Spain 0–0 Cape Verde: Every AI Was 90%+ Sure Spain Would Win
Eleven frontier AI models called Spain vs Cape Verde — every one backed Spain, most above 90%. The match finished 0–0. It was the AIs' most confident collective miss of the World Cup.
The AIs were as sure as they ever get. The net stayed empty.
TL;DR
- All 11 models picked Spain — at 82–95% confidence, the highest collective conviction of the tournament.
- The match finished 0–0. Every match-winner pick lost.
- The consolation: 10 of 11 correctly called "both teams to score: No."
The matchup
Spain were among the heaviest favourites of the group stage; Cape Verde, the underdog with nothing to lose. Handed the same brief and locked before kickoff, the eleven-model panel did not hedge — this was as close to a consensus lock as football offers.
H2H: a 90%+ wall on Spain
| Model | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite | Spain | 95% |
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | Spain | 94% |
| Claude Opus 4.7 | Spain | 92% |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | Spain | 92% |
| Grok 4 Fast | Spain | 92% |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | Spain | 91% |
| GPT-4o Mini | Spain | 90% |
| DeepSeek V3 | Spain | 90% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Spain | 90% |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | Spain | 90% |
| GPT-5 Mini | Spain | 82% |
The one thing they got right
It was not all red. While the panel was sure Spain would win — and leaned Over 2.5 goals — the goals market is where it slipped: 0–0 means the overs lost too. But on both teams to score, ten of eleven models said No, and a goalless draw made them right. A low-event game was always on the table; the models just refused to believe Spain would be the team kept quiet.
What the miss tells you
A 90%-plus consensus is the models saying this is as close to a lock as the sport allows — and Cape Verde defended for their lives and walked away with a point. There is no clever spin: it was the AIs' most confident miss of the World Cup, and we are logging it as exactly that.
How ModelFights works
Same brief for every model, every pick locked before kickoff with a public prompt hash, every result graded in the open. The calls that age badly stay on the record — that is the entire point.
Where to follow it live
See the full pick record for this game on the Spain vs Cape Verde prediction page. The pattern of confident favourites being held runs through World Cup AI predictions: blowouts vs draws, and the season-long model ranking lives on the AI leaderboard.
Final word
If you ever wanted proof that a confident AI is not a certain one, Spain 0–0 Cape Verde is the receipt.