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MLB
Awaiting result · 1002h 59m ago
San Diego Padres logo

San Diego PadresvsToronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Toronto Blue Jays

Both teams enter with identical 2–3 records over their last five matches, but Toronto has outscored San Diego 20–12 in that span, suggesting...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Toronto Blue Jays

Probable-starter matchup (Trey Yesavage for TOR vs Walker Buehler for SD) favors the Blue Jays — Yesavage has been the steadier, lower-ERA s...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have a slightly better overall record and have shown more consistent performance in recent games compared to the San D...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% San Diego Padres

Both teams enter with identical 2-3 records in last 5 but San Diego allows fewer runs at home. Training data through 2025-09 shows Padres ho...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% San Diego Padres

Based on recent form showing the Padres with a slightly better run differential in their last five games and the inherent home-field advanta...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Toronto Blue Jays

Without current starting pitcher information or specific venue factors, this prediction leans towards the away team due to their slightly be...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% San Diego Padres

Despite both teams having similar recent records (2-3), the Padres have home field advantage at Petco Park, which is pitcher-friendly. The B...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over

Combined scoring in the last five matches shows 40 total runs (12 by home Padres, 28 by away Jays), averaging 8.0 runs per team per game. Bo...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% over

Although Petco Park is normally pitcher-friendly, Buehler's 2026 run prevention has been inconsistent and he has produced hard contact/HR ev...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have struggled offensively, averaging around 3.9 runs per game. However, given the variability in their recent performances, ther...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% under

Low run totals from San Diego's recent games (12 scored, 18 conceded) and neutral rest suggest a pitcher's duel environment. Training knowle...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% under_8.5

The average runs per game for both teams combined in their last five outings suggest a total below 8.5, particularly influenced by the Padre...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

Given the indeterminate nature of the starting pitchers and potential for offensive output, I am predicting over 2.5 total runs. My training...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Under 8

Petco Park is known for being pitcher-friendly, which should suppress run scoring. Both teams have shown moderate offensive output recently,...

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Spread

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Toronto's offensive edge (20 runs vs San Diego's 12 in the last five games) supports a slight lean toward covering a -1.5 spread. However, b...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% Toronto Blue Jays

Given the starter advantage (Yesavage) and model projections that slightly favor Toronto in a close game, the Blue Jays are the safer cover...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

Considering the Blue Jays' slightly better overall record and recent performance, they are favored to cover the -1 spread in this matchup.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Padres' better defensive metrics at home give them the narrow run-line edge despite similar win-loss records. Toronto's recent offensive out...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Toronto Blue Jays +1.5

MLB games are frequently close, often decided by one run. Despite the Padres being slightly favored to win, the Blue Jays' offensive capabil...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Toronto Blue Jays

The spread of -1 for the away team is chosen based on a slight perceived edge from their marginally higher scoring output in recent games. T...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% San Diego Padres -1.5

While the Padres have home field and a slight edge, the game is expected to be close. The Blue Jays have a potent offense that can keep it w...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
San Diego Padres 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Over 4.5

Early-inning scoring in the last five games shows 40 total runs, many of which typically come in the first five frames. Both offenses have s...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Toronto Blue Jays

First-five innings favor the Blue Jays because Trey Yesavage has shown the ability to limit runs through the early-to-middle innings, while...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' starting lineup has shown more consistency in the first five innings, suggesting a higher likelihood of leading at that point...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% San Diego Padres

Early-inning home advantage typically mirrors full-game trends when both clubs are evenly rested. Toronto's recent form shows more late-inni...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% San Diego Padres

Without specific starting pitcher information, a slight lean towards the home team is made, assuming their recent defensive performance (few...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% over

I am predicting over 2.5 runs in the first five innings. Without knowing the starting pitchers' effectiveness or potential early game moment...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Diego Padres

The first five innings heavily depend on starting pitchers. Assuming the Padres have a slight advantage in the starting pitching matchup (ba...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Toronto Blue Jays

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Diego Padres

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Toronto Blue Jays

56
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Toronto Blue Jays

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Toronto Blue Jays

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

San Diego Padres

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

San Diego Padres

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1223–997 · 55%
-800.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 737–629 · 54%
-408.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 974–993 · 50%
-751.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1339–1374 · 49%
-1,188.7u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1337–1416 · 49%
-1,107.4u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1035–1109 · 48%
-946.0u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 1074–1193 · 47%
-991.8u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0046d6472e004172…
Kickoff
Sun, Jul 12 · 20:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 12116,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-12T20:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 12 Jul 2026 20:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
        "home": "San Diego Padres"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWLLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 28
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWLWL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 19,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 4,
            "home": 3
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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