Ulaanbaatar vs Khoromkhon

Final: 7 – 0

Picks locked at Jun 13 · 06:43 GMT+0000 36 picks recorded · 18 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    bebb7e1b703d7134…

Sport: Sun, Jun 14 · 10:00 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 1533,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Premier League",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T10:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 10:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Khoromkhon",
        "home": "Ulaanbaatar"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T06:43:30+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

6 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Both teams to score ?	Asian handicap ?	Spread ?	Half-time / Full-time ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	58% Ulaanbaatar W	62% Under 2.5 L	60% No W	56% Ulaanbaatar -0.5 V	52% Ulaanbaatar -1 V	44% Ulaanbaatar/Ulaanbaatar V
Match winner ? 58% Ulaanbaatar Both teams appear to be from Mongolia's football system; without live fixture data, current season form, or recent head-to-head records, I r... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 62% Under 2.5 Mongolian domestic football has historically lower scoring rates than European top leagues, partly due to technical quality variance and sma... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 60% No Given the likely low-scoring nature of Mongolian domestic matches and absence of injury or team-form data suggesting high attacking threat f... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 56% Ulaanbaatar -0.5 The -0.5 line (half-goal) reflects mild home favouritism without over-committing. It balances capital advantage and home field with the unce... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Ulaanbaatar -1 Home advantage in a low-scoring league suggests a modest victory margin. A 1–0 or 2–1 Ulaanbaatar win is a reasonable modal outcome given ca... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 44% Ulaanbaatar/Ulaanbaatar Half-time/full-time outcomes are inherently fragmented; Ulaanbaatar leading and winning at full-time is the most likely scenario but still c... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	72% Ulaanbaatar L	55% over W	58% no W	53% home_-1.5 V	61% home_-1 V	48% home/home V
Match winner ? 72% Ulaanbaatar Ulaanbaatar is historically the dominant side in Mongolian football and should overpower Khoromkhon at home. Training data through 2025 show... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Mongolian league matches average around 3 goals when top sides play weaker opponents. Ulaanbaatar's attacking style tends to produce open ga... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 58% no Khoromkhon rarely scores against stronger sides while Ulaanbaatar keeps clean sheets in most home fixtures. Training knowledge indicates low... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 53% home_-1.5 Quality gap suggests Ulaanbaatar should win by two or more goals often enough to justify the -1.5 line. Training data through 2025 supports... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 61% home_-1 The expected margin favors Ulaanbaatar by more than one goal given historical results. Training data through 2025 shows the home side coveri... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 48% home/home Ulaanbaatar typically takes control early and maintains leads against weaker sides. Training data through 2025 shows home/home as the most f... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	65% Ulaanbaatar W	60% Over 2.5 Goals W	55% No W	50% Ulaanbaatar -1.0 V	50% Ulaanbaatar -1 V	40% Home/Home V
Match winner ? 65% Ulaanbaatar Based on historical performance captured in my training data (through 2025-09), Ulaanbaatar has consistently been a stronger team in the Mon... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% Over 2.5 Goals Matches in the Mongolian Premier League, especially when a stronger team like Ulaanbaatar plays a comparatively weaker opponent, tend to be... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 55% No While Ulaanbaatar is expected to score, their historical dominance often includes keeping clean sheets against weaker opposition. Khoromkhon... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 50% Ulaanbaatar -1.0 Assuming an Asian Handicap line of Ulaanbaatar -1.0, a win by two or more goals for Ulaanbaatar is a strong possibility given their historic... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Ulaanbaatar -1 Given Ulaanbaatar's historical superiority, they are very capable of winning by a margin of two goals or more against Khoromkhon. While a si... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 40% Home/Home Ulaanbaatar, as the historically stronger side, is expected to assert their dominance early and maintain it throughout the match. It's highl... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	55% Ulaanbaatar L	60% over W	55% yes L	50% Ulaanbaatar V	50% Ulaanbaatar V	40% draw-home V
Match winner ? 55% Ulaanbaatar Without specific match data or bookmaker odds, I am relying on general knowledge. Ulaanbaatar is typically a stronger team than Khoromkhon i... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% over Given the lack of specific team information, I'm defaulting to a common outcome in football matches where offensive play can often lead to o... Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 55% yes In many football leagues, matches often see both teams scoring. Without specific defensive or offensive statistics for these teams, I'm lean... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 50% Ulaanbaatar Without any specific handicap line or team data, predicting the Asian Handicap market is impossible. I am assigning equal probability to bot... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Ulaanbaatar As I don't have precise team strengths or current form, predicting against a handicap of -1 goal is highly speculative. I'll assign equal pr... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 40% draw-home Given the uncertainty and lack of specific data, predicting the Half-Time/Full-Time market is highly speculative. I've assigned a slightly h... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	70% Ulaanbaatar W	65% Over 2.5 W	55% Yes L	60% Ulaanbaatar -1.0 V	60% Ulaanbaatar -1 V	55% Ulaanbaatar/Ulaanbaatar V
Match winner ? 70% Ulaanbaatar Ulaanbaatar historically dominates Khoromkhon in the Mongolian Premier League. Recent form is not available but home advantage and squad dep... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 65% Over 2.5 Ulaanbaatar usually scores multiple goals and Khoromkhon can concede. Average goal totals in this fixture often exceed 2.5. Unlock reasoning · Pro Both teams to score ? 55% Yes Khoromkhon may occasionally score while Ulaanbaatar is likely to net. But clean sheets are possible for Ulaanbaatar. Slight edge to both sco... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 60% Ulaanbaatar -1.0 Similar reasoning to -1 spread. Expect Ulaanbaatar to win by a margin that covers the handicap. Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 60% Ulaanbaatar -1 Ulaanbaatar should win by at least 2 goals given their strength. But margin of victory is uncertain. Slight confidence. Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 55% Ulaanbaatar/Ulaanbaatar Ulaanbaatar likely to lead at half and extend lead in second half. But if they score later, could be draw at half. Most probable outcome is... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Ulaanbaatar 6/6	Under 2.5 2/6	No 3/6	Ulaanbaatar -0.5 2/6	Ulaanbaatar -1 4/6	Ulaanbaatar/Ulaanbaatar 2/6