expected to win by 1+ goals given talent gap. Spreads at -1 priced around 2.1 reflect this edge. Morocco rarely covers against South...
Odds: 2.12
Edge: +7.8%
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
54%
Brazil -1 Brazil favored to win by margin of 1 goal or more. Asian lines around -0.75 to -1 reflect this. Morocco has defensive resilience but not eno...
Odds: 3.32
|
|||||||
Gemini 2.5 Pro FlagshipGoogle · 4-7 -1.8u |
56%
Under
~1.75
W
|
55%
No
~2.03
L
|
— |
58%
Brazil
~1.69
V
|
52%
Morocco
~2.21
L
|
— | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
56%
Under Both teams are missing key offensive players, with Neymar out for Brazil and Abde Ezzalzouli absent for Morocco. This significantly blunts b...
Odds: 1.75
Edge: -1.1%
7 sources cited
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
No Brazil's defense, featuring Alisson, Marquinhos, and Gabriel, remains world-class and should be able to contain a Moroccan attack missing on...
Odds: 2.03
7 sources cited
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Brazil Despite Neymar's absence, Brazil possesses superior squad depth and attacking talent with players like Vinicius Junior and Raphinha. Morocco...
Odds: 1.69
Edge: -1.2%
7 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Morocco Without Neymar, Brazil's ability to dominate and win by multiple goals is diminished. Morocco, despite their own injuries, proved in 2022 th...
Odds: 2.21
7 sources cited
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market. |
|||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u |
58%
Under 2.5
~1.84
W
|
60%
No
~1.76
L
|
35%
Brazil/Brazil
V
|
55%
Brazil
~1.74
V
|
65%
Morocco +1
~1.95
V
|
55%
Morocco +0.75
~1.70
V
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Under 2.5 Morocco's strategy often revolves around robust defensive organization and counter-attacking, which proved highly effective in limiting oppo...
Odds: 1.84
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
60%
No Given Morocco's defensive prowess and their tendency for low-scoring games, it's plausible that at least one team will fail to score. Brazil...
Odds: 1.76
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
35%
Brazil/Brazil Brazil's overall quality and attacking prowess mean they are capable of asserting dominance and taking a lead by halftime, which they are th...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Brazil Based on training data through early 2023, Brazil consistently possesses superior individual talent and a strong historical World Cup pedigr...
Odds: 1.74
Edge: -2.5%
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
65%
Morocco +1 Morocco proved its exceptional resilience and defensive fortitude against top teams in the 2022 World Cup. While Brazil is expected to win,...
Odds: 1.95
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
Morocco +0.75 Similar to the spreads market, Morocco's defensive strength makes it difficult for even elite teams like Brazil to win by a large margin. A...
Odds: 1.70
|
|||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u |
— | — | — | — | — | — | |
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market. |
|||||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u |
53%
Under
~1.82
W
|
55%
No
~2.03
L
|
20%
Draw_Brazil
V
|
62%
Brazil
~1.69
V
|
55%
Morocco
~2.21
L
|
54%
Morocco +1.0
~1.43
V
|
|
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Under Brazil often controls possession but can be patient against deep defenses, while Morocco under Regragui is compact and hard to break down. W...
Odds: 1.82
Edge: -1.9%
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
No Morocco's strength is defense; they kept clean sheets against Spain and Portugal in 2022. Brazil may struggle to score multiple goals agains...
Odds: 2.03
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
20%
Draw_Brazil Brazil often starts slowly in World Cup openers; Morocco will aim to hold out in first half. A goalless or 1-1 draw at half-time is plausibl...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
62%
Brazil Brazil is a traditional World Cup powerhouse with deep squad talent, while Morocco has strong defensive organization but less attacking thre...
Odds: 1.69
Edge: +2.8%
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Morocco Brazil -1 handicap means they must win by 2+ goals. Given Morocco's defensive solidity and Brazil's occasional struggles against low blocks,...
Odds: 2.21
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
54%
Morocco +1.0 Asian handicap +1.0 means push if Brazil wins by exactly 1, win if draw or Morocco win. Given the expectation of a tight match, Morocco +1.0...
Odds: 1.43
|
|||||||
|
Consensus |
Under 6/10 |
No 8/10 |
Draw/Brazil 4/9 |
Brazil 10/10 |
Morocco 4/10 |
Morocco +0.75 3/9 |
|
|
Bookmaker line |
2.5 · Over 48% |
— |
— |
Draw 38% |
Brazil -1.0 |
— |
|
Polymarket: tournament odds
What real money is betting on each team to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy.
