Aktobe vs Altay

Final: 2 – 0

Picks locked at Jun 13 · 07:38 GMT+0000 36 picks recorded · 18 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    a1ae3a55cb394256…

Sport: Sun, Jun 14 · 15:00 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 1666,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": "Koblandy Batyr Stadium",
        "league": "Premier League",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T15:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 15:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Altay",
        "home": "Aktobe"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T07:36:06+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

6 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Spread ?	Both teams to score ?	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Asian handicap ?	Half-time / Full-time ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	52% Aktobe -1 V	65% No W	58% Aktobe W	62% Under 2.5 W	58% Aktobe -0.5 V	42% Aktobe / Aktobe V
Spread ? 52% Aktobe -1 Aktobe must win by 2+ goals to cover -1 spread. Home advantage and historical domestic standing suggest slight edge, but the -1 line is chal... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 65% No BTTS requires both defences to be broken; Kazakhstan's domestic clubs typically play with compact, organised defending. Lower-tier clubs oft... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 58% Aktobe Aktobe plays at home (Koblandy Batyr Stadium) which typically confers a 3–5% advantage in Kazakhstan's football environment. Both clubs are... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 62% Under 2.5 Kazakhstani domestic league football typically features lower-scoring matches (1.8–2.2 goals per game on average). Neither Aktobe nor Altay... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 58% Aktobe -0.5 Asian handicap -0.5 (half goal) gives Aktobe a near-level footing on a neutral field. Home advantage (typically 0.3–0.5 goal equivalent) sup... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 42% Aktobe / Aktobe HT/FT requires Aktobe to lead at half and full time, a narrow outcome in low-scoring matches. Home advantage and play style favour early Akt... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Spread ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Spread ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	48% home_-1_yes V	51% yes L	52% Aktobe L	55% over L	55% home_-0.5 V	35% home_home V
Spread ? 48% home_-1_yes Aktobe can win by multiple goals against weaker visitors but draws remain possible. Training data through 2025-09 shows home win margins oft... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 51% yes Both teams have shown attacking intent in past encounters with goals at both ends. Home venue typically allows open play. Training data thro... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 52% Aktobe Aktobe historically stronger at home in domestic fixtures based on pre-2025 results. Altay lacks consistent away pedigree against top-half s... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Matches involving Aktobe tend to produce goals when they control possession at home. Limited data on Altay suggests open games. Training dat... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% home_-0.5 Home advantage points to Aktobe covering a small handicap. Away side struggles on the road per historical patterns. Training data through 20... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 35% home_home Aktobe often secures leads by half-time and holds on. Draw or away half-time outcomes less frequent at this venue. Training data through 202... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	60% Aktobe -1 V	65% No W	75% Aktobe W	60% Under 2.5 W	65% Aktobe -1.0 V	68% Aktobe/Aktobe V
Spread ? 60% Aktobe -1 Aktobe is predicted to win this match convincingly. A -1 spread suggests they need to win by at least two goals for the pick to fully succee... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 65% No Given Aktobe's expected dominance and Altay's historical struggles, it is more likely that Aktobe will keep a clean sheet at home. Altay wil... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 75% Aktobe Based on my training data up to its last update, Aktobe is historically a stronger team in the Kazakhstan Premier League, often competing fo... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% Under 2.5 While Aktobe is strong at home, matches in the Kazakhstan Premier League often tend to be lower-scoring. Aktobe might secure a win with a 1-... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 65% Aktobe -1.0 Similar to the spread, Aktobe -1.0 Asian Handicap offers a good return, with a win by one goal resulting in a push. Considering Aktobe's sig... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 68% Aktobe/Aktobe Strong home teams like Aktobe typically assert dominance early in matches. It is highly probable they will lead at half-time and maintain th... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	52% Altay V	58% yes L	55% Aktobe L	60% over L	53% Altay +0.25 V	40% Draw - Home V
Spread ? 52% Altay Given Aktobe is slightly favored to win (h2h market), a -1 handicap would mean they'd need to win by at least two goals. It's more probable... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 58% yes Both teams are likely to score in a competitive Premier League fixture. While one team might have a slight edge, it's probable that both Akt... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Aktobe Based on general knowledge of football league dynamics, the home team typically has an advantage due to crowd support and familiarity with t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% over Premier League matches often feature a good number of goals. Assuming a standard competitive league, it's more likely than not that there wi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 53% Altay +0.25 With Aktobe being the nominal favorite at home, a small handicap favoring Altay seems reasonable. This pick suggests a slight lean towards A... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 40% Draw - Home While Aktobe is expected to win, the first half could be a cagey affair. A common scenario is for the home team to secure the win in the sec... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	55% Altay V	60% no W	55% Aktobe L	50% under 2.5 W	60% away +1.0 V	30% home/home V
Spread ? 55% Altay Aktobe are not strong enough to cover a -1 spread against any opponent. Altay losing by more than one goal is unlikely. The away team on the... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 60% no Altay typically struggle to score away from home, and Aktobe's defense is decent. The most likely outcome is that at least one team fails to... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Aktobe Aktobe are playing at home in Koblandy Batyr Stadium, where they have strong historical form. Altay are generally weaker on the road and hav... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 50% under 2.5 Both teams are not known for high-scoring games in the Kazakh Premier League. Historical head-to-head matches often feature few goals. With... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 60% away +1.0 Altay +1.0 covers if they lose by exactly one or better. Given the even matchup, that's a solid bet. Aktobe rarely dominate by two or more a... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 30% home/home Home/home is the single most likely HT/FT outcome given home advantage, but still low confidence because many matches see early leads slip.... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Aktobe -1 3/6	No 3/6	Aktobe 6/6	Under 2.5 2/6	Aktobe -0.5 2/6	Aktobe/Aktobe 2/6