JSK vs Simba

Final: 1 – 0

Picks locked at Jun 13 · 07:32 GMT+0000 36 picks recorded · 18 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    6f7617334f52a8b2…

Sport: Sun, Jun 14 · 14:00 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals_2.5 · btts · spreads_-1 · asian_handicap · ht_ft
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 6. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 6, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 1609,
        "sport": "football",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "Ligue 1",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T13:00:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 13:00:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Simba",
        "home": "JSK"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T07:30:14+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals_2.5",
        "btts",
        "spreads_-1",
        "asian_handicap",
        "ht_ft"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

6 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Both teams to score ?	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Asian handicap ?	Spread ?	Half-time / Full-time ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	55% No W	62% JSK W	58% Under 2.5 W	60% JSK -0.5 V	52% JSK V	45% JSK/JSK V
Both teams to score ? 55% No Both teams scoring requires sustained attacking play from both sides and generally weaker defenses. In the absence of current form and team... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 62% JSK JSK is listed as home team in Ligue 1, which provides a typical 3–5% home-ground advantage. Without access to current form, injuries, or hea... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 58% Under 2.5 Ligue 1 mid-season and cross-regional matchups often feature tight, defensive setups, especially if teams are fatigued or unfamiliar with ea... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 60% JSK -0.5 Asian handicap at -0.5 (JSK to win or draw) is less demanding than -1 and aligns more naturally with home advantage. This pick reflects conf... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% JSK A -1 spread (JSK to win by at least 2) is a higher barrier than simple home advantage. While JSK has home-ground benefit, winning by 2+ goal... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 45% JSK/JSK Half-time/full-time results are highly dependent on early momentum and team intensity. JSK/JSK (JSK leading and winning) is the most probabl... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Both teams to score ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Asian handicap ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Half-time / Full-time ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	53% yes L	52% JSK L	55% over L	52% home_-0.5 V	48% home_-1 V	30% home_home V
Both teams to score ? 53% yes Both teams typically concede in their domestic games per historical patterns. Training cutoff leaves no updated lineups or form. Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 52% JSK JSK listed as home side in this fixture. Training data through 2025-09 indicates home sides win roughly half of similar low-info African clu... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Limited data on both sides suggests open matches; training knowledge points to slight lean toward over 2.5 goals in comparable fixtures. Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 52% home_-0.5 Standard home favorite status in absence of other data. Prediction drawn solely from training knowledge through 2025. Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% home_-1 Home advantage gives JSK a narrow edge on -1 spread but away side retains value. All inputs from pre-2026 knowledge only. Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 30% home_home Home win to home win remains most probable double result on historical averages. No live data available beyond 2025 training cutoff. Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	55% no W	38% JSK L	58% under W	55% JSK V	45% Simba V	28% Draw/Home V
Both teams to score ? 55% no Aligning with the expectation of a low-scoring, tight match, it's more probable that at least one team will fail to score. Defensive solidit... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 38% JSK Based on my training data through early 2024, JS Kabylie generally holds a slightly stronger historical standing in African club competition... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 58% under Matches between competitive African clubs, especially without clear dominant form, often tend to be cagey and low-scoring affairs. My traini... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% JSK Assuming an Asian Handicap 0.0 (Draw No Bet) due to no specific line being provided, this prediction aligns with the slight historical compe... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 45% Simba Considering a tight contest and the strong historical competitive level of both teams from my training data, it is unlikely JSK will win by... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 28% Draw/Home Many competitive football matches, especially in continental competitions, often see a cautious first half ending in a draw. Based on my gen... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	58% yes L	45% Simba L	55% over L	52% Simba V	48% Simba V	38% draw-away V
Both teams to score ? 58% yes The attacking styles of both JSK and Simba, coupled with their defensive vulnerabilities, indicate that both teams are likely to find the ba... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 45% Simba Based on training data, Simba has historically performed better against JSK in head-to-head encounters. Simba is also generally the stronger... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Both JSK and Simba have demonstrated a tendency to score and concede goals in their recent matches. This suggests a higher likelihood of the... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 52% Simba Simba is the stronger team and is expected to win. An Asian Handicap of 0 for Simba offers good value as it covers a win and pushes on a dra... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% Simba While Simba is favored, JSK is expected to put up a fight at home. Simba might win, but covering a -1 handicap is less certain due to JSK's... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 38% draw-away Simba is expected to win, but JSK is capable of holding them off for the first half. A draw at halftime followed by a Simba victory in the s... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	55% Both teams to score - Yes L	45% JSK W	50% Under 2.5 W	55% Simba +0.5 V	30% JSK -1 V	30% JSK / JSK V
Both teams to score ? 55% Both teams to score - Yes Generic league statistics show a slight tendency for BTTS in domestic competitions, but specific team data is absent. Slight lean towards Ye... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 45% JSK JSK typically have strong home support in Ligue 1, while Simba are less familiar in this league. However, current form data is unavailable d... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 50% Under 2.5 With no recent form data, league averages suggest Ligue 1 matches often hover around 2.5 goals. Given uncertainty, both outcomes are equally... Unlock reasoning · Pro Asian handicap ? 55% Simba +0.5 Without clear form, Simba at +0.5 offers value as underdog. JSK's home advantage is offset by uncertainty, making Simba covering a slight fa... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 30% JSK -1 The -1 handicap requires JSK to win by two clear goals, which is unlikely without strong form evidence. Home win by a narrow margin is more... Unlock reasoning · Pro Half-time / Full-time ? 30% JSK / JSK Home win at halftime and fulltime is the most likely single outcome from the limited conditions. However, low confidence due to lack of spec... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	No 2/6	JSK 5/6	Under 2.5 3/6	JSK -0.5 2/6	JSK -1 2/6	JSK/JSK 1/6