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Bookmaker odds
51 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Brazil | Draw | Morocco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 5.69 | 1.28 | 10.08 |
| Draftkings ↗ | 18.00 | 1.15 | 31.00 |
| Fanduel ↗ | 14.00 | 1.02 | 28.00 |
| Betmgm | 3.90 | 1.50 | 7.50 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Betfair Exchange UK | 2.00 | 1.18 | 2.10 |
| Betfair Exchange EU | 2.00 | 1.21 | 2.10 |
| Betanysports | 1.69 | 3.70 | 5.70 |
| Betclic FR | 13.00 | 1.04 | 22.00 |
| Betfair UK | 1.62 | 3.10 | 5.00 |
| Betfred | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| BetOnline | 1.69 | 3.80 | 5.72 |
| Betrivers | 23.00 | 1.04 | 10.50 |
| Betsson | 21.00 | 1.02 | 29.00 |
| Betus | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| Betvictor | 10.50 | 1.15 | 9.00 |
| Betway | 12.00 | 1.08 | 17.00 |
| Bovada | 11.00 | 1.08 | 19.00 |
| Boylesports | 17.00 | 1.06 | 26.00 |
| Casumo | 25.00 | 1.07 | 12.00 |
| Codere It | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.40 |
| Coolbet | 13.00 | 1.09 | 23.00 |
| Coral | 17.00 | 1.04 | 21.00 |
| Everygame | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.75 |
| Fanatics | 23.00 | 1.06 | 16.00 |
| Grosvenor | 21.00 | 1.05 | 11.00 |
| Gtbets | 1.69 | 3.64 | 5.48 |
| Ladbrokes | 15.00 | 1.05 | 21.00 |
| Leovegas | 23.00 | 1.04 | 10.50 |
| Leovegas Se | 23.00 | 1.03 | 10.50 |
| Livescorebet | 23.00 | 1.05 | 10.50 |
| LowVig | 1.69 | 3.80 | 5.72 |
| Marathonbet | 5.95 | 1.22 | 8.00 |
| Matchbook | 9.80 | 1.18 | 11.00 |
| MyBookie | 4.50 | 1.22 | 8.00 |
| Nordicbet | 17.00 | 1.03 | 29.00 |
| Onexbet | 1.68 | 3.87 | 5.61 |
| Paddy Power | 15.00 | 1.03 | 34.00 |
| Pmu | 25.00 | 1.05 | 11.50 |
| Skybet | 15.00 | 1.04 | 34.00 |
| Smarkets | 3.65 | 2.64 | 25.00 |
| Sport888 | 15.00 | 1.05 | 23.00 |
| Tipico | 13.00 | 1.04 | 22.00 |
| Unibet | 1.68 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Unibet Nl | 25.00 | 1.07 | 12.00 |
| Unibet Se | 25.00 | 1.07 | 12.00 |
| Unibet | 11.00 | 1.08 | 20.00 |
| Virginbet | 23.00 | 1.05 | 10.50 |
| Williamhill | 13.00 | 1.06 | 19.00 |
| Winamax | 13.50 | 1.05 | 19.00 |
| Winamax | 11.00 | 1.09 | 18.00 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.0 | 1.92 | 1.96 |
| Betmgm | 2.5 | 2.40 | 1.57 |
| William Hill | 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.70 |
| Betanysports | 2.3 | 1.80 | 2.05 |
| BetOnline | 2.5 | 2.25 | 1.70 |
| Betrivers | 2.5 | 8.00 | 1.04 |
| Betsson | 2.0 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
| Betus | 2.5 | 2.25 | 1.69 |
| Bovada | 2.3 | 1.82 | 2.02 |
| Casumo | 1.5 | 1.36 | 2.95 |
| Codere It | 2.5 | 2.09 | 1.63 |
| Coolbet | 2.0 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
| Grosvenor | 1.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
| Gtbets | 2.5 | 2.12 | 1.69 |
| Leovegas | 1.5 | 1.33 | 2.88 |
| LowVig | 2.5 | 2.25 | 1.70 |
| Matchbook | 2.5 | 50.00 | 1.01 |
| MyBookie | 2.5 | 3.60 | 1.18 |
| Nordicbet | 2.0 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
| Onexbet | 2.5 | 2.16 | 1.74 |
| Pmu | 1.5 | 1.33 | 2.88 |
| Unibet Nl | 2.5 | 8.00 | 1.07 |
| Unibet Se | 1.5 | 1.36 | 2.95 |
| Book | Brazil | Morocco |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -1.0 @ 2.15 | 0.0 @ 2.77 |
| Betanysports | -1.0 @ 2.30 | +0.8 @ 1.95 |
| BetOnline | -1.0 @ 2.32 | +1.0 @ 1.67 |
| Betus | -1.0 @ 2.40 | +0.5 @ 2.35 |
| Bovada | -0.8 @ 1.87 | -0.3 @ 1.95 |
| Gtbets | -0.5 @ 1.63 | +0.5 @ 2.19 |
| LowVig | -1.0 @ 2.32 | +1.0 @ 1.67 |
| Matchbook | -0.8 @ 1.95 | -0.5 @ 2.36 |
| MyBookie | -1.0 @ 2.13 | -0.5 @ 2.20 |
| Onexbet | -1.5 @ 2.82 | +1.5 @ 1.43 |
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Brazil Morocco
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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6 tool calls · 3 sources
3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
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18 tool calls · 7 sources
7 citations captured — unlock with Pro
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42 tool calls · 6 sources
6 citations captured — unlock with Pro
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12 tool calls · 4 sources
4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
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30 tool calls · 12 sources
12 citations captured — unlock with Pro
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0 tool calls · 7 sources
7 citations captured — unlock with Pro
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0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
